Bundesliga Gameweek 27 Sat, Mar 21 · 14:30 Volkswagen Arena, Wolfsburg
VfL Wolfsburg 17th · 21 pts · 26 played
0–1Full time
Werder Bremen 15th · 25 pts · 26 played
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
VfL Wolfsburg31.4%fair odds 3.18
Draw25.7%fair odds 3.90
Werder Bremen42.9%fair odds 2.33
Expected goals1.33 – 1.59total 2.92
Likeliest score1–112.0%

Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.

Match Opportunity

How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.

VfL Wolfsburg

— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.

Werder Bremen

— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.

About this comparison

The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.

Score matrix

VfL Wolfsburg ↓ · Werder Bremen →0123456+
06.08.06.83.61.40.50.2
16.612.09.14.81.90.60.2
24.87.66.03.21.30.40.1
32.13.42.71.40.60.20.1
40.71.10.90.50.20.10.0
50.20.30.20.10.00.00.0
6+0.10.10.10.00.00.00.0

Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are VfL Wolfsburg goals, columns Werder Bremen goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.

Most likely scores

  • 1–112.0%8.32
  • 1–29.1%11.03
  • 0–18.0%12.54
  • 2–17.6%13.18
  • 0–26.8%14.67
  • 1–06.6%15.19
  • 2–26.0%16.59
  • 0–06.0%16.64
  • 1–34.8%20.84
  • 2–04.8%20.93

Winning margin

4.9% VfL Wolfsburg by 3+ fair 20.43
9.2% VfL Wolfsburg by 2 fair 10.91
17.4% VfL Wolfsburg by 1 fair 5.76
25.7% Draw fair 3.90
20.9% Werder Bremen by 1 fair 4.79
13.1% Werder Bremen by 2 fair 7.65
9.0% Werder Bremen by 3+ fair 11.15

Goal distribution

Total goals

6%0
15%1
24%2
22%3
16%4
17%5+

VfL Wolfsburg goals

26%0
35%1
23%2
10%3
5%4+

Werder Bremen goals

20%0
32%1
26%2
14%3
8%4+

LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda

LOAD90EloLambdaChange
VfL Wolfsburg win 31.4% 31.7% -0.3 pp
Draw 25.7% 26.9% -1.2 pp
Werder Bremen win 42.9% 41.4% +1.5 pp
Over 2.5 55.8% 50.9% +4.9 pp
Both teams score 59.1% 55.4% +3.7 pp
Expected goals VfL Wolfsburg 1.33 1.25 +0.08
Expected goals Werder Bremen 1.59 1.46 +0.13

EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.

All markets model probability and fair odds

Result

  • VfL Wolfsburg win31.4%3.18
  • Draw25.7%3.90
  • Werder Bremen win42.9%2.33
  • Double chance VfL Wolfsburg or draw57.1%1.75
  • Double chance VfL Wolfsburg or Werder Bremen74.3%1.35
  • Double chance Werder Bremen or draw68.6%1.46
  • Draw no bet VfL Wolfsburg42.3%2.36
  • Draw no bet Werder Bremen57.7%1.73

Goals

  • Over 0.594.0%1.06
  • Over 1.579.4%1.26
  • Over 2.555.8%1.79
  • Over 3.533.4%2.99
  • Over 4.517.1%5.84
  • Under 1.520.6%4.86
  • Under 2.544.2%2.26
  • Under 3.566.6%1.50

Both teams to score

  • Yes59.1%1.69
  • No40.9%2.45
  • Yes and over 2.547.1%2.12
  • VfL Wolfsburg win and yes17.0%5.88
  • Draw and yes19.7%5.09
  • Werder Bremen win and yes22.5%4.45

Team goals

  • VfL Wolfsburg over 0.573.6%1.36
  • VfL Wolfsburg over 1.538.4%2.61
  • VfL Wolfsburg over 2.515.0%6.67
  • Werder Bremen over 0.579.6%1.26
  • Werder Bremen over 1.547.1%2.12
  • Werder Bremen over 2.521.4%4.68
  • VfL Wolfsburg clean sheet20.4%4.89
  • Werder Bremen clean sheet26.4%3.78
  • VfL Wolfsburg win to nil14.4%6.93
  • Werder Bremen win to nil20.4%4.89

Handicap

  • VfL Wolfsburg −1.514.1%7.11
  • VfL Wolfsburg −2.54.9%20.43
  • Werder Bremen +1.585.9%1.16
  • Werder Bremen +2.595.1%1.05
  • Werder Bremen −1.522.0%4.54
  • VfL Wolfsburg +1.578.0%1.28

Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.

Model track record Bundesliga 2025-2026

All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.

Matches scored235 Favourite won56.6% Avg chance given to result43.2% 1X2 Brier0.560 Over 2.5 called right60.4% BTTS called right56.2%

Calibration · when the favourite was given…

Favourite chanceMatchesPredictedActually won
30–40%3138.3%38.7%
40–50%7145.0%43.7%
50–60%6655.2%62.1%
60–70%3864.5%71.1%
70–80%1974.2%73.7%
80%+1085.9%80.0%

LOAD90 vs Bookmaker

Compared on the same 188 of 235 scored matches.

LOAD90Bookmaker
1X2 Brier (lower is better)0.55170.5466
Avg chance given to result43.6%43.3%
Favourite won58.0%58.5%

Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 188 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.

Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 235 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.