VfL Wolfsburg
Attack—
Defense risk—
VfL Wolfsburg
15th · 20 pts · 22 played
DLLLD
2–3Full time
FC Augsburg
11th · 25 pts · 22 played
DWWLW
Our take
It was too close to call.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards FC Augsburg. VfL Wolfsburg had 5.9 days of rest, FC Augsburg 6 and had to travel 451 km.
Away travel451 kmRest days5.9 · 6Matches / 14d2 · 2
VfL Wolfsburg39%
Draw26%
FC Augsburg35%
VfL Wolfsburg44%
Draw27%
FC Augsburg29%
VfL Wolfsburg40%
Draw26%
FC Augsburg34%
VfL Wolfsburg32%
Draw26%
FC Augsburg42%
VfL Wolfsburg39%
Draw27%
FC Augsburg34%
Over 2.5 56%
Both score 59%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Wolfsburg)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanyDaniel Schlager
- Cards per match 4.5
- Penalties per match 0.28
- Matches 88
Team strength
VfL WolfsburgFC Augsburg
41
L90 StrengthIn forecast
40
36
Current StrengthIn forecast
50
50
AttackIn forecast
72
42
DefenceIn forecast
23
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisFC Augsburg
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
VfL WolfsburgFC Augsburg
1.41
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.14
2.09
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.77
1.23
xGVia Att/Def
1.02
1.76
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.63
+0.18
Goals minus xGContext
+0.12
82%
Scored inContext
68%
5%
Clean sheetsContext
18%
11.36
ShotsContext
12.18
3.91
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.09
34%
On target shareContext
34%
7.05
Shots in the boxContext
7.24
60%
Box shareContext
60%
12%
ConversionContext
9%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.30
14.73
Shots allowedContext
13.18
5.27
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.43
4.29
BlocksContext
4.50
3.38
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.74
63%
Save rateContext
59%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
406
PassesContext
400
325
Accurate passesContext
319
80%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.79
Team ratingContext
6.77
10.73
FoulsContext
11.05
9.23
Fouls sufferedContext
11.91
1.95
Yellow cardsContext
2.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
2.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
1.19
xGVia Att/Def
1.07
2.03
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.55
+0.51
Goals minus xGContext
-0.07
90%
Scored inContext
60%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
10.40
ShotsContext
12.60
3.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.40
36%
On target shareContext
35%
6.40
Shots in the boxContext
7.44
61%
Box shareContext
60%
16%
ConversionContext
8%
2.33
OffsidesContext
1.89
15.50
Shots allowedContext
13.30
5.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.11
4.40
BlocksContext
4.90
3.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.56
60%
Save rateContext
62%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
420
PassesContext
410
335
Accurate passesContext
331
80%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.80
Team ratingContext
6.87
11.10
FoulsContext
9.50
8.00
Fouls sufferedContext
12.60
2.10
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
VfL Wolfsburg
Rest5.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km325 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
FC Augsburg
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel451 km523 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| VfL Wolfsburg |
FC Augsburg |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5.9Bundesliga 2025-2026, 15 Feb | 6Bundesliga 2025-2026, 15 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 451 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 325 km | 523 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8 | 6.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
VfL Wolfsburg
Confirmed XI
1K. Grabara(G)
6J. Belocian
15M. Jenz
3D. Vavro
26S. Kumbedi
31Y. Gerhardt
24C. Eriksen
32M. Svanberg
10L. Majer
11A. Daghim
9M. Amoura
FC Augsburg
Confirmed XI
1F. Dahmen(G)
16C. Zesiger
31K. Schlotterbeck
40N. Banks
13D. Giannoulis
4H. Massengo
17K. Jakić
19Robin Fellhauer
20A. Claude-Maurice
36M. Kömür
21Rodrigo Ribeiro
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences VfL Wolfsburg
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
FC Augsburg
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- VfL Wolfsburg-0.7 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- FC Augsburg+0.8 pp
Home / Away this season
VfL Wolfsburg · Home
0.82points per game · 11 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-3-6
- Scored
- 1.55
- Conceded
- 2.09
FC Augsburg · Away
0.70points per game · 10 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-7
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | VfL Wolfsburg | FC Augsburg |
|---|---|---|
| RB Leipzig | D 2–2 AL 0–1 H | L 0–6 H |
| Borussia Dortmund | L 1–2 HL 0–1 A | L 0–1 H |
| 1.FC Köln | L 0–1 AD 3–3 H | D 1–1 A |
| FSV Mainz 05 | L 1–3 AD 1–1 H | L 0–2 AL 1–4 H |
| 1. FC Heidenheim | D 1–1 HW 3–1 A | W 1–0 HL 1–2 A |
| FC St. Pauli | W 2–1 H | W 2–1 HL 1–2 A |
| Bayern München | L 1–8 A | W 2–1 AL 2–3 H |
| SC Freiburg | L 3–4 H | D 2–2 HW 3–1 A |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | W 3–1 A | L 0–4 A |
| Union Berlin | W 3–1 H | D 1–1 H |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | D 1–1 A | L 0–1 A |
| Bayer Leverkusen | L 1–3 H | W 2–0 H |
| Werder Bremen | L 1–2 A | D 0–0 H |
| 1899 Hoffenheim | L 2–3 H | L 0–3 A |
| Hamburger SV | W 1–0 A | W 1–0 H |
| VfB Stuttgart | L 0–3 H | L 2–3 A |
| Points | 20 of 63 · 0.95 per game | 22 of 63 · 1.05 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings
1 VfL Wolfsburg wins3 draws5 FC Augsburg wins
Goals per game1.00 – 1.89
Over 2.556%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets11% · 22%
- 4 Oct 2025FC Augsburg3–1VfL Wolfsburg
- 15 Mar 2025FC Augsburg1–0VfL Wolfsburg
- 2 Nov 2024VfL Wolfsburg1–1FC Augsburg
- 16 Mar 2024VfL Wolfsburg1–3FC Augsburg
- 28 Oct 2023FC Augsburg3–2VfL Wolfsburg
- 1 Apr 2023VfL Wolfsburg2–2FC Augsburg
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| VfL Wolfsburg | FC Augsburg | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.41 | 1.14 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.09 | 1.77 | |
| Match goals | 3.50 | 2.91 | 2.91 |
| Over 1.5 | 82% | 77% | |
| Over 2.5 | 68% | 59% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 36% | |
| Both teams scored | 77% | 55% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 5% | 18% | |
| Failed to score | 18% | 32% | |
| Games | 22 | 22 |
| VfL Wolfsburg | FC Augsburg | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.70 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.40 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 4.10 | 2.20 | 2.91 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 40% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 60% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 90% | 40% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| VfL Wolfsburg | FC Augsburg | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.71 | 4.23 | |
| Corners conceded | 7.14 | 4.77 | |
| Match total | 10.85 | 9.00 | 9.65 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 14/21 | 55% 12/22 | |
| Over 9.5 | 57% 12/21 | 41% 9/22 | |
| Over 10.5 | 48% 10/21 | 32% 7/22 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 2.55 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.64 | 1.82 | |
| Match total | 3.64 | 4.37 | 3.90 |
| Over 3.5 | 45% 10/22 | 68% 15/22 | |
| Over 4.5 | 41% 9/22 | 55% 12/22 | |
| VfL Wolfsburg | FC Augsburg | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.67 | 4.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.33 | 5.40 | |
| Match total | 10.00 | 9.90 | 9.65 |
| Over 8.5 | 44% 4/9 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 4/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.10 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.30 | 1.70 | |
| Match total | 3.40 | 3.70 | 3.90 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Daniel Schlager Germany · 88 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.22league 3.74
Red cards0.24league 0.18
Cards 5+49%league 38%
Fouls22.5league 20.7
Penalties0.28league 0.36
Home wins56%league 46%
VfL Wolfsburg6 with this referee
Record1-2-3
Cards · opp.2.5 · 2.2
Pens for · against1 · 0
Reds1
- L20 Oct 24H · Werder Bremen2–42
- D25 Feb 24A · Eintracht Frankfurt2–21
- L28 Oct 23A · FC Augsburg2–34
- D5 Mar 23H · Eintracht Frankfurt2–23
- W12 Nov 22A · 1899 Hoffenheim2–13
FC Augsburg11 with this referee
Record3-3-5
Cards · opp.3.0 · 1.9
Pens for · against1 · 6
Reds4
- L20 Sep 25H · FSV Mainz 051–41
- D8 Feb 25A · FSV Mainz 050–03
- L12 Jan 25H · VfB Stuttgart0–15
- L22 Nov 24A · Bayern München0–32
- W28 Oct 23H · VfL Wolfsburg3–26
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
VfL Wolfsburg22 games · scored 31 · conceded 46
8
6
0-15
5
6
16-30
2
6
31-45
6
6
46-60
5
9
61-75
5
13
76-90
FC Augsburg22 games · scored 25 · conceded 39
3
4
0-15
3
9
16-30
5
8
31-45
6
7
46-60
2
6
61-75
6
5
76-90
VfL Wolfsburg10 games · scored 17 · conceded 24
5
2
0-15
3
3
16-30
1
3
31-45
4
3
46-60
1
7
61-75
3
6
76-90
FC Augsburg10 games · scored 10 · conceded 12
1
2
0-15
1
2
16-30
2
2
31-45
3
1
46-60
1
3
61-75
2
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
