VfB Stuttgart
Attack—
Defense risk—
VfB Stuttgart
5th · 32 pts · 17 played
LWDWW
1–1Full time
Union Berlin
9th · 23 pts · 17 played
LWWDD
Our take
VfB Stuttgart were clear favourites.
VfB Stuttgart were the stronger side on L90 Strength (71 vs 45). VfB Stuttgart usually keep the ball (57% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. VfB Stuttgart had 4.9 days of rest, Union Berlin 2.8 and had to travel 512 km.
Away travel512 kmRest days4.9 · 2.8Matches / 14d2 · 2
VfB Stuttgart62%
Draw21%
Union Berlin16%
VfB Stuttgart60%
Draw23%
Union Berlin17%
VfB Stuttgart62%
Draw21%
Union Berlin16%
VfB Stuttgart55%
Draw24%
Union Berlin22%
VfB Stuttgart60%
Draw23%
Union Berlin17%
Over 2.5 60%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Stuttgart)
No weather data yet
RefereeDeniz Aytekin
- Cards per match 3.8
- Penalties per match 0.33
- Matches 67
Team strength
VfB StuttgartUnion Berlin
71
L90 StrengthIn forecast
45
67
Current StrengthIn forecast
39
70
AttackIn forecast
42
58
DefenceIn forecast
41
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisUnion Berlin
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
VfB StuttgartUnion Berlin
1.88
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.35
1.47
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.53
1.59
xGVia Att/Def
1.26
1.34
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.20
+0.29
Goals minus xGContext
+0.09
88%
Scored inContext
71%
35%
Clean sheetsContext
24%
15.12
ShotsContext
12.35
5.71
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.53
38%
On target shareContext
29%
9.76
Shots in the boxContext
9.12
64%
Box shareContext
74%
13%
ConversionContext
11%
2.63
OffsidesContext
1.86
11.65
Shots allowedContext
11.94
4.24
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.29
3.12
BlocksContext
3.79
3.27
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.20
72%
Save rateContext
70%
57%
PossessionIn forecast
39%
500
PassesContext
319
422
Accurate passesContext
233
84%
Pass accuracyContext
73%
6.90
Team ratingContext
6.77
10.35
FoulsContext
12.76
12.29
Fouls sufferedContext
10.29
1.88
Yellow cardsContext
2.41
0.06
Red cardsContext
0.12
2.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
1.76
xGVia Att/Def
1.25
1.33
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.79
+0.84
Goals minus xGContext
-0.05
80%
Scored inContext
80%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
15.30
ShotsContext
12.50
6.10
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.30
40%
On target shareContext
26%
10.50
Shots in the boxContext
9.40
68%
Box shareContext
75%
17%
ConversionContext
10%
2.56
OffsidesContext
1.75
11.20
Shots allowedContext
10.00
4.10
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.20
3.10
BlocksContext
3.50
2.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.63
62%
Save rateContext
75%
56%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
492
PassesContext
354
413
Accurate passesContext
263
84%
Pass accuracyContext
74%
6.94
Team ratingContext
6.78
9.90
FoulsContext
12.20
12.30
Fouls sufferedContext
8.90
2.20
Yellow cardsContext
2.30
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
VfB Stuttgart
Rest4.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km590 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Union Berlin
Rest2.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel512 km990 km in 14d
Schedule load14%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| VfB Stuttgart |
Union Berlin |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 14 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 4.9Bundesliga 2025-2026, 13 Jan | 2.8Bundesliga 2025-2026, 15 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 512 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 590 km | 990 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 2 | 1 / 2 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 4.2 | 6.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
VfB Stuttgart
Confirmed XI
33A. Nübel(G)
7M. Mittelstädt
24J. Chabot
3R. Hendriks
4J. Vagnoman
6A. Stiller
16A. Karazor
10C. Führich
28N. Nartey
18J. Leweling
26D. Undav
Union Berlin
Confirmed XI
1F. Rønnow(G)
4Diogo Leite
14L. Querfeld
5D. Doekhi
18J. Juranović
6A. Kemlein
8R. Khedira
13A. Schäfer
19J. Haberer
9Livan Burcu
23A. Ilić
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences VfB Stuttgart
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Union Berlin
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- VfB Stuttgart+0.2 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Union Berlin+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
VfB Stuttgart · Home
2.38points per game · 8 home games
- W-D-L
- 6-1-1
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 1.25
Union Berlin · Away
1.25points per game · 8 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-1-4
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.63
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | VfB Stuttgart | Union Berlin |
|---|---|---|
| Eintracht Frankfurt | W 3–2 H | W 4–3 A |
| Bayer Leverkusen | W 4–1 A | L 0–2 A |
| 1899 Hoffenheim | D 0–0 H | L 2–4 H |
| Werder Bremen | W 4–0 A | L 0–1 A |
| Bayern München | L 0–5 H | D 2–2 H |
| Hamburger SV | L 1–2 A | D 0–0 H |
| Borussia Dortmund | D 3–3 A | L 0–3 A |
| FC Augsburg | W 3–2 H | D 1–1 A |
| RB Leipzig | L 1–3 A | W 3–1 H |
| FSV Mainz 05 | W 2–1 H | D 2–2 H |
| VfL Wolfsburg | W 3–0 A | L 1–3 A |
| 1. FC Heidenheim | W 1–0 H | L 1–2 H |
| 1.FC Köln | W 2–1 A | W 1–0 A |
| FC St. Pauli | W 2–0 H | W 1–0 A |
| SC Freiburg | L 1–3 A | D 0–0 H |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | W 1–0 H | W 3–1 H |
| Points | 32 of 48 · 2.00 per game | 20 of 48 · 1.25 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings
3 VfB Stuttgart wins3 draws3 Union Berlin wins
Goals per game1.67 – 1.56
Over 2.556%
Both scored56%
Clean sheets22% · 22%
- 23 Aug 2025Union Berlin2–1VfB Stuttgart
- 19 Apr 2025Union Berlin4–4VfB Stuttgart
- 6 Dec 2024VfB Stuttgart3–2Union Berlin
- 8 Mar 2024VfB Stuttgart2–0Union Berlin
- 21 Oct 2023Union Berlin0–3VfB Stuttgart
- 1 Apr 2023Union Berlin3–0VfB Stuttgart
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| VfB Stuttgart | Union Berlin | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.88 | 1.35 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.47 | 1.53 | |
| Match goals | 3.35 | 2.88 | 3.10 |
| Over 1.5 | 82% | 71% | |
| Over 2.5 | 76% | 59% | 60% |
| Over 3.5 | 47% | 41% | |
| Both teams scored | 59% | 59% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 35% | 24% | |
| Failed to score | 12% | 29% | |
| Games | 17 | 17 |
| VfB Stuttgart | Union Berlin | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.60 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 4.20 | 2.40 | 3.10 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 90% | 50% | 60% |
| Over 3.5 | 80% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| VfB Stuttgart | Union Berlin | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.44 | 4.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.25 | 4.50 | |
| Match total | 9.69 | 9.00 | 9.58 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 9/16 | 69% 11/16 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 8/16 | 50% 8/16 | |
| Over 10.5 | 31% 5/16 | 19% 3/16 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.94 | 2.59 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.06 | 2.12 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 4.71 | 3.95 |
| Over 3.5 | 53% 9/17 | 71% 12/17 | |
| Over 4.5 | 41% 7/17 | 53% 9/17 | |
| VfB Stuttgart | Union Berlin | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.00 | 4.11 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.00 | 4.22 | |
| Match total | 8.00 | 8.33 | 9.58 |
| Over 8.5 | 22% 2/9 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 22% 2/9 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 11% 1/9 | 0% 0/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.30 | 2.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.50 | 2.10 | |
| Match total | 4.80 | 4.50 | 3.95 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Deniz Aytekin 67 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.63league 3.80
Red cards0.21league 0.19
Cards 5+37%league 39%
Fouls22.8league 21.1
Penalties0.33league 0.32
Home wins37%league 46%
VfB Stuttgart7 with this referee
Record2-2-3
Cards · opp.1.9 · 2.1
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- L29 Mar 25A · Eintracht Frankfurt0–14
- W13 Apr 24H · Eintracht Frankfurt3–01
- W11 Feb 24H · FSV Mainz 053–11
- D10 Dec 23H · Bayer Leverkusen1–11
- L6 May 23A · Hertha BSC1–21
Union Berlin10 with this referee
Record2-4-4
Cards · opp.1.7 · 1.6
Pens for · against3 · 5
Reds1
- D28 Sep 25H · Hamburger SV0–02
- D27 Apr 25A · VfL Bochum1–12
- L11 May 24A · 1.FC Köln2–32
- D24 Feb 24H · 1. FC Heidenheim2–22
- W20 Dec 23H · 1.FC Köln2–00
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
VfB Stuttgart17 games · scored 32 · conceded 25
1
4
0-15
5
3
16-30
9
5
31-45
4
1
46-60
3
2
61-75
10
10
76-90
Union Berlin17 games · scored 23 · conceded 26
2
1
0-15
3
2
16-30
4
8
31-45
4
5
46-60
3
2
61-75
7
8
76-90
VfB Stuttgart10 games · scored 26 · conceded 16
1
3
0-15
5
2
16-30
8
2
31-45
4
1
46-60
1
2
61-75
7
6
76-90
Union Berlin10 games · scored 12 · conceded 12
1
0-15
1
2
16-30
2
2
31-45
1
2
46-60
2
2
61-75
6
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
