Bundesliga Gameweek 19 Sat, Jan 24 · 17:30 Stadion An der Alten Försterei, Berlin
Union Berlin 9th · 24 pts · 18 played
0–3Full time
Borussia Dortmund 2nd · 39 pts · 18 played
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Union Berlin21.7%fair odds 4.60
Draw23.5%fair odds 4.25
Borussia Dortmund54.7%fair odds 1.83
Expected goals1.12 – 1.88total 3.00
Likeliest score1–111.0%

Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.

Match Opportunity

How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.

Union Berlin

— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.

Borussia Dortmund

— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.

About this comparison

The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.

Score matrix

Union Berlin ↓ · Borussia Dortmund →0123456+
05.58.88.85.52.61.00.4
15.011.09.96.22.91.10.5
23.15.85.53.51.60.60.3
31.22.22.01.30.60.20.1
40.30.60.60.40.20.10.0
50.10.10.10.10.00.00.0
6+0.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Union Berlin goals, columns Borussia Dortmund goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.

Most likely scores

  • 1–111.0%9.07
  • 1–29.9%10.14
  • 0–28.8%11.31
  • 0–18.8%11.32
  • 1–36.2%16.15
  • 2–15.8%17.12
  • 0–35.5%18.02
  • 0–05.5%18.05
  • 2–25.5%18.18
  • 1–05.0%19.98

Winning margin

2.5% Union Berlin by 3+ fair 39.89
5.9% Union Berlin by 2 fair 16.86
13.3% Union Berlin by 1 fair 7.53
23.5% Draw fair 4.25
22.8% Borussia Dortmund by 1 fair 4.38
16.9% Borussia Dortmund by 2 fair 5.92
15.0% Borussia Dortmund by 3+ fair 6.66

Goal distribution

Total goals

6%0
14%1
23%2
22%3
17%4
18%5+

Union Berlin goals

33%0
37%1
20%2
8%3
3%4+

Borussia Dortmund goals

15%0
29%1
27%2
17%3
12%4+

LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda

LOAD90EloLambdaChange
Union Berlin win 21.7% 22.4% -0.6 pp
Draw 23.5% 24.7% -1.2 pp
Borussia Dortmund win 54.7% 52.9% +1.8 pp
Over 2.5 57.7% 53.5% +4.2 pp
Both teams score 57.6% 54.7% +2.8 pp
Expected goals Union Berlin 1.12 1.06 +0.05
Expected goals Borussia Dortmund 1.88 1.75 +0.13

EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.

All markets model probability and fair odds

Result

  • Union Berlin win21.7%4.60
  • Draw23.5%4.25
  • Borussia Dortmund win54.7%1.83
  • Double chance Union Berlin or draw45.3%2.21
  • Double chance Union Berlin or Borussia Dortmund76.5%1.31
  • Double chance Borussia Dortmund or draw78.3%1.28
  • Draw no bet Union Berlin28.4%3.52
  • Draw no bet Borussia Dortmund71.6%1.40

Goals

  • Over 0.594.5%1.06
  • Over 1.580.6%1.24
  • Over 2.557.7%1.73
  • Over 3.535.3%2.84
  • Over 4.518.5%5.42
  • Under 1.519.4%5.16
  • Under 2.542.3%2.36
  • Under 3.564.7%1.54

Both teams to score

  • Yes57.6%1.74
  • No42.4%2.36
  • Yes and over 2.546.5%2.15
  • Union Berlin win and yes12.1%8.29
  • Draw and yes18.0%5.56
  • Borussia Dortmund win and yes27.5%3.64

Team goals

  • Union Berlin over 0.567.2%1.49
  • Union Berlin over 1.530.7%3.26
  • Union Berlin over 2.510.3%9.73
  • Borussia Dortmund over 0.584.8%1.18
  • Borussia Dortmund over 1.556.2%1.78
  • Borussia Dortmund over 2.529.2%3.43
  • Union Berlin clean sheet15.2%6.58
  • Borussia Dortmund clean sheet32.8%3.05
  • Union Berlin win to nil9.7%10.34
  • Borussia Dortmund win to nil27.2%3.67

Handicap

  • Union Berlin −1.58.4%11.85
  • Union Berlin −2.52.5%39.89
  • Borussia Dortmund +1.591.6%1.09
  • Borussia Dortmund +2.597.5%1.03
  • Borussia Dortmund −1.531.9%3.13
  • Union Berlin +1.568.1%1.47

Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.

Model track record Bundesliga 2025-2026

All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.

Matches scored165 Favourite won55.2% Avg chance given to result42.8% 1X2 Brier0.566 Over 2.5 called right63.0% BTTS called right56.4%

Calibration · when the favourite was given…

Favourite chanceMatchesPredictedActually won
30–40%2538.2%44.0%
40–50%5145.1%39.2%
50–60%4355.0%58.1%
60–70%2665.0%76.9%
70–80%1374.3%76.9%
80%+786.7%71.4%

LOAD90 vs Bookmaker

Compared on the same 145 of 165 scored matches.

LOAD90Bookmaker
1X2 Brier (lower is better)0.55790.5494
Avg chance given to result43.3%43.2%
Favourite won56.6%56.6%

Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 145 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.

Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 165 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.