Union Berlin
Attack—
Defense risk—
Union Berlin
9th · 24 pts · 18 played
WWDDD
0–3Full time
Borussia Dortmund
2nd · 39 pts · 18 played
DWDWW
Our take
Borussia Dortmund were slight favourites.
Borussia Dortmund were the stronger side on L90 Strength (81 vs 46). Borussia Dortmund usually keep the ball (54% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Union Berlin had 6.1 days of rest, Borussia Dortmund 7.1 and had to travel 422 km.
Away travel422 kmRest days6.1 · 7.1Matches / 14d2 · 2
Union Berlin22%
Draw24%
Borussia Dortmund55%
Union Berlin22%
Draw25%
Borussia Dortmund53%
Union Berlin21%
Draw24%
Borussia Dortmund55%
Union Berlin16%
Draw21%
Borussia Dortmund62%
Union Berlin22%
Draw25%
Borussia Dortmund53%
Over 2.5 58%
Both score 58%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Berlin)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanyRobert Hartmann
- Cards per match 4.0
- Penalties per match 0.31
- Matches 59
Team strength
Union BerlinBorussia Dortmund
46
L90 StrengthIn forecast
81
39
Current StrengthIn forecast
80
42
AttackIn forecast
69
41
DefenceIn forecast
80
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisBorussia Dortmund
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Union BerlinBorussia Dortmund
1.33
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.94
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.94
1.29
xGVia Att/Def
1.61
1.24
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.90
+0.04
Goals minus xGContext
+0.33
72%
Scored inContext
100%
22%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
12.72
ShotsContext
12.06
3.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.56
28%
On target shareContext
38%
9.50
Shots in the boxContext
8.56
74%
Box shareContext
72%
11%
ConversionContext
16%
1.86
OffsidesContext
1.77
12.00
Shots allowedContext
10.00
4.28
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.47
3.67
BlocksContext
2.81
3.13
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.69
69%
Save rateContext
74%
39%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
322
PassesContext
503
235
Accurate passesContext
429
73%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.77
Team ratingContext
6.98
12.67
FoulsContext
10.72
10.06
Fouls sufferedContext
10.61
2.33
Yellow cardsContext
1.89
0.11
Red cardsContext
0.11
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.20
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.10
1.37
xGVia Att/Def
1.83
0.87
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.10
-0.07
Goals minus xGContext
+0.37
90%
Scored inContext
90%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
13.30
ShotsContext
11.30
3.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.00
26%
On target shareContext
44%
10.40
Shots in the boxContext
8.70
78%
Box shareContext
75%
10%
ConversionContext
20%
1.86
OffsidesContext
1.40
9.70
Shots allowedContext
11.00
3.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.70
2.75
BlocksContext
3.33
2.63
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.60
72%
Save rateContext
70%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
356
PassesContext
491
264
Accurate passesContext
417
74%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.79
Team ratingContext
6.99
12.00
FoulsContext
10.00
8.90
Fouls sufferedContext
10.40
2.40
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Union Berlin
Rest6.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km2,013 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Borussia Dortmund
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel422 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Union Berlin |
Borussia Dortmund |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 5 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.1Bundesliga 2025-2026, 18 Jan | 7.1Bundesliga 2025-2026, 17 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 422 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 2,013 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 0 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.9 | 8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Union Berlin
Confirmed XI
1F. Rønnow(G)
4Diogo Leite
14L. Querfeld
5D. Doekhi
18J. Juranović
6A. Kemlein
8R. Khedira
19J. Haberer
10Ilyas Ansah
11W. Jeong
23A. Ilić
Borussia Dortmund
Confirmed XI
1G. Kobel(G)
4N. Schlotterbeck
3W. Anton
23E. Can
24D. Svensson
8F. Nmecha
7J. Bellingham
26J. Ryerson
21Fábio Silva
14M. Beier
9S. Guirassy
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Union Berlin
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Borussia Dortmund
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Union Berlin+0.4 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Borussia Dortmund-0.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Union Berlin · Home
1.44points per game · 9 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-4-2
- Scored
- 1.67
- Conceded
- 1.44
Borussia Dortmund · Away
1.78points per game · 9 away games
- W-D-L
- 4-4-1
- Scored
- 1.78
- Conceded
- 1.22
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Union Berlin | Borussia Dortmund |
|---|---|---|
| VfB Stuttgart | D 1–1 AW 2–1 H | D 3–3 H |
| FC Augsburg | D 1–1 A | W 1–0 A |
| FSV Mainz 05 | D 2–2 H | W 2–0 A |
| 1.FC Köln | W 1–0 A | W 1–0 H |
| RB Leipzig | W 3–1 H | D 1–1 H |
| VfL Wolfsburg | L 1–3 A | W 1–0 H |
| 1. FC Heidenheim | L 1–2 H | W 2–0 A |
| FC St. Pauli | W 1–0 A | W 3–2 HD 3–3 A |
| Bayern München | D 2–2 H | L 1–2 A |
| SC Freiburg | D 0–0 H | D 1–1 A |
| Werder Bremen | L 0–1 A | W 3–0 H |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | W 3–1 H | W 2–0 H |
| Bayer Leverkusen | L 0–2 A | W 2–1 A |
| Hamburger SV | D 0–0 H | D 1–1 A |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | W 4–3 A | D 3–3 A |
| 1899 Hoffenheim | L 2–4 H | W 2–0 H |
| Points | 24 of 51 · 1.41 per game | 36 of 51 · 2.12 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings
2 Union Berlin wins0 draws7 Borussia Dortmund wins
Goals per game1.00 – 2.78
Over 2.578%
Both scored44%
Clean sheets11% · 44%
- 31 Aug 2025Borussia Dortmund3–0Union Berlin
- 22 Feb 2025Borussia Dortmund6–0Union Berlin
- 5 Oct 2024Union Berlin2–1Borussia Dortmund
- 2 Mar 2024Union Berlin0–2Borussia Dortmund
- 7 Oct 2023Borussia Dortmund4–2Union Berlin
- 8 Apr 2023Borussia Dortmund2–1Union Berlin
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Union Berlin | Borussia Dortmund | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.33 | 1.94 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 0.94 | |
| Match goals | 2.83 | 2.89 | 3.00 |
| Over 1.5 | 72% | 83% | |
| Over 2.5 | 56% | 44% | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | 39% | 22% | |
| Both teams scored | 61% | 50% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 22% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 28% | 0% | |
| Games | 18 | 18 |
| Union Berlin | Borussia Dortmund | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.30 | 2.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 1.10 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 3.20 | 3.00 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Union Berlin | Borussia Dortmund | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.71 | 5.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.41 | 4.29 | |
| Match total | 9.12 | 9.29 | 9.69 |
| Over 8.5 | 71% 12/17 | 53% 9/17 | |
| Over 9.5 | 53% 9/17 | 41% 7/17 | |
| Over 10.5 | 24% 4/17 | 24% 4/17 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.50 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.06 | 1.83 | |
| Match total | 4.56 | 3.83 | 3.93 |
| Over 3.5 | 67% 12/18 | 61% 11/18 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 9/18 | 39% 7/18 | |
| Union Berlin | Borussia Dortmund | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.44 | 4.78 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.00 | 4.22 | |
| Match total | 8.44 | 9.00 | 9.69 |
| Over 8.5 | 78% 7/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 4/9 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 11% 1/9 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.50 | 2.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 4.30 | 3.60 | 3.93 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Robert Hartmann Germany · 59 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.75league 3.76
Red cards0.24league 0.18
Cards 5+37%league 39%
Fouls22.8league 21.0
Penalties0.31league 0.32
Home wins46%league 45%
Union Berlin6 with this referee
Record4-1-1
Cards · opp.2.5 · 1.8
Pens for · against1 · 1
Reds3
- W23 Aug 25H · VfB Stuttgart2–14
- L11 Jan 25A · 1. FC Heidenheim0–22
- W17 Feb 24A · 1899 Hoffenheim1–04
- W21 Jan 23H · 1899 Hoffenheim3–12
- W27 Aug 22A · FC Schalke 046–10
Borussia Dortmund2 with this referee
Record0-1-1
Cards · opp.5.5 · 2.5
Pens for · against2 · 1
Reds1
- D31 Aug 24A · Werder Bremen0–07
- L30 Apr 22H · VfL Bochum3–44
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Union Berlin18 games · scored 24 · conceded 27
2
1
0-15
3
2
16-30
4
8
31-45
4
6
46-60
3
2
61-75
8
8
76-90
Borussia Dortmund18 games · scored 35 · conceded 17
3
1
0-15
3
2
16-30
12
31-45
3
2
46-60
5
5
61-75
9
7
76-90
Union Berlin10 games · scored 13 · conceded 12
1
0-15
1
2
16-30
2
2
31-45
1
3
46-60
2
1
61-75
7
3
76-90
Borussia Dortmund10 games · scored 22 · conceded 11
3
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
5
2
31-45
5
46-60
2
5
61-75
6
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
