VfL Wolfsburg
Attack—
Defense risk—
VfL Wolfsburg
17th · 21 pts · 26 played
DLLLD
0–1Full time
Werder Bremen
15th · 25 pts · 26 played
LLWWL
Our take
Werder Bremen were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Werder Bremen. VfL Wolfsburg had 7 days of rest, Werder Bremen 6 and had to travel 151 km.
Away travel151 kmRest days7 · 6Matches / 14d2 · 2
VfL Wolfsburg31%
Draw26%
Werder Bremen43%
VfL Wolfsburg40%
Draw27%
Werder Bremen33%
VfL Wolfsburg30%
Draw26%
Werder Bremen44%
VfL Wolfsburg25%
Draw24%
Werder Bremen51%
VfL Wolfsburg32%
Draw27%
Werder Bremen41%
Over 2.5 56%
Both score 59%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Wolfsburg)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanyBenjamin Brand
- Cards per match 4.2
- Penalties per match 0.34
- Matches 58
Team strength
VfL WolfsburgWerder Bremen
37
L90 StrengthIn forecast
43
36
Current StrengthIn forecast
43
50
AttackIn forecast
56
42
DefenceIn forecast
45
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisWerder Bremen
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
VfL WolfsburgWerder Bremen
1.35
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.12
2.15
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.81
1.21
xGVia Att/Def
1.13
1.82
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.43
+0.14
Goals minus xGContext
-0.01
81%
Scored inContext
58%
4%
Clean sheetsContext
19%
11.00
ShotsContext
13.31
3.81
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.16
35%
On target shareContext
30%
6.85
Shots in the boxContext
8.64
61%
Box shareContext
62%
12%
ConversionContext
8%
1.81
OffsidesContext
1.68
15.04
Shots allowedContext
13.00
5.58
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.20
4.28
BlocksContext
3.54
3.64
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.33
64%
Save rateContext
63%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
399
PassesContext
481
317
Accurate passesContext
398
80%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.77
Team ratingContext
6.76
11.12
FoulsContext
9.96
9.12
Fouls sufferedContext
9.27
1.92
Yellow cardsContext
2.23
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
2.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
1.06
xGVia Att/Def
1.37
1.87
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.10
+0.04
Goals minus xGContext
-0.27
80%
Scored inContext
50%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
10.40
ShotsContext
16.10
3.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
31%
On target shareContext
25%
6.40
Shots in the boxContext
11.00
61%
Box shareContext
69%
11%
ConversionContext
7%
1.86
OffsidesContext
1.50
16.10
Shots allowedContext
9.10
6.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.44
4.90
BlocksContext
2.50
4.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
1.88
67%
Save rateContext
52%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
59%
404
PassesContext
530
319
Accurate passesContext
443
79%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.79
Team ratingContext
6.74
12.20
FoulsContext
9.60
8.20
Fouls sufferedContext
8.30
2.10
Yellow cardsContext
2.10
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
VfL Wolfsburg
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km754 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Werder Bremen
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel151 km631 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| VfL Wolfsburg |
Werder Bremen |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Bundesliga 2025-2026, 14 Mar | 6Bundesliga 2025-2026, 15 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 151 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 754 km | 631 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 14 | 14 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
VfL Wolfsburg
Confirmed XI
1K. Grabara(G)
4K. Koulierakis
15M. Jenz
6J. Belocian
21J. Mæhle
5Vinicius Souza
24C. Eriksen
26S. Kumbedi
9M. Amoura
19J. Lindstrøm
23J. Wind
Werder Bremen
Confirmed XI
30M. Backhaus(G)
2O. Deman
32M. Friedl
4N. Stark
3Y. Sugawara
18Cameron Puertas
10L. Bittencourt
7S. Mbangula
20R. Schmid
17M. Grüll
11J. Njinmah
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences VfL Wolfsburg
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Werder Bremen
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- VfL Wolfsburg+1.0 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Werder Bremen-0.8 pp
Home / Away this season
VfL Wolfsburg · Home
0.69points per game · 13 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-3-8
- Scored
- 1.54
- Conceded
- 2.15
Werder Bremen · Away
0.69points per game · 13 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-3-8
- Scored
- 1.15
- Conceded
- 1.85
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | VfL Wolfsburg | Werder Bremen |
|---|---|---|
| 1899 Hoffenheim | D 1–1 AL 2–3 H | L 0–2 H |
| Hamburger SV | L 1–2 HW 1–0 A | L 2–3 A |
| VfB Stuttgart | L 0–4 AL 0–3 H | L 0–4 H |
| FC Augsburg | L 2–3 HL 1–3 A | D 0–0 A |
| RB Leipzig | D 2–2 AL 0–1 H | L 0–2 A |
| Borussia Dortmund | L 1–2 HL 0–1 A | L 0–3 A |
| 1.FC Köln | L 0–1 AD 3–3 H | D 1–1 H |
| FSV Mainz 05 | L 1–3 AD 1–1 H | L 0–2 HD 1–1 A |
| 1. FC Heidenheim | D 1–1 HW 3–1 A | W 2–0 HD 2–2 A |
| FC St. Pauli | W 2–1 H | L 1–2 AW 1–0 H |
| Bayern München | L 1–8 A | L 0–3 HL 0–4 A |
| SC Freiburg | L 3–4 H | L 0–1 AL 0–3 H |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | W 3–1 A | D 1–1 HW 4–0 A |
| Union Berlin | W 3–1 H | W 4–1 AW 1–0 H |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | D 1–1 A | D 3–3 HL 1–4 A |
| Bayer Leverkusen | L 1–3 H | L 0–1 AD 3–3 H |
| Points | 21 of 75 · 0.84 per game | 22 of 75 · 0.88 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings
2 VfL Wolfsburg wins2 draws3 Werder Bremen wins
Goals per game1.71 – 1.86
Over 2.586%
Both scored86%
Clean sheets14% · 0%
- 7 Nov 2025Werder Bremen2–1VfL Wolfsburg
- 1 Mar 2025Werder Bremen1–2VfL Wolfsburg
- 20 Oct 2024VfL Wolfsburg2–4Werder Bremen
- 30 Mar 2024Werder Bremen0–2VfL Wolfsburg
- 5 Nov 2023VfL Wolfsburg2–2Werder Bremen
- 28 Jan 2023Werder Bremen2–1VfL Wolfsburg
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| VfL Wolfsburg | Werder Bremen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.35 | 1.12 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.15 | 1.81 | |
| Match goals | 3.50 | 2.92 | 2.92 |
| Over 1.5 | 85% | 81% | |
| Over 2.5 | 69% | 54% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 35% | |
| Both teams scored | 77% | 42% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 4% | 19% | |
| Failed to score | 19% | 42% | |
| Games | 26 | 26 |
| VfL Wolfsburg | Werder Bremen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.10 | 1.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 3.10 | 2.70 | 2.92 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 40% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 40% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 50% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| VfL Wolfsburg | Werder Bremen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.80 | 5.30 | |
| Corners conceded | 7.44 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 11.24 | 10.30 | 9.57 |
| Over 8.5 | 72% 18/25 | 65% 13/20 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 15/25 | 65% 13/20 | |
| Over 10.5 | 48% 12/25 | 45% 9/20 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.96 | 2.35 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.65 | 1.54 | |
| Match total | 3.61 | 3.89 | 3.85 |
| Over 3.5 | 46% 12/26 | 58% 15/26 | |
| Over 4.5 | 38% 10/26 | 38% 10/26 | |
| VfL Wolfsburg | Werder Bremen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.30 | 5.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 7.60 | 3.20 | |
| Match total | 11.90 | 8.20 | 9.57 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 8/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 70% 7/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.10 | 2.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 3.90 | 3.90 | 3.85 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Benjamin Brand Germany · 58 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.03league 3.70
Red cards0.17league 0.17
Cards 5+43%league 37%
Fouls22.9league 20.5
Penalties0.34league 0.36
Home wins31%league 46%
VfL Wolfsburg6 with this referee
Record2-2-2
Cards · opp.2.3 · 1.5
Pens for · against1 · 1
- L4 Oct 25A · FC Augsburg1–31
- W23 Aug 25A · 1. FC Heidenheim3–13
- D2 Feb 25A · Eintracht Frankfurt1–13
- L2 Mar 24H · VfB Stuttgart2–33
- D10 Feb 23A · FC Schalke 040–04
Werder Bremen7 with this referee
Record2-3-2
Cards · opp.2.1 · 2.7
Pens for · against2 · 0
Reds1
- D16 Jan 26H · Eintracht Frankfurt3–31
- L19 Jan 25H · FC Augsburg0–21
- W15 Sep 24A · FSV Mainz 052–12
- W3 Feb 24A · FSV Mainz 051–03
- D12 Nov 23H · Eintracht Frankfurt2–21
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
VfL Wolfsburg26 games · scored 35 · conceded 56
8
6
0-15
6
8
16-30
3
8
31-45
6
8
46-60
7
9
61-75
5
17
76-90
Werder Bremen26 games · scored 29 · conceded 47
2
5
0-15
3
7
16-30
4
8
31-45
3
6
46-60
5
11
61-75
12
10
76-90
VfL Wolfsburg10 games · scored 11 · conceded 20
1
0-15
2
3
16-30
1
5
31-45
2
2
46-60
2
3
61-75
3
7
76-90
Werder Bremen10 games · scored 11 · conceded 16
3
0-15
1
3
16-30
2
2
31-45
1
4
46-60
2
3
61-75
5
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
