Union Berlin
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards SV Elversberg. SV Elversberg were without F. Onyeka. Union Berlin had 21.8 days of rest, SV Elversberg 19.9 and had to travel 566 km. Conditions were neutral.
Away travel566 kmRest days21.8 · 19.9Matches / 14d0 · 0
Union Berlin40%
Draw25%
SV Elversberg36%
Union Berlin42%
Draw26%
SV Elversberg32%
Union Berlin40%
Draw25%
SV Elversberg35%
Union Berlin32%
Draw24%
SV Elversberg43%
Union Berlin40%
Draw24%
SV Elversberg36%
Over 2.5 56%
Both score 59%
Likeliest score 1–1
Pre-match forecast. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Berlin)
17°CMainly clear
- Precipitation 0.0 mm
- Wind 15 km/h
- Humidity 50%
Referee · GermanyTobias Reichel
- Cards per match 3.9
- Penalties per match 0.29
- Matches 59
Team strength
Union Berlin
SV Elversberg
37
L90 StrengthIn forecast
41
39
Current StrengthIn forecast
42
42
AttackIn forecast
44
41
DefenceIn forecast
37
24
Form indexContext
74
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisSV Elversberg
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Union BerlinSV Elversberg
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
4.25
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.75
1.13
xGVia Att/Def
1.38
2.70
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.02
-0.13
Goals minus xGContext
+0.62
50%
Scored inContext
75%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
25%
11.75
ShotsContext
10.25
6.67
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.50
43%
On target shareContext
44%
9.00
Shots in the boxContext
6.75
68%
Box shareContext
65%
9%
ConversionContext
20%
2.50
OffsidesContext
1.67
18.75
Shots allowedContext
21.75
9.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.25
4.75
BlocksContext
8.75
6.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.25
51%
Save rateContext
53%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
42%
372
PassesContext
379
277
Accurate passesContext
300
74%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.53
Team ratingContext
6.93
10.75
FoulsContext
11.50
10.75
Fouls sufferedContext
12.75
2.50
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.40
2.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
1.36
xGVia Att/Def
1.40
2.04
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.28
+0.24
Goals minus xGContext
+1.00
80%
Scored inContext
90%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
12.70
ShotsContext
11.20
5.56
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.70
39%
On target shareContext
42%
9.00
Shots in the boxContext
7.22
64%
Box shareContext
63%
13%
ConversionContext
21%
2.14
OffsidesContext
2.43
13.80
Shots allowedContext
14.10
6.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.50
4.43
BlocksContext
4.89
3.75
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.25
54%
Save rateContext
58%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
388
PassesContext
384
295
Accurate passesContext
309
76%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.72
Team ratingContext
6.88
10.10
FoulsContext
11.00
9.80
Fouls sufferedContext
11.30
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Union Berlin
DLLL
Rest21.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 24 · 1 pts vs 4.3 for an average club · -3.0 vs expected
SV Elversberg
WWLD
Rest19.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel566 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Form 74 · 7 pts vs 4.0 for an average club · +3.4 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Union Berlin |
SV Elversberg |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 21.8Bundesliga 2026-2027, 18 Sep | 19.9Bundesliga 2026-2027, 20 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 566 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 1 | 0 / 0 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Union Berlin
Confirmed XI
1F. Rønnow(G)
15T. Rothe
2O. Uduokhai
4Z. Van Den Bosch
19J. Haberer
8R. Khedira
20M. Aebischer
30K. Imeri
11W. Jeong
13A. Schäfer
21T. Skarke
SV Elversberg
Confirmed XI
20N. Kristof(G)
21L. Günther
31M. Rohr
19L. Pinckert
26L. Sirch
8Ł. Poręba
43F. Keidel
29T. Zimmerschied
10N. Darvich
25L. Petkov
9N. Futkeu
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Union Berlin
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.01 goals
Attack line −15.9% · Defence line −3.6% of weighted minutes
- ATT A. Ilić Rotation 6.61 Att −8.8%
- ATT O. Burke Rotation 6.71 Att −7.0%
- DEF S. Nsoki Rotation 6.58 Def −2.0%
- DEF J. Juranović Rotation 6.85 Def −1.6%
SV Elversberg
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals
Attack line −8.0% · Defence line −0.8% of weighted minutes
- ATT F. Onyeka Starter 6.29 Att −7.4%
- MID L. Schnellbacher Rotation 6.54 Att −0.7% Def −0.8%
Total impact vs full squads
- Union Berlin-0.5 pp
- Draw+0.1 pp
- SV Elversberg+0.4 pp
From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.
Home / Away this season
Union Berlin · Home
0.50points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-1
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 3.00
SV Elversberg · Away
2.00points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 1.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 3 this season
| Opponent | Union Berlin | SV Elversberg |
|---|---|---|
| Bayern München | L 0–7 A | L 1–2 H |
| FC Schalke 04 | L 1–3 H | D 0–0 A |
| Bayer Leverkusen | L 0–4 A | W 3–2 H |
| Points | 0 of 9 · 0.00 per game | 4 of 9 · 1.33 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Union Berlin | SV Elversberg | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 4.25 | 1.75 | |
| Match goals | 5.25 | 3.75 | 2.93 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 75% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 75% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 100% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 75% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 25% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 25% | |
| Games | 4 | 4 |
| Union Berlin | SV Elversberg | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.60 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.80 | 1.75 | |
| Match goals | 4.40 | 3.75 | 2.93 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 75% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 75% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 90% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 75% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 25% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 25% | |
| Games | 10 | 4 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Union Berlin | SV Elversberg | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.00 | 3.75 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.75 | 7.25 | |
| Match total | 9.75 | 11.00 | 10.89 |
| Over 8.5 | 75% 3/4 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 2/4 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 2/4 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.50 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 4.50 | 3.50 | 3.61 |
| Over 3.5 | 100% 4/4 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Over 4.5 | 25% 1/4 | 25% 1/4 | |
| Union Berlin | SV Elversberg | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.40 | 4.30 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.40 | 4.60 | |
| Match total | 10.80 | 8.90 | 10.89 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 60% 6/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.60 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 3.50 | 3.70 | 3.61 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Tobias Reichel Germany · 59 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.78league 3.54
Red cards0.10league 0.08
Cards 5+37%league 22%
Fouls24.1league 22.4
Penalties0.29league 0.16
Home wins46%league 51%
Union Berlin7 with this referee
Record3-3-1
Cards · opp.2.4 · 1.6
Pens for · against1 · 1
- W17 Oct 25H · Borussia Mönchengladbach3–15
- L2 Mar 25H · Holstein Kiel0–14
- D8 Nov 24H · SC Freiburg0–02
- W5 Oct 24H · Borussia Dortmund2–14
- D19 Feb 23H · FC Schalke 040–02
SV ElversbergNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Union Berlin4 games · scored 4 · conceded 17
1
3
0-15
3
16-30
2
31-45
3
46-60
4
61-75
3
2
76-90
SV Elversberg4 games · scored 8 · conceded 7
2
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
1
31-45
1
1
46-60
2
1
61-75
2
2
76-90
Union Berlin10 games · scored 16 · conceded 28
2
5
0-15
5
16-30
2
4
31-45
1
5
46-60
2
6
61-75
9
3
76-90
SV Elversberg10 games · scored 24 · conceded 16
6
3
0-15
5
3
16-30
3
2
31-45
2
4
46-60
4
2
61-75
4
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
