VfB Stuttgart
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Borussia Dortmund were slight favourites.
Borussia Dortmund were the stronger side on L90 Strength (82 vs 69). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Borussia Dortmund. VfB Stuttgart had 7.1 days of rest, Borussia Dortmund 7.1 and had to travel 327 km. Conditions were neutral.
Away travel327 kmRest days7.1 · 7.1Matches / 14d2 · 2
VfB Stuttgart33%
Draw23%
Borussia Dortmund44%
VfB Stuttgart34%
Draw26%
Borussia Dortmund40%
VfB Stuttgart34%
Draw23%
Borussia Dortmund43%
VfB Stuttgart26%
Draw22%
Borussia Dortmund52%
VfB Stuttgart32%
Draw24%
Borussia Dortmund44%
Over 2.5 61%
Both score 63%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Stuttgart)
23°COvercast
- Precipitation 0.0 mm
- Wind 5 km/h
- Humidity 39%
Referee · GermanyTobias Stieler
- Cards per match 3.8
- Penalties per match 0.32
- Matches 111
Team strength
VfB Stuttgart
Borussia Dortmund
69
L90 StrengthIn forecast
82
67
Current StrengthIn forecast
80
70
AttackIn forecast
69
58
DefenceIn forecast
80
55
Form indexContext
90
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisBorussia Dortmund
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
VfB StuttgartBorussia Dortmund
2.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.67
2.67
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.67
2.14
xGVia Att/Def
1.77
3.23
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.86
-0.14
Goals minus xGContext
+0.90
100%
Scored inContext
100%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
67%
16.33
ShotsContext
15.00
5.67
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.00
35%
On target shareContext
40%
11.67
Shots in the boxContext
10.67
71%
Box shareContext
74%
12%
ConversionContext
18%
1.00
OffsidesContext
2.00
19.67
Shots allowedContext
12.00
7.33
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.50
5.00
BlocksContext
3.50
4.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.50
64%
Save rateContext
78%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
469
PassesContext
475
375
Accurate passesContext
396
80%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
7.05
Team ratingContext
7.23
10.00
FoulsContext
10.33
10.33
Fouls sufferedContext
13.00
1.33
Yellow cardsContext
1.67
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.33
2.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.10
2.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.97
xGVia Att/Def
1.82
2.29
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.10
+0.43
Goals minus xGContext
+0.28
100%
Scored inContext
80%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
16.20
ShotsContext
13.50
5.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.00
36%
On target shareContext
37%
10.60
Shots in the boxContext
9.80
66%
Box shareContext
75%
15%
ConversionContext
16%
2.22
OffsidesContext
2.00
15.90
Shots allowedContext
10.90
6.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.22
5.25
BlocksContext
3.13
4.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.22
64%
Save rateContext
76%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
467
PassesContext
495
387
Accurate passesContext
424
83%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
7.03
Team ratingContext
7.06
9.60
FoulsContext
11.60
11.30
Fouls sufferedContext
10.90
1.20
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
VfB Stuttgart
LWWL
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km113 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 55 · 6 pts vs 5.5 for an average club · -0.5 vs expected
Borussia Dortmund
WWWW
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel327 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Form 90 · 12 pts vs 5.9 for an average club · +4.0 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| VfB Stuttgart |
Borussia Dortmund |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.1Bundesliga 2026-2027, 12 Sep | 7.1Bundesliga 2026-2027, 12 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 327 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 113 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 4 | 0 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 20.9 | 20.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
VfB Stuttgart
Confirmed XI
1F. Bredlow(G)
7M. Mittelstädt
24J. Chabot
29Finn Jeltsch
10C. Führich
6A. Stiller
21G. Prömel
4J. Vagnoman
26D. Undav
11B. El Khannouss
9E. Demirović
Borussia Dortmund
Confirmed XI
1G. Kobel(G)
4N. Schlotterbeck
3W. Anton
22J. Gadou
24D. Svensson
8F. Nmecha
25J. Veerman
26J. Ryerson
14M. Beier
18E. Nwaneri
9S. Guirassy
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences VfB Stuttgart
Absences are shown before kick-off
Borussia Dortmund
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- VfB Stuttgart-0.8 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Borussia Dortmund+0.9 pp
Home / Away this season
VfB Stuttgart · Home
3.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 4.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Borussia Dortmund · Away
3.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 3.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | VfB Stuttgart | Borussia Dortmund |
|---|---|---|
| 1899 Hoffenheim | L 1–2 A | W 3–2 A |
| Points | 0 of 3 · 0.00 per game | 3 of 3 · 3.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings
4 VfB Stuttgart wins2 draws4 Borussia Dortmund wins
Goals per game1.70 – 2.00
Over 2.570%
Both scored60%
Clean sheets10% · 30%
- 4 Apr 2026VfB Stuttgart0–2Borussia Dortmund
- 22 Nov 2025Borussia Dortmund3–3VfB Stuttgart
- 8 Feb 2025Borussia Dortmund1–2VfB Stuttgart
- 22 Sep 2024VfB Stuttgart5–1Borussia Dortmund
- 6 Apr 2024Borussia Dortmund0–1VfB Stuttgart
- 11 Nov 2023VfB Stuttgart2–1Borussia Dortmund
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| VfB Stuttgart | Borussia Dortmund | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 2.67 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.67 | 0.67 | |
| Match goals | 4.67 | 3.33 | 3.15 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 67% | 61% |
| Over 3.5 | 67% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 33% | 63% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 67% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 3 | 3 |
| VfB Stuttgart | Borussia Dortmund | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.40 | 2.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 4.40 | 3.10 | 3.15 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 90% | 60% | 61% |
| Over 3.5 | 80% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 90% | 40% | 63% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| VfB Stuttgart | Borussia Dortmund | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.67 | 4.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 7.33 | 4.67 | |
| Match total | 14.00 | 9.00 | 10.90 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 3/3 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Over 9.5 | 100% 3/3 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Over 10.5 | 100% 3/3 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.33 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.67 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 3.00 | 4.00 | 3.58 |
| Over 3.5 | 67% 2/3 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/3 | 33% 1/3 | |
| VfB Stuttgart | Borussia Dortmund | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.40 | 4.56 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.80 | 4.11 | |
| Match total | 12.20 | 8.67 | 10.90 |
| Over 8.5 | 90% 9/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 80% 8/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 70% 7/10 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.30 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.60 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 2.90 | 3.30 | 3.58 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Tobias Stieler Germany · 111 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.64league 3.50
Red cards0.19league 0.09
Cards 5+32%league 19%
Fouls21.7league 22.6
Penalties0.32league 0.19
Home wins52%league 53%
VfB Stuttgart11 with this referee
Record4-2-5
Cards · opp.1.9 · 1.6
Pens for · against1 · 1
Reds1
- L6 Dec 25H · Bayern München0–53
- W5 Oct 25H · 1. FC Heidenheim1–01
- D19 Apr 25A · Union Berlin4–42
- L25 Jan 25A · FSV Mainz 050–23
- L19 Oct 24A · Bayern München0–42
Borussia Dortmund14 with this referee
Record9-1-4
Cards · opp.1.5 · 2.0
Pens for · against4 · 3
- W31 Oct 25A · FC Augsburg1–01
- W1 Mar 25A · FC St. Pauli2–02
- L10 Jan 25H · Bayer Leverkusen2–31
- D7 Dec 24A · Borussia Mönchengladbach1–12
- W2 Nov 24H · RB Leipzig2–13
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
VfB Stuttgart3 games · scored 6 · conceded 8
1
0-15
1
16-30
1
31-45
3
2
46-60
1
1
61-75
1
3
76-90
Borussia Dortmund3 games · scored 8 · conceded 2
2
0-15
16-30
1
1
31-45
1
46-60
2
61-75
3
76-90
VfB Stuttgart10 games · scored 24 · conceded 20
2
3
0-15
5
4
16-30
5
3
31-45
5
4
46-60
3
2
61-75
4
4
76-90
Borussia Dortmund10 games · scored 21 · conceded 10
4
1
0-15
16-30
4
3
31-45
2
1
46-60
3
1
61-75
8
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
