Union Berlin
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Union Berlin
9th · 24 pts · 20 played
DDDLL
1–1Full time
Eintracht Frankfurt
8th · 27 pts · 20 played
DLDLL
Union Berlin42.4%fair odds 2.36
Draw26.5%fair odds 3.77
Eintracht Frankfurt31.1%fair odds 3.22
Expected goals1.51 – 1.26total 2.77
Likeliest score1–112.6%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Eintracht Frankfurt
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Union Berlin ↓ · Eintracht Frankfurt → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 7.3 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 12.6 | 7.5 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.0 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.5 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Union Berlin goals, columns Eintracht Frankfurt goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–112.6%7.96
- 2–19.0%11.11
- 1–08.9%11.30
- 1–27.5%13.32
- 0–17.3%13.73
- 2–07.2%13.99
- 0–06.9%14.45
- 2–25.7%17.66
- 0–25.0%20.08
- 3–14.5%22.11
Winning margin
8.3%
Union Berlin by 3+
fair 11.99
12.9%
Union Berlin by 2
fair 7.76
21.2%
Union Berlin by 1
fair 4.72
26.5%
Draw
fair 3.77
17.6%
Eintracht Frankfurt by 1
fair 5.69
9.0%
Eintracht Frankfurt by 2
fair 11.14
4.5%
Eintracht Frankfurt by 3+
fair 22.13
Goal distribution
Total goals
7%0
16%1
25%2
22%3
15%4
15%5+
Union Berlin goals
22%0
33%1
25%2
13%3
7%4+
Eintracht Frankfurt goals
28%0
36%1
22%2
9%3
4%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Union Berlin win | 42.4% | 42.2% | +0.2 pp |
| Draw | 26.5% | 27.1% | -0.6 pp |
| Eintracht Frankfurt win | 31.1% | 30.7% | +0.4 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 52.2% | 49.6% | +2.7 pp |
| Both teams score | 56.4% | 54.3% | +2.1 pp |
| Expected goals Union Berlin | 1.51 | 1.45 | +0.06 |
| Expected goals Eintracht Frankfurt | 1.26 | 1.20 | +0.06 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Union Berlin win42.4%2.36
- Draw26.5%3.77
- Eintracht Frankfurt win31.1%3.22
- Double chance Union Berlin or draw68.9%1.45
- Double chance Union Berlin or Eintracht Frankfurt73.5%1.36
- Double chance Eintracht Frankfurt or draw57.6%1.74
- Draw no bet Union Berlin57.7%1.73
- Draw no bet Eintracht Frankfurt42.3%2.37
Goals
- Over 0.593.1%1.07
- Over 1.576.9%1.30
- Over 2.552.2%1.91
- Over 3.530.1%3.33
- Over 4.514.7%6.80
- Under 1.523.1%4.34
- Under 2.547.8%2.09
- Under 3.569.9%1.43
Both teams to score
- Yes56.4%1.77
- No43.6%2.29
- Yes and over 2.543.8%2.28
- Union Berlin win and yes20.9%4.78
- Draw and yes19.6%5.11
- Eintracht Frankfurt win and yes15.9%6.30
Team goals
- Union Berlin over 0.577.9%1.28
- Union Berlin over 1.544.5%2.25
- Union Berlin over 2.519.3%5.18
- Eintracht Frankfurt over 0.571.6%1.40
- Eintracht Frankfurt over 1.535.8%2.79
- Eintracht Frankfurt over 2.513.3%7.50
- Union Berlin clean sheet28.4%3.52
- Eintracht Frankfurt clean sheet22.1%4.52
- Union Berlin win to nil21.5%4.65
- Eintracht Frankfurt win to nil15.2%6.57
Handicap
- Union Berlin −1.521.2%4.71
- Union Berlin −2.58.3%11.99
- Eintracht Frankfurt +1.578.8%1.27
- Eintracht Frankfurt +2.591.7%1.09
- Eintracht Frankfurt −1.513.5%7.41
- Union Berlin +1.586.5%1.16
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Bundesliga 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored179
Favourite won56.4%
Avg chance given to result43.1%
1X2 Brier0.562
Over 2.5 called right63.1%
BTTS called right57.0%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 25 | 38.2% | 44.0% |
| 40–50% | 55 | 45.2% | 41.8% |
| 50–60% | 50 | 55.1% | 60.0% |
| 60–70% | 27 | 64.9% | 77.8% |
| 70–80% | 14 | 74.5% | 71.4% |
| 80%+ | 8 | 85.8% | 75.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 159 of 179 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5543 | 0.5513 |
| Avg chance given to result | 43.5% | 43.1% |
| Favourite won | 57.9% | 57.9% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 159 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 179 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.