Union Berlin vs FSV Mainz 05 – 10 Jan 2026

Bundesliga Gameweek 16 Sat, Jan 10 · 14:30 Stadion An der Alten Försterei, Berlin

Union Berlin 8th · 21 pts · 15 played WLLWW

2–2Full time

FSV Mainz 05 18th · 8 pts · 15 played DLLDD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Union Berlin were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Union Berlin had 21 days of rest, FSV Mainz 05 20 and had to travel 455 km.

Away travel455 kmRest days21 · 20Matches / 14d0 · 0

Union Berlin43%

Draw27%

FSV Mainz 0531%

Expected goals 1.51 – 1.24

Union Berlin43%

Draw27%

FSV Mainz 0530%

Expected goals 1.49 – 1.20

Union Berlin43%

Draw27%

FSV Mainz 0531%

Expected goals 1.51 – 1.24

Union Berlin36%

Draw27%

FSV Mainz 0538%

Expected goals 1.35 – 1.39

Union Berlin43%

Draw27%

FSV Mainz 0530%

Expected goals 1.49 – 1.20

Over 2.5 52% Both score 56% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Berlin)

No weather data yet

Referee · GermanyBastian Dankert

Cards per match 3.6
Penalties per match 0.23
Matches 71

Team strength

Union Berlin

FSV Mainz 05

45 L90 StrengthIn forecast 46

39 Current StrengthIn forecast 55

42 AttackIn forecast 68

41 DefenceIn forecast 56

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Union Berlin

Attack—

Defense risk—

FSV Mainz 05

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Union Berlin

FSV Mainz 05

1.33 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.87

1.53 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.73

1.17 xGVia Att/Def 1.11

1.26 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.73

+0.16 Goals minus xGContext -0.24

67% Scored inContext 47%

27% Clean sheetsContext 7%

11.87 ShotsContext 10.53

3.53 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 2.64

30% On target shareContext 23%

8.60 Shots in the boxContext 8.50

73% Box shareContext 72%

11% ConversionContext 8%

1.86 OffsidesContext 2.69

12.40 Shots allowedContext 15.07

4.20 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.33

3.79 BlocksContext 4.36

3.15 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.47

70% Save rateContext 65%

36% PossessionIn forecast 46%

301 PassesContext 375

217 Accurate passesContext 283

72% Pass accuracyContext 75%

6.77 Team ratingContext 6.75

12.73 FoulsContext 11.47

10.60 Fouls sufferedContext 10.87

2.60 Yellow cardsContext 2.27

0.07 Red cardsContext 0.27

This league season, per match · 15 and 15 games

1.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.80

1.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20

1.04 xGVia Att/Def 1.00

0.94 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.77

+0.16 Goals minus xGContext -0.20

70% Scored inContext 50%

30% Clean sheetsContext 20%

11.80 ShotsContext 9.20

3.40 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 2.44

29% On target shareContext 24%

8.50 Shots in the boxContext 7.67

72% Box shareContext 70%

10% ConversionContext 9%

1.67 OffsidesContext 1.67

11.20 Shots allowedContext 14.40

2.70 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.10

3.50 BlocksContext 4.80

2.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.80

70% Save rateContext 75%

39% PossessionIn forecast 42%

318 PassesContext 361

232 Accurate passesContext 270

73% Pass accuracyContext 75%

6.78 Team ratingContext 6.78

12.30 FoulsContext 12.00

9.30 Fouls sufferedContext 9.90

2.90 Yellow cardsContext 2.10

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.20

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Union Berlin

Rest21 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

FSV Mainz 05

Rest20 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel455 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Union Berlin	FSV Mainz 05
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	21Bundesliga 2025-2026, 20 Dec	20Bundesliga 2025-2026, 21 Dec
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	455 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 0 / 1	0 / 0 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	5.2	3.2

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Union Berlin Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

1F. Rønnow(G)

4Diogo Leite 14L. Querfeld 5D. Doekhi

39D. Köhn 6A. Kemlein 8R. Khedira 19J. Haberer

9Livan Burcu 7O. Burke

23A. Ilić

FSV Mainz 05 Confirmed XI

3-5-2

33D. Batz(G)

31D. Kohr 16S. Bell 21D. da Costa

22N. Veratschnig 7J. Lee 6K. Sano 10N. Amiri 30S. Widmer

20P. Tietz 17B. Hollerbach

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Union Berlin Absences are shown before kick-off

FSV Mainz 05 Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Union Berlin+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
FSV Mainz 05+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Union Berlin · Home 1.50points per game · 8 home games

W-D-L: 3-3-2
Scored: 1.63
Conceded: 1.38

FSV Mainz 05 · Away 0.71points per game · 7 away games

W-D-L: 1-2-4
Scored: 1.14
Conceded: 2.14

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 14 this season

Opponent	Union Berlin	FSV Mainz 05
1.FC Köln	W 1–0 A	L 0–1 H
RB Leipzig	W 3–1 H	L 0–1 H
VfL Wolfsburg	L 1–3 A	D 1–1 A
FC St. Pauli	W 1–0 A	D 0–0 H
Bayern München	D 2–2 H	D 2–2 A
SC Freiburg	D 0–0 H	L 0–4 A
Werder Bremen	L 0–1 A	D 1–1 H
Borussia Mönchengladbach	W 3–1 H	L 0–1 H
Bayer Leverkusen	L 0–2 A	L 3–4 H
Hamburger SV	D 0–0 H	L 0–4 A
Eintracht Frankfurt	W 4–3 A	L 0–1 A
1899 Hoffenheim	L 2–4 H	D 1–1 H
Borussia Dortmund	L 0–3 A	L 0–2 H
VfB Stuttgart	W 2–1 H	L 1–2 A
Points	21 of 42 · 1.50 per game	5 of 42 · 0.36 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings

5 Union Berlin wins3 draws0 FSV Mainz 05 wins

Goals per game1.88 – 0.88 Over 2.563% Both scored88% Clean sheets13% · 13%

19 Jan 2025Union Berlin2–1FSV Mainz 05
24 Aug 2024FSV Mainz 051–1Union Berlin
7 Feb 2024FSV Mainz 051–1Union Berlin
20 Aug 2023Union Berlin4–1FSV Mainz 05
4 Feb 2023Union Berlin2–1FSV Mainz 05
14 Aug 2022FSV Mainz 050–0Union Berlin

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Union Berlin	FSV Mainz 05	Forecast
Scored per game	1.33	0.87
Conceded per game	1.53	1.73
Match goals	2.87	2.60	2.75
Over 1.5	67%	67%
Over 2.5	60%	40%	52%
Over 3.5	40%	33%
Both teams scored	53%	47%	56%
Clean sheets	27%	7%
Failed to score	33%	53%
Games	15	15

	Union Berlin	FSV Mainz 05	Forecast
Scored per game	1.20	0.80
Conceded per game	1.20	2.00
Match goals	2.40	2.80	2.75
Over 1.5	60%	70%
Over 2.5	50%	50%	52%
Over 3.5	40%	40%
Both teams scored	50%	50%	56%
Clean sheets	30%	10%
Failed to score	30%	50%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Union Berlin	FSV Mainz 05	League
Corners
Corners won	4.79	5.46
Corners conceded	4.93	4.15
Match total	9.72	9.61	9.80
Over 8.5	79% 11/14	54% 7/13
Over 9.5	57% 8/14	54% 7/13
Over 10.5	21% 3/14	38% 5/13
Cards
Cards	2.73	2.60
Opponent cards	2.33	1.67
Match total	5.06	4.27	4.08
Over 3.5	80% 12/15	67% 10/15
Over 4.5	60% 9/15	33% 5/15

	Union Berlin	FSV Mainz 05	League
Corners
Corners won	4.67	5.33
Corners conceded	5.00	3.67
Match total	9.67	9.00	9.80
Over 8.5	89% 8/9	33% 3/9
Over 9.5	56% 5/9	33% 3/9
Over 10.5	11% 1/9	33% 3/9
Cards
Cards	2.90	2.40
Opponent cards	2.40	1.70
Match total	5.30	4.10	4.08
Over 3.5	90% 9/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	60% 6/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Bastian Dankert Germany · 71 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.46league 3.88

Red cards0.17league 0.21

Cards 5+32%league 41%

Fouls24.0league 21.2

Penalties0.23league 0.32

Home wins48%league 44%

Union Berlin7 with this referee

Record4-1-2 Cards · opp.2.1 · 1.9 Pens for · against0 · 0

D12 Apr 25A · Bayer Leverkusen0–01
L22 Feb 25A · Borussia Dortmund0–62
W30 Aug 24H · FC St. Pauli1–03
L21 Oct 23H · VfB Stuttgart0–32
W25 Jan 23A · Werder Bremen2–10

FSV Mainz 058 with this referee

Record2-2-4 Cards · opp.2.9 · 2.9 Pens for · against0 · 0 Reds1

L26 Apr 25A · Bayern München0–32
L16 Dec 23H · 1. FC Heidenheim0–13
W4 Nov 23H · RB Leipzig2–03
D27 Aug 23H · Eintracht Frankfurt1–13
D19 Mar 23H · SC Freiburg1–12

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.