Villarreal vs Malaga – 21 Mar 2027

La Liga Gameweek 29 Sun, Mar 21 · 16:00 Estadio de la Cerámica, Villarreal

Villarreal 12th · 9 pts · 9 played LWWLD

VS— Compare

Malaga 20th · 4 pts · 9 played DLLDL

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel519 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2

Real contextStrength only

Villarreal—%

Draw—%

Malaga—%

Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.

Weather (Villarreal)

Forecast from 6 Mar

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Defence

Streaks

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Team strength

Villarreal

Malaga

— L90 StrengthIn forecast —

65 Current StrengthIn forecast 41

76 AttackIn forecast 28

73 DefenceIn forecast 31

79 Form indexContext 15

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Villarreal

Attack—

Defense risk—

Malaga

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Villarreal

Malaga

1.44 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.67

1.44 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.00

2.13 xGVia Att/Def 0.84

1.13 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.68

-0.69 Goals minus xGContext -0.17

67% Scored inContext 56%

11% Clean sheetsContext 11%

16.33 ShotsContext 11.33

6.33 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.00

39% On target shareContext 27%

11.11 Shots in the boxContext 6.67

68% Box shareContext 62%

9% ConversionContext 6%

2.89 OffsidesContext 1.63

12.00 Shots allowedContext 14.89

3.44 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.89

5.14 BlocksContext 4.00

3.33 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.78

77% Save rateContext 64%

60% PossessionIn forecast 51%

573 PassesContext 481

510 Accurate passesContext 417

89% Pass accuracyContext 87%

6.87 Team ratingContext 6.70

11.11 FoulsContext 11.56

11.67 Fouls sufferedContext 11.67

1.78 Yellow cardsContext 2.44

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 9 and 9 games

1.60 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.80

1.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.90

2.12 xGVia Att/Def 0.84

1.30 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.68

-0.52 Goals minus xGContext -0.04

70% Scored inContext 60%

10% Clean sheetsContext 10%

16.50 ShotsContext 11.40

6.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.20

36% On target shareContext 28%

11.00 Shots in the boxContext 7.00

67% Box shareContext 64%

10% ConversionContext 7%

2.90 OffsidesContext 1.63

12.00 Shots allowedContext 14.70

3.70 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.90

4.63 BlocksContext 3.70

3.29 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.90

72% Save rateContext 66%

59% PossessionIn forecast 51%

560 PassesContext 474

493 Accurate passesContext 408

88% Pass accuracyContext 86%

6.86 Team ratingContext 6.74

10.40 FoulsContext 10.90

12.10 Fouls sufferedContext 11.50

1.70 Yellow cardsContext 2.50

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Villarreal WWLWD

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km387 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 79 · 10 pts vs 6.2 for an average club · +2.2 vs expected

D17 OctH · Elche0–02.1 xPts
W13 OctH · Napoli3–11.7 xPts
L10 OctA · Real Madrid0–10.7 xPts
W20 SepH · Levante3–11.9 xPts
W17 SepA · Malaga3–11.5 xPts

Malaga DLLDL

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel519 km740 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

Form 15 · 2 pts vs 6.8 for an average club · -4.7 vs expected

L18 OctH · Real Sociedad2–51.5 xPts
D9 OctH · Espanyol1–11.6 xPts
L20 SepA · Getafe0–11.2 xPts
L17 SepH · Villarreal1–31.3 xPts
D13 SepA · Celta Vigo1–11.2 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Villarreal	Malaga
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7La Liga 2026-2027, 14 Mar	7La Liga 2026-2027, 14 Mar
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	519 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	387 km	740 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 4	1 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	14	14

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Villarreal Last XI · not confirmed

4-4-2 · vs Elche (H) 0–0, 17 Oct

25P. Gulácsi(G)

23Sergi Cardona 2Logan Costa 8J. Foyth 3A. Freeman

10Alberto Moleiro 16Carlos Macia 14Santi Comesaña 11I. Akhomach

21T. Oluwaseyi 22Ayoze Pérez

Malaga Last XI · not confirmed

4-4-2 · vs Real Sociedad (H) 2–5, 18 Oct

1Alfonso Herrero(G)

12José Salinas 15Ángel Recio 20F. Calero Villa 31Rafita

18Pablo Martínez 8Carlos Dotor 23Izan Merino 10David Larrubia

9Chupe 21Adrián Niño

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Villarreal Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh

Malaga Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh

Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Villarreal · Home 1.00points per game · 4 home games

W-D-L: 1-1-2
Scored: 1.50
Conceded: 1.50

Malaga · Away 0.25points per game · 4 away games

W-D-L: 0-1-3
Scored: 0.25
Conceded: 2.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 4 this season

Opponent	Villarreal	Malaga
Real Madrid	L 0–1 A	L 0–4 A
Levante	W 3–1 H	D 0–0 H
Deportivo La Coruna	L 2–3 H	D 1–1 H
Atletico Madrid	D 2–2 A	L 0–2 A
Points	4 of 12 · 1.00 per game	2 of 12 · 0.50 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings

1 Villarreal wins0 draws0 Malaga wins

Goals per game3.00 – 1.00 Over 2.5100% Both scored100% Clean sheets0% · 0%

17 Sep 2026Malaga1–3Villarreal

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Villarreal	Malaga
Scored per game	1.44	0.67
Conceded per game	1.44	2.00
Match goals	2.89	2.67
Over 1.5	67%	78%
Over 2.5	67%	33%
Over 3.5	56%	33%
Both teams scored	67%	56%
Clean sheets	11%	11%
Failed to score	33%	44%
Games	9	9

	Villarreal	Malaga
Scored per game	1.60	0.67
Conceded per game	1.50	2.00
Match goals	3.10	2.67
Over 1.5	70%	78%
Over 2.5	70%	33%
Over 3.5	60%	33%
Both teams scored	70%	56%
Clean sheets	10%	11%
Failed to score	30%	44%
Games	10	9

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Villarreal	Malaga	League
Corners
Corners won	7.11	5.56
Corners conceded	4.44	4.89
Match total	11.55	10.45	9.91
Over 8.5	67% 6/9	78% 7/9
Over 9.5	67% 6/9	67% 6/9
Over 10.5	67% 6/9	44% 4/9
Cards
Cards	1.78	2.44
Opponent cards	3.00	2.33
Match total	4.78	4.77	4.73
Over 3.5	78% 7/9	67% 6/9
Over 4.5	56% 5/9	67% 6/9

	Villarreal	Malaga	League
Corners
Corners won	6.50	5.70
Corners conceded	4.70	5.10
Match total	11.20	10.80	9.91
Over 8.5	60% 6/10	80% 8/10
Over 9.5	60% 6/10	70% 7/10
Over 10.5	60% 6/10	50% 5/10
Cards
Cards	1.70	2.60
Opponent cards	2.90	2.30
Match total	4.60	4.90	4.73
Over 3.5	80% 8/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	70% 7/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.