Union Berlin
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Union Berlin39.0%fair odds 2.57
Draw25.8%fair odds 3.88
SV Elversberg35.2%fair odds 2.84
Expected goals1.51 – 1.42total 2.93
Likeliest score1–112.0%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
SV Elversberg
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Union Berlin ↓ · SV Elversberg → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 7.0 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 12.0 | 8.1 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.6 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.3 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Union Berlin goals, columns SV Elversberg goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–112.0%8.30
- 2–18.6%11.59
- 1–28.1%12.27
- 1–07.4%13.47
- 0–17.0%14.33
- 2–26.1%16.27
- 2–06.1%16.50
- 0–05.9%16.86
- 0–25.4%18.52
- 3–14.3%23.04
Winning margin
7.5%
Union Berlin by 3+
fair 13.40
11.7%
Union Berlin by 2
fair 8.51
19.8%
Union Berlin by 1
fair 5.06
25.8%
Draw
fair 3.88
18.6%
SV Elversberg by 1
fair 5.37
10.5%
SV Elversberg by 2
fair 9.55
6.1%
SV Elversberg by 3+
fair 16.31
Goal distribution
Total goals
6%0
14%1
24%2
22%3
16%4
17%5+
Union Berlin goals
22%0
33%1
25%2
13%3
7%4+
SV Elversberg goals
24%0
34%1
24%2
12%3
6%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Union Berlin win | 39.0% | 39.4% | -0.4 pp |
| Draw | 25.8% | 25.4% | +0.4 pp |
| SV Elversberg win | 35.2% | 35.2% | -0.0 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 56.2% | 57.9% | -1.7 pp |
| Both teams score | 59.7% | 61.1% | -1.3 pp |
| Expected goals Union Berlin | 1.51 | 1.55 | -0.04 |
| Expected goals SV Elversberg | 1.42 | 1.46 | -0.03 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Union Berlin win39.0%2.57
- Draw25.8%3.88
- SV Elversberg win35.2%2.84
- Double chance Union Berlin or draw64.8%1.54
- Double chance Union Berlin or SV Elversberg74.2%1.35
- Double chance SV Elversberg or draw61.0%1.64
- Draw no bet Union Berlin52.5%1.90
- Draw no bet SV Elversberg47.5%2.11
Goals
- Over 0.594.1%1.06
- Over 1.579.7%1.26
- Over 2.556.2%1.78
- Over 3.533.8%2.96
- Over 4.517.4%5.76
- Under 1.520.3%4.92
- Under 2.543.8%2.28
- Under 3.566.2%1.51
Both teams to score
- Yes59.7%1.67
- No40.3%2.48
- Yes and over 2.547.7%2.10
- Union Berlin win and yes20.8%4.80
- Draw and yes19.9%5.03
- SV Elversberg win and yes19.0%5.25
Team goals
- Union Berlin over 0.577.9%1.28
- Union Berlin over 1.544.5%2.25
- Union Berlin over 2.519.3%5.17
- SV Elversberg over 0.575.9%1.32
- SV Elversberg over 1.541.7%2.40
- SV Elversberg over 2.517.2%5.80
- Union Berlin clean sheet24.1%4.15
- SV Elversberg clean sheet22.1%4.52
- Union Berlin win to nil18.1%5.51
- SV Elversberg win to nil16.2%6.18
Handicap
- Union Berlin −1.519.2%5.21
- Union Berlin −2.57.5%13.40
- SV Elversberg +1.580.8%1.24
- SV Elversberg +2.592.5%1.08
- SV Elversberg −1.516.6%6.02
- Union Berlin +1.583.4%1.20
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Bundesliga 2026-2027
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored37
Favourite won51.4%
Avg chance given to result42.7%
1X2 Brier0.575
Over 2.5 called right78.4%
BTTS called right62.2%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 2 | 38.2% | 50.0% |
| 40–50% | 17 | 43.3% | 35.3% |
| 50–60% | 7 | 55.8% | 42.9% |
| 60–70% | 4 | 65.1% | 100.0% |
| 70–80% | 5 | 73.2% | 80.0% |
| 80%+ | 2 | 86.2% | 50.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 37 of 37 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5750 | 0.5913 |
| Avg chance given to result | 42.7% | 42.3% |
| Favourite won | 51.4% | 51.4% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 37 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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- ✓Bayern München 7–0 Union Berlin91·6·3
Pre-match forecasts only. 1 of 37 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.