Union Berlin
Attack—
Defense risk—
Union Berlin
9th · 24 pts · 20 played
DDDLL
1–1Full time
Eintracht Frankfurt
8th · 27 pts · 20 played
DLDLL
Our take
Union Berlin were slight favourites.
Eintracht Frankfurt were the stronger side on L90 Strength (52 vs 43). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Union Berlin. Union Berlin had 6.2 days of rest, Eintracht Frankfurt 6.2 and had to travel 424 km.
Away travel424 kmRest days6.2 · 6.2Matches / 14d2 · 2
Union Berlin42%
Draw27%
Eintracht Frankfurt31%
Union Berlin39%
Draw27%
Eintracht Frankfurt34%
Union Berlin42%
Draw27%
Eintracht Frankfurt31%
Union Berlin35%
Draw27%
Eintracht Frankfurt38%
Union Berlin42%
Draw27%
Eintracht Frankfurt31%
Over 2.5 52%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Berlin)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanySören Storks
- Cards per match 4.5
- Penalties per match 0.26
- Matches 27
Team strength
Union BerlinEintracht Frankfurt
43
L90 StrengthIn forecast
52
39
Current StrengthIn forecast
48
42
AttackIn forecast
54
41
DefenceIn forecast
37
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisEintracht Frankfurt
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Union BerlinEintracht Frankfurt
1.25
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
1.65
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.25
1.30
xGVia Att/Def
1.28
1.27
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.34
-0.05
Goals minus xGContext
+0.72
70%
Scored inContext
90%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
15%
12.75
ShotsContext
11.80
3.45
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.40
27%
On target shareContext
37%
9.55
Shots in the boxContext
8.20
75%
Box shareContext
70%
10%
ConversionContext
17%
1.87
OffsidesContext
1.69
11.90
Shots allowedContext
11.65
4.25
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.79
3.53
BlocksContext
2.53
2.94
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.56
65%
Save rateContext
52%
40%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
322
PassesContext
476
233
Accurate passesContext
393
72%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.74
Team ratingContext
6.74
12.75
FoulsContext
10.30
10.35
Fouls sufferedContext
9.65
2.20
Yellow cardsContext
1.65
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.30
1.44
xGVia Att/Def
1.11
0.96
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.42
-0.24
Goals minus xGContext
+0.39
90%
Scored inContext
90%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
13.60
ShotsContext
8.70
3.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.90
25%
On target shareContext
45%
10.90
Shots in the boxContext
6.70
80%
Box shareContext
75%
9%
ConversionContext
17%
1.83
OffsidesContext
3.25
9.70
Shots allowedContext
13.10
3.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.00
2.63
BlocksContext
3.78
2.25
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
60%
Save rateContext
60%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
371
PassesContext
415
275
Accurate passesContext
331
74%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.71
Team ratingContext
6.65
12.10
FoulsContext
11.90
9.70
Fouls sufferedContext
9.00
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Union Berlin
Rest6.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km966 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Eintracht Frankfurt
Rest6.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel424 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Union Berlin |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.2Bundesliga 2025-2026, 31 Jan | 6.2Bundesliga 2025-2026, 31 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 424 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 966 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 5 | 1 / 2 / 5 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.8 | 7.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Union Berlin
Confirmed XI
1F. Rønnow(G)
39D. Köhn
34S. Nsoki
14L. Querfeld
5D. Doekhi
28C. Trimmel
6A. Kemlein
8R. Khedira
13A. Schäfer
10Ilyas Ansah
11W. Jeong
Eintracht Frankfurt
Confirmed XI
40Kauã Santos(G)
3A. Theate
4R. Koch
13R. Kristensen
21N. Brown
16H. Larsson
6O. Højlund
20R. Doan
8F. Chaïbi
27M. Götze
25A. Kalimuendo
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Union Berlin
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Eintracht Frankfurt
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Union Berlin+0.5 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Eintracht Frankfurt-0.4 pp
Home / Away this season
Union Berlin · Home
1.30points per game · 10 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-4-3
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 1.60
Eintracht Frankfurt · Away
1.30points per game · 10 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-4-3
- Scored
- 2.30
- Conceded
- 2.70
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Union Berlin | Eintracht Frankfurt |
|---|---|---|
| 1899 Hoffenheim | L 1–3 AL 2–4 H | L 1–3 HW 3–1 A |
| Borussia Dortmund | L 0–3 HL 0–3 A | D 3–3 H |
| VfB Stuttgart | D 1–1 AW 2–1 H | L 2–3 A |
| FC Augsburg | D 1–1 A | W 1–0 H |
| FSV Mainz 05 | D 2–2 H | W 1–0 H |
| 1.FC Köln | W 1–0 A | W 4–3 A |
| RB Leipzig | W 3–1 H | L 0–6 A |
| VfL Wolfsburg | L 1–3 A | D 1–1 H |
| 1. FC Heidenheim | L 1–2 H | D 1–1 A |
| FC St. Pauli | W 1–0 A | W 2–0 H |
| Bayern München | D 2–2 H | L 0–3 H |
| SC Freiburg | D 0–0 H | D 2–2 A |
| Werder Bremen | L 0–1 A | D 3–3 AW 4–1 H |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | W 3–1 H | W 6–4 A |
| Bayer Leverkusen | L 0–2 A | L 1–3 HL 1–3 A |
| Hamburger SV | D 0–0 H | D 1–1 A |
| Points | 21 of 57 · 1.11 per game | 27 of 57 · 1.42 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings
4 Union Berlin wins2 draws3 Eintracht Frankfurt wins
Goals per game1.33 – 1.33
Over 2.544%
Both scored44%
Clean sheets33% · 33%
- 21 Sep 2025Eintracht Frankfurt3–4Union Berlin
- 9 Mar 2025Eintracht Frankfurt1–2Union Berlin
- 27 Oct 2024Union Berlin1–1Eintracht Frankfurt
- 30 Mar 2024Eintracht Frankfurt0–0Union Berlin
- 4 Nov 2023Union Berlin0–3Eintracht Frankfurt
- 19 Mar 2023Union Berlin2–0Eintracht Frankfurt
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Union Berlin | Eintracht Frankfurt | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.25 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.65 | 2.25 | |
| Match goals | 2.90 | 4.25 | 2.77 |
| Over 1.5 | 75% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 70% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 65% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 75% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 15% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 10% | |
| Games | 20 | 20 |
| Union Berlin | Eintracht Frankfurt | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.20 | 1.70 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 2.60 | |
| Match goals | 2.80 | 4.30 | 2.77 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 70% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 70% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 80% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Union Berlin | Eintracht Frankfurt | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.11 | 4.61 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.21 | 3.83 | |
| Match total | 9.32 | 8.44 | 9.70 |
| Over 8.5 | 74% 14/19 | 50% 9/18 | |
| Over 9.5 | 53% 10/19 | 44% 8/18 | |
| Over 10.5 | 26% 5/19 | 28% 5/18 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.35 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.10 | |
| Match total | 4.35 | 3.80 | 3.91 |
| Over 3.5 | 65% 13/20 | 60% 12/20 | |
| Over 4.5 | 45% 9/20 | 35% 7/20 | |
| Union Berlin | Eintracht Frankfurt | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.11 | 3.38 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.56 | 5.63 | |
| Match total | 8.67 | 9.01 | 9.70 |
| Over 8.5 | 78% 7/9 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 3/9 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 22% 2/9 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.70 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 3.50 | 3.60 | 3.91 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Sören Storks Germany · 27 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.26league 3.75
Red cards0.19league 0.18
Cards 5+56%league 38%
Fouls21.6league 21.1
Penalties0.26league 0.35
Home wins44%league 45%
Union Berlin4 with this referee
Record1-2-1
Cards · opp.3.8 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D1 Nov 25H · SC Freiburg0–07
- D3 May 25H · Werder Bremen2–21
- W30 Mar 25A · SC Freiburg2–14
- L26 Jan 25A · FC St. Pauli0–33
Eintracht Frankfurt1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.4.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W2 Mar 24A · 1. FC Heidenheim2–14
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Union Berlin20 games · scored 25 · conceded 33
2
2
0-15
3
2
16-30
4
10
31-45
4
8
46-60
4
2
61-75
8
9
76-90
Eintracht Frankfurt20 games · scored 40 · conceded 45
4
7
0-15
8
5
16-30
8
6
31-45
9
7
46-60
4
6
61-75
7
14
76-90
Union Berlin10 games · scored 12 · conceded 16
2
0-15
2
16-30
2
3
31-45
1
5
46-60
3
1
61-75
6
3
76-90
Eintracht Frankfurt10 games · scored 15 · conceded 23
3
2
0-15
4
4
16-30
2
31-45
2
5
46-60
2
2
61-75
4
8
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
