VfB Stuttgart
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
VfB Stuttgart32.2%fair odds 3.10
Draw24.5%fair odds 4.08
Borussia Dortmund43.3%fair odds 2.31
Expected goals1.45 – 1.71total 3.15
Likeliest score1–111.1%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Borussia Dortmund
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| VfB Stuttgart ↓ · Borussia Dortmund → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 6.7 | 6.2 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 5.6 | 11.1 | 9.0 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 7.6 | 6.5 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.7 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are VfB Stuttgart goals, columns Borussia Dortmund goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–111.1%9.01
- 1–29.0%11.12
- 2–17.6%13.10
- 0–16.7%14.89
- 2–26.5%15.35
- 0–26.2%16.11
- 1–05.6%17.80
- 1–35.1%19.55
- 0–04.8%20.73
- 2–04.5%22.35
Winning margin
5.6%
VfB Stuttgart by 3+
fair 17.95
9.5%
VfB Stuttgart by 2
fair 10.52
17.1%
VfB Stuttgart by 1
fair 5.84
24.5%
Draw
fair 4.08
20.3%
Borussia Dortmund by 1
fair 4.93
13.2%
Borussia Dortmund by 2
fair 7.58
9.8%
Borussia Dortmund by 3+
fair 10.22
Goal distribution
Total goals
5%0
12%1
22%2
22%3
18%4
21%5+
VfB Stuttgart goals
23%0
34%1
25%2
12%3
6%4+
Borussia Dortmund goals
18%0
31%1
26%2
15%3
9%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| VfB Stuttgart win | 32.2% | 31.8% | +0.4 pp |
| Draw | 24.5% | 24.9% | -0.3 pp |
| Borussia Dortmund win | 43.3% | 43.3% | -0.0 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 61.1% | 59.5% | +1.6 pp |
| Both teams score | 63.2% | 61.9% | +1.2 pp |
| Expected goals VfB Stuttgart | 1.45 | 1.41 | +0.04 |
| Expected goals Borussia Dortmund | 1.71 | 1.67 | +0.03 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- VfB Stuttgart win32.2%3.10
- Draw24.5%4.08
- Borussia Dortmund win43.3%2.31
- Double chance VfB Stuttgart or draw56.7%1.76
- Double chance VfB Stuttgart or Borussia Dortmund75.5%1.33
- Double chance Borussia Dortmund or draw67.8%1.48
- Draw no bet VfB Stuttgart42.7%2.34
- Draw no bet Borussia Dortmund57.3%1.74
Goals
- Over 0.595.2%1.05
- Over 1.582.8%1.21
- Over 2.561.1%1.64
- Over 3.538.7%2.58
- Over 4.521.1%4.73
- Under 1.517.2%5.83
- Under 2.538.9%2.57
- Under 3.561.3%1.63
Both teams to score
- Yes63.2%1.58
- No36.8%2.72
- Yes and over 2.552.1%1.92
- VfB Stuttgart win and yes18.9%5.30
- Draw and yes19.7%5.07
- Borussia Dortmund win and yes24.6%4.07
Team goals
- VfB Stuttgart over 0.576.5%1.31
- VfB Stuttgart over 1.542.5%2.35
- VfB Stuttgart over 2.517.8%5.61
- Borussia Dortmund over 0.581.8%1.22
- Borussia Dortmund over 1.550.9%1.97
- Borussia Dortmund over 2.524.4%4.09
- VfB Stuttgart clean sheet18.2%5.51
- Borussia Dortmund clean sheet23.5%4.26
- VfB Stuttgart win to nil13.3%7.50
- Borussia Dortmund win to nil18.7%5.36
Handicap
- VfB Stuttgart −1.515.1%6.63
- VfB Stuttgart −2.55.6%17.95
- Borussia Dortmund +1.584.9%1.18
- Borussia Dortmund +2.594.4%1.06
- Borussia Dortmund −1.523.0%4.35
- VfB Stuttgart +1.577.0%1.30
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Bundesliga 2026-2027
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored32
Favourite won53.1%
Avg chance given to result44.1%
1X2 Brier0.553
Over 2.5 called right84.4%
BTTS called right65.6%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 2 | 38.2% | 50.0% |
| 40–50% | 14 | 43.2% | 35.7% |
| 50–60% | 6 | 56.7% | 33.3% |
| 60–70% | 4 | 65.1% | 100.0% |
| 70–80% | 4 | 73.6% | 100.0% |
| 80%+ | 2 | 86.2% | 50.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 32 of 32 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5526 | 0.5556 |
| Avg chance given to result | 44.1% | 44.3% |
| Favourite won | 53.1% | 56.3% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 32 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 32 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.