VfB Stuttgart
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
VfB Stuttgart were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards RB Leipzig. VfB Stuttgart had 3 days of rest, RB Leipzig 8.2 and had to travel 364 km.
Away travel364 kmRest days3 · 8.2Matches / 14d2 · 2
VfB Stuttgart44%
Draw23%
RB Leipzig33%
VfB Stuttgart44%
Draw27%
RB Leipzig29%
VfB Stuttgart44%
Draw23%
RB Leipzig33%
VfB Stuttgart36%
Draw23%
RB Leipzig41%
VfB Stuttgart43%
Draw24%
RB Leipzig33%
Over 2.5 70%
Both score 70%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Stuttgart)
No weather data yet
RefereeDeniz Aytekin
- Cards per match 3.9
- Penalties per match 0.32
- Matches 72
Team strength
VfB Stuttgart
RB Leipzig
68
L90 StrengthIn forecast
68
67
Current StrengthIn forecast
67
70
AttackIn forecast
76
58
DefenceIn forecast
53
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisRB Leipzig
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
VfB StuttgartRB Leipzig
2.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.92
1.36
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.36
1.68
xGVia Att/Def
1.88
1.41
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.37
+0.32
Goals minus xGContext
+0.04
92%
Scored inContext
92%
36%
Clean sheetsContext
36%
14.88
ShotsContext
15.52
5.76
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.64
39%
On target shareContext
36%
9.80
Shots in the boxContext
11.20
66%
Box shareContext
72%
13%
ConversionContext
12%
2.38
OffsidesContext
2.13
12.08
Shots allowedContext
11.52
4.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.80
3.24
BlocksContext
3.46
3.13
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.68
71%
Save rateContext
66%
59%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
517
PassesContext
503
437
Accurate passesContext
428
85%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.93
Team ratingContext
7.05
9.80
FoulsContext
9.08
11.84
Fouls sufferedContext
10.24
1.88
Yellow cardsContext
1.44
0.04
Red cardsContext
0.00
2.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.80
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.82
xGVia Att/Def
1.99
1.36
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.57
+0.38
Goals minus xGContext
-0.19
90%
Scored inContext
100%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
16.40
ShotsContext
15.20
6.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.70
39%
On target shareContext
38%
10.60
Shots in the boxContext
12.60
65%
Box shareContext
83%
13%
ConversionContext
12%
2.11
OffsidesContext
2.20
10.90
Shots allowedContext
9.60
4.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.90
2.56
BlocksContext
2.44
2.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.40
63%
Save rateContext
62%
62%
PossessionIn forecast
60%
548
PassesContext
552
466
Accurate passesContext
476
85%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.94
Team ratingContext
7.11
9.20
FoulsContext
8.90
9.70
Fouls sufferedContext
9.60
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
1.20
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
VfB Stuttgart
Rest3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km297 km in 14d
Schedule load8%Low
RB Leipzig
Rest8.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel364 km588 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| VfB Stuttgart |
RB Leipzig |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 8 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 3UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - Knockout phase, 12 Mar | 8.2Bundesliga 2025-2026, 7 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 364 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 297 km | 588 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 6 | 0 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 4.1 | 5 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
VfB Stuttgart
Confirmed XI
33A. Nübel(G)
3R. Hendriks
14L. Jaquez
29Finn Jeltsch
10C. Führich
6A. Stiller
16A. Karazor
18J. Leweling
11B. El Khannouss
26D. Undav
9E. Demirović
RB Leipzig
Confirmed XI
26M. Vandevoordt(G)
22D. Raum
23C. Lukeba
4V. Orbán
17R. Baku
14C. Baumgartner
13N. Seiwald
6E. Banzuzi
7A. Nusa
40Rômulo
49Y. Diomande
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences VfB Stuttgart
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
RB Leipzig
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- VfB Stuttgart+0.4 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- RB Leipzig-0.3 pp
Home / Away this season
VfB Stuttgart · Home
2.42points per game · 12 home games
- W-D-L
- 9-2-1
- Scored
- 1.75
- Conceded
- 1.00
RB Leipzig · Away
1.75points per game · 12 away games
- W-D-L
- 6-3-3
- Scored
- 1.58
- Conceded
- 1.33
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | VfB Stuttgart | RB Leipzig |
|---|---|---|
| FSV Mainz 05 | D 2–2 AW 2–1 H | L 1–2 HW 1–0 A |
| VfL Wolfsburg | W 4–0 HW 3–0 A | D 2–2 HW 1–0 A |
| 1. FC Heidenheim | D 3–3 AW 1–0 H | W 3–0 AW 2–0 H |
| 1.FC Köln | W 3–1 HW 2–1 A | W 2–1 AW 3–1 H |
| FC St. Pauli | L 1–2 AW 2–0 H | D 1–1 A |
| SC Freiburg | W 1–0 HL 1–3 A | W 2–0 H |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | W 3–0 AW 1–0 H | D 0–0 A |
| Union Berlin | D 1–1 HL 1–2 A | L 1–3 A |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | W 3–2 H | W 6–0 H |
| Bayer Leverkusen | W 4–1 A | L 1–3 H |
| 1899 Hoffenheim | D 0–0 H | L 1–3 A |
| Werder Bremen | W 4–0 A | W 2–0 H |
| Bayern München | L 0–5 H | L 1–5 HL 0–6 A |
| Hamburger SV | L 1–2 A | W 2–1 AW 2–1 H |
| Borussia Dortmund | D 3–3 A | D 2–2 HD 1–1 A |
| FC Augsburg | W 3–2 H | W 2–1 HW 6–0 A |
| Points | 47 of 72 · 1.96 per game | 44 of 72 · 1.83 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings
3 VfB Stuttgart wins1 draws5 RB Leipzig wins
Goals per game1.56 – 2.44
Over 2.578%
Both scored78%
Clean sheets0% · 22%
- 1 Nov 2025RB Leipzig3–1VfB Stuttgart
- 17 May 2025RB Leipzig2–3VfB Stuttgart
- 15 Jan 2025VfB Stuttgart2–1RB Leipzig
- 27 Jan 2024VfB Stuttgart5–2RB Leipzig
- 25 Aug 2023RB Leipzig5–1VfB Stuttgart
- 27 Jan 2023RB Leipzig2–1VfB Stuttgart
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| VfB Stuttgart | RB Leipzig | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 1.92 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.36 | 1.36 | |
| Match goals | 3.36 | 3.28 | 3.62 |
| Over 1.5 | 84% | 88% | |
| Over 2.5 | 76% | 68% | 70% |
| Over 3.5 | 48% | 44% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 36% | 36% | |
| Failed to score | 8% | 8% | |
| Games | 25 | 25 |
| VfB Stuttgart | RB Leipzig | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.20 | 1.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 3.60 | 3.30 | 3.62 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 80% | 70% |
| Over 3.5 | 60% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 80% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| VfB Stuttgart | RB Leipzig | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.17 | 5.70 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.17 | 4.61 | |
| Match total | 9.34 | 10.31 | 9.59 |
| Over 8.5 | 54% 13/24 | 65% 15/23 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 12/24 | 57% 13/23 | |
| Over 10.5 | 29% 7/24 | 35% 8/23 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.92 | 1.44 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.64 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 3.56 | 3.44 | 3.86 |
| Over 3.5 | 44% 11/25 | 44% 11/25 | |
| Over 4.5 | 36% 9/25 | 24% 6/25 | |
| VfB Stuttgart | RB Leipzig | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.30 | 5.56 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.90 | 4.11 | |
| Match total | 9.20 | 9.67 | 9.59 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.60 | 1.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.00 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 2.60 | 3.10 | 3.86 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Deniz Aytekin 72 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.63league 3.71
Red cards0.24league 0.18
Cards 5+38%league 38%
Fouls22.6league 20.5
Penalties0.32league 0.36
Home wins38%league 45%
VfB Stuttgart8 with this referee
Record2-3-3
Cards · opp.1.8 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- D18 Jan 26H · Union Berlin1–11
- L29 Mar 25A · Eintracht Frankfurt0–14
- W13 Apr 24H · Eintracht Frankfurt3–01
- W11 Feb 24H · FSV Mainz 053–11
- D10 Dec 23H · Bayer Leverkusen1–11
RB Leipzig7 with this referee
Record5-0-2
Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.9
Pens for · against3 · 1
- W27 Apr 24H · Borussia Dortmund4–11
- W20 May 23A · Bayern München3–11
- W8 Apr 23A · Hertha BSC1–03
- W18 Feb 23A · VfL Wolfsburg3–01
- L20 Aug 22A · Union Berlin1–21
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
VfB Stuttgart25 games · scored 50 · conceded 34
3
4
0-15
8
4
16-30
11
8
31-45
5
2
46-60
5
2
61-75
18
14
76-90
RB Leipzig25 games · scored 48 · conceded 34
6
0-15
5
5
16-30
11
7
31-45
11
7
46-60
9
5
61-75
6
10
76-90
VfB Stuttgart10 games · scored 22 · conceded 14
5
1
0-15
3
4
16-30
3
4
31-45
1
2
46-60
61-75
10
3
76-90
RB Leipzig10 games · scored 18 · conceded 15
0-15
3
1
16-30
3
2
31-45
4
5
46-60
5
1
61-75
3
6
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
