VfB Stuttgart
Attack—
Defense risk—
VfB Stuttgart
4th · 53 pts · 28 played
WDWWL
4–0Full time
Hamburger SV
12th · 31 pts · 28 played
LWDLD
Our take
VfB Stuttgart were clear favourites.
VfB Stuttgart were the stronger side on L90 Strength (68 vs 38). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for VfB Stuttgart. VfB Stuttgart had 8 days of rest, Hamburger SV 8.1 and had to travel 533 km.
Away travel533 kmRest days8 · 8.1Matches / 14d1 · 1
VfB Stuttgart77%
Draw14%
Hamburger SV9%
VfB Stuttgart62%
Draw22%
Hamburger SV16%
VfB Stuttgart75%
Draw15%
Hamburger SV10%
VfB Stuttgart70%
Draw17%
Hamburger SV13%
VfB Stuttgart74%
Draw16%
Hamburger SV10%
Over 2.5 74%
Both score 58%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Stuttgart)
No weather data yet
Referee—Not recorded
Team strength
VfB StuttgartHamburger SV
68
L90 StrengthIn forecast
38
67
Current StrengthIn forecast
40
70
AttackIn forecast
37
58
DefenceIn forecast
43
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisHamburger SV
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
VfB StuttgartHamburger SV
2.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.14
1.36
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.46
1.69
xGVia Att/Def
1.06
1.35
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.68
+0.31
Goals minus xGContext
+0.08
89%
Scored inContext
68%
36%
Clean sheetsContext
21%
14.61
ShotsContext
11.71
5.64
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.50
39%
On target shareContext
38%
9.64
Shots in the boxContext
7.81
66%
Box shareContext
64%
14%
ConversionContext
10%
2.35
OffsidesContext
2.27
11.71
Shots allowedContext
13.82
4.21
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.70
3.07
BlocksContext
3.56
3.15
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.12
72%
Save rateContext
64%
59%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
520
PassesContext
391
439
Accurate passesContext
319
84%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.95
Team ratingContext
6.85
9.71
FoulsContext
11.57
11.93
Fouls sufferedContext
12.50
1.89
Yellow cardsContext
2.14
0.04
Red cardsContext
0.07
2.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.71
xGVia Att/Def
1.21
1.19
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.23
+0.29
Goals minus xGContext
+0.29
70%
Scored inContext
90%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
15.50
ShotsContext
10.30
6.10
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.90
39%
On target shareContext
38%
10.00
Shots in the boxContext
7.11
64%
Box shareContext
64%
13%
ConversionContext
15%
2.14
OffsidesContext
2.00
9.60
Shots allowedContext
14.80
4.10
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.30
1.89
BlocksContext
3.50
2.60
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.80
63%
Save rateContext
65%
62%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
545
PassesContext
356
456
Accurate passesContext
281
84%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.94
Team ratingContext
6.87
9.50
FoulsContext
10.20
10.90
Fouls sufferedContext
11.50
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
2.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
VfB Stuttgart
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Hamburger SV
Rest8.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel533 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| VfB Stuttgart |
Hamburger SV |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8Bundesliga 2025-2026, 4 Apr | 8.1Bundesliga 2025-2026, 4 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 533 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 4 | 0 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 5.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
VfB Stuttgart
Confirmed XI
33A. Nübel(G)
7M. Mittelstädt
24J. Chabot
3R. Hendriks
22L. Assignon
6A. Stiller
30Chema Andrés
10C. Führich
26D. Undav
18J. Leweling
9E. Demirović
Hamburger SV
Confirmed XI
1D. Heuer Fernandes(G)
8Daniel Elfadli
25J. Torunarigha
17W. Omari
2W. Mikelbrencis
21N. Remberg
20Fábio Vieira
23A. Grønbæk
11R. Königsdörffer
45Fabio Amadu Uri Baldé
14Rayan Philippe
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences VfB Stuttgart
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Hamburger SV
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.13 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- VfB Stuttgart+2.1 pp
- Draw-1.0 pp
- Hamburger SV-1.1 pp
Home / Away this season
VfB Stuttgart · Home
2.29points per game · 14 home games
- W-D-L
- 10-2-2
- Scored
- 1.57
- Conceded
- 1.00
Hamburger SV · Away
0.77points per game · 13 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-4-7
- Scored
- 0.85
- Conceded
- 1.77
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | VfB Stuttgart | Hamburger SV |
|---|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund | L 0–2 HD 3–3 A | L 2–3 AD 1–1 H |
| FC Augsburg | W 5–2 AW 3–2 H | D 1–1 HL 0–1 A |
| RB Leipzig | W 1–0 HL 1–3 A | L 1–2 HL 1–2 A |
| FSV Mainz 05 | D 2–2 AW 2–1 H | D 1–1 AW 4–0 H |
| VfL Wolfsburg | W 4–0 HW 3–0 A | W 2–1 AL 0–1 H |
| 1. FC Heidenheim | D 3–3 AW 1–0 H | W 2–0 AW 2–1 H |
| 1.FC Köln | W 3–1 HW 2–1 A | D 1–1 HL 1–4 A |
| FC St. Pauli | L 1–2 AW 2–0 H | D 0–0 AL 0–2 H |
| SC Freiburg | W 1–0 HL 1–3 A | L 1–2 A |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | W 3–0 AW 1–0 H | D 0–0 HD 0–0 A |
| Union Berlin | D 1–1 HL 1–2 A | W 3–2 HD 0–0 A |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | W 3–2 H | D 1–1 H |
| Bayer Leverkusen | W 4–1 A | L 0–1 H |
| 1899 Hoffenheim | D 0–0 H | L 1–4 A |
| Werder Bremen | W 4–0 A | W 3–2 H |
| Bayern München | L 0–5 H | D 2–2 HL 0–5 A |
| Points | 53 of 81 · 1.96 per game | 28 of 81 · 1.04 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
0 VfB Stuttgart wins0 draws1 Hamburger SV wins
Goals per game1.00 – 2.00
Over 2.5100%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 30 Nov 2025Hamburger SV2–1VfB Stuttgart
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| VfB Stuttgart | Hamburger SV | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 1.14 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.36 | 1.46 | |
| Match goals | 3.36 | 2.61 | 3.86 |
| Over 1.5 | 82% | 75% | |
| Over 2.5 | 71% | 50% | 74% |
| Over 3.5 | 46% | 29% | |
| Both teams scored | 57% | 61% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 36% | 21% | |
| Failed to score | 11% | 32% | |
| Games | 28 | 28 |
| VfB Stuttgart | Hamburger SV | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 3.50 | 2.90 | 3.86 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 50% | 74% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 80% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| VfB Stuttgart | Hamburger SV | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.15 | 3.92 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.07 | 5.31 | |
| Match total | 9.22 | 9.23 | 9.57 |
| Over 8.5 | 52% 14/27 | 54% 14/26 | |
| Over 9.5 | 48% 13/27 | 38% 10/26 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 8/27 | 31% 8/26 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.93 | 2.39 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.71 | 2.21 | |
| Match total | 3.64 | 4.60 | 3.91 |
| Over 3.5 | 46% 13/28 | 71% 20/28 | |
| Over 4.5 | 36% 10/28 | 57% 16/28 | |
| VfB Stuttgart | Hamburger SV | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.80 | 4.44 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.80 | 6.67 | |
| Match total | 9.60 | 11.11 | 9.57 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 89% 8/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 2.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.60 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 3.40 | 4.80 | 3.91 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
VfB Stuttgart28 games · scored 56 · conceded 38
4
4
0-15
9
4
16-30
12
8
31-45
7
3
46-60
5
3
61-75
19
16
76-90
Hamburger SV28 games · scored 32 · conceded 41
2
4
0-15
4
8
16-30
8
7
31-45
7
7
46-60
5
6
61-75
6
9
76-90
VfB Stuttgart10 games · scored 20 · conceded 15
3
1
0-15
4
5
16-30
4
2
31-45
3
1
46-60
2
61-75
6
4
76-90
Hamburger SV10 games · scored 15 · conceded 14
0-15
2
3
16-30
7
4
31-45
3
2
46-60
1
2
61-75
2
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
