Werder Bremen
Attack—
Defense risk—
Werder Bremen
17th · 19 pts · 23 played
LDLLL
2–0Full time
1. FC Heidenheim
18th · 14 pts · 23 played
LLLLD
Our take
Werder Bremen were clear favourites.
Werder Bremen were the stronger side on L90 Strength (41 vs 24). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Werder Bremen. Werder Bremen had 5.9 days of rest, 1. FC Heidenheim 5.8 and had to travel 498 km.
Away travel498 kmRest days5.9 · 5.8Matches / 14d2 · 2
Werder Bremen61%
Draw21%
1. FC Heidenheim18%
Werder Bremen55%
Draw24%
1. FC Heidenheim21%
Werder Bremen59%
Draw22%
1. FC Heidenheim19%
Werder Bremen53%
Draw23%
1. FC Heidenheim23%
Werder Bremen59%
Draw22%
1. FC Heidenheim18%
Over 2.5 62%
Both score 59%
Likeliest score 2–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Bremen)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanyFlorian Badstubner
- Cards per match 3.7
- Penalties per match 0.25
- Matches 67
Team strength
Werder Bremen1. FC Heidenheim
41
L90 StrengthIn forecast
24
43
Current StrengthIn forecast
29
56
AttackIn forecast
48
45
DefenceIn forecast
39
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysis1. FC Heidenheim
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Werder Bremen1. FC Heidenheim
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.96
1.91
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.22
1.06
xGVia Att/Def
1.23
1.46
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.82
-0.06
Goals minus xGContext
-0.27
57%
Scored inContext
61%
17%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
13.00
ShotsContext
11.57
4.18
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.59
31%
On target shareContext
30%
8.27
Shots in the boxContext
7.76
61%
Box shareContext
65%
8%
ConversionContext
8%
1.74
OffsidesContext
2.22
13.43
Shots allowedContext
15.00
5.48
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.57
3.50
BlocksContext
3.78
3.43
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.30
63%
Save rateContext
59%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
42%
469
PassesContext
354
387
Accurate passesContext
274
82%
Pass accuracyContext
77%
6.74
Team ratingContext
6.70
9.78
FoulsContext
10.04
9.57
Fouls sufferedContext
10.00
2.26
Yellow cardsContext
1.61
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.04
0.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
2.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.30
1.01
xGVia Att/Def
1.52
1.21
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.98
-0.51
Goals minus xGContext
-0.52
30%
Scored inContext
60%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
13.70
ShotsContext
13.10
3.78
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.70
25%
On target shareContext
28%
8.80
Shots in the boxContext
9.00
62%
Box shareContext
69%
4%
ConversionContext
8%
1.63
OffsidesContext
2.75
11.30
Shots allowedContext
14.60
5.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.30
2.89
BlocksContext
3.70
3.10
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.70
62%
Save rateContext
59%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
485
PassesContext
365
400
Accurate passesContext
281
83%
Pass accuracyContext
77%
6.69
Team ratingContext
6.70
10.00
FoulsContext
9.90
9.10
Fouls sufferedContext
8.50
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Werder Bremen
Rest5.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km190 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
1. FC Heidenheim
Rest5.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel498 km129 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Werder Bremen |
1. FC Heidenheim |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5.9Bundesliga 2025-2026, 22 Feb | 5.8Bundesliga 2025-2026, 22 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 498 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 190 km | 129 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8.1 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Werder Bremen
Confirmed XI
30M. Backhaus(G)
2O. Deman
32M. Friedl
4N. Stark
3Y. Sugawara
18Cameron Puertas
14S. Lynen
6J. Stage
20R. Schmid
17M. Grüll
19J. Milošević
1. FC Heidenheim
Confirmed XI
40F. Feller(G)
26Hennes Behrens
5B. Gimber
6P. Mainka
23O. Traoré
3J. Schöppner
16J. Niehues
30N. Dorsch
22A. Ibrahimović
8E. Dinkçi
10C. Conteh
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Werder Bremen
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
1. FC Heidenheim
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.12 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Werder Bremen+2.0 pp
- Draw-1.0 pp
- 1. FC Heidenheim-1.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Werder Bremen · Home
1.18points per game · 11 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-4-4
- Scored
- 1.09
- Conceded
- 1.91
1. FC Heidenheim · Away
0.36points per game · 11 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-9
- Scored
- 0.82
- Conceded
- 2.18
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Werder Bremen | 1. FC Heidenheim |
|---|---|---|
| FC St. Pauli | L 1–2 AW 1–0 H | L 1–2 A |
| Bayern München | L 0–3 HL 0–4 A | L 0–4 H |
| SC Freiburg | L 0–1 AL 0–3 H | W 2–1 H |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | D 1–1 HW 4–0 A | L 0–3 H |
| 1899 Hoffenheim | L 0–2 H | L 1–3 A |
| Bayer Leverkusen | L 0–1 AD 3–3 H | L 0–6 A |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | D 3–3 HL 1–4 A | D 1–1 H |
| Borussia Dortmund | L 0–3 A | L 2–3 AL 0–2 H |
| FC Augsburg | D 0–0 A | L 0–1 AW 2–1 H |
| VfB Stuttgart | L 0–4 H | D 3–3 HL 0–1 A |
| Hamburger SV | L 2–3 A | L 0–2 HL 1–2 A |
| 1.FC Köln | D 1–1 H | D 2–2 H |
| RB Leipzig | L 0–2 A | L 0–3 HL 0–2 A |
| VfL Wolfsburg | W 2–1 H | D 1–1 AL 1–3 H |
| FSV Mainz 05 | D 1–1 A | L 1–2 A |
| Union Berlin | W 1–0 H | W 2–1 A |
| Points | 18 of 66 · 0.82 per game | 13 of 66 · 0.59 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings
1 Werder Bremen wins2 draws2 1. FC Heidenheim wins
Goals per game2.40 – 2.40
Over 2.5100%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 18 Oct 20251. FC Heidenheim2–2Werder Bremen
- 17 May 20251. FC Heidenheim1–4Werder Bremen
- 15 Jan 2025Werder Bremen3–31. FC Heidenheim
- 10 Feb 2024Werder Bremen1–21. FC Heidenheim
- 17 Sep 20231. FC Heidenheim4–2Werder Bremen
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Werder Bremen | 1. FC Heidenheim | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 0.96 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.91 | 2.22 | |
| Match goals | 2.91 | 3.17 | 3.22 |
| Over 1.5 | 78% | 91% | |
| Over 2.5 | 57% | 70% | 62% |
| Over 3.5 | 35% | 35% | |
| Both teams scored | 43% | 61% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 43% | 39% | |
| Games | 23 | 23 |
| Werder Bremen | 1. FC Heidenheim | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.50 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 2.30 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 3.30 | 3.22 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 70% | 62% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 60% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 70% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Werder Bremen | 1. FC Heidenheim | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.41 | 4.90 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.47 | 5.14 | |
| Match total | 10.88 | 10.04 | 9.64 |
| Over 8.5 | 71% 12/17 | 71% 15/21 | |
| Over 9.5 | 71% 12/17 | 48% 10/21 | |
| Over 10.5 | 47% 8/17 | 43% 9/21 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.39 | 1.65 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.61 | 1.96 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 3.61 | 3.95 |
| Over 3.5 | 61% 14/23 | 48% 11/23 | |
| Over 4.5 | 39% 9/23 | 35% 8/23 | |
| Werder Bremen | 1. FC Heidenheim | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.56 | 5.25 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.78 | 6.13 | |
| Match total | 9.34 | 11.38 | 9.64 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 5/9 | 75% 6/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 1.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 3.10 | 3.95 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Florian Badstubner Germany · 67 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.52league 3.79
Red cards0.18league 0.17
Cards 5+33%league 39%
Fouls22.3league 20.6
Penalties0.25league 0.36
Home wins49%league 46%
Werder Bremen8 with this referee
Record2-3-3
Cards · opp.2.4 · 2.4
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D1 Nov 25A · FSV Mainz 051–13
- L23 Nov 24A · Eintracht Frankfurt0–12
- D26 Oct 24H · Bayer Leverkusen2–21
- D24 Feb 24H · SV Darmstadt 981–13
- L14 May 23A · RB Leipzig1–24
1. FC Heidenheim5 with this referee
Record2-0-3
Cards · opp.0.4 · 1.6
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L21 Dec 25H · Bayern München0–40
- W10 May 25A · Union Berlin3–00
- L25 Jan 25A · FC Augsburg1–20
- W5 Nov 23H · VfB Stuttgart2–02
- L19 Aug 23A · VfL Wolfsburg0–20
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Werder Bremen23 games · scored 23 · conceded 44
2
4
0-15
3
6
16-30
2
8
31-45
2
5
46-60
4
11
61-75
10
10
76-90
1. FC Heidenheim23 games · scored 22 · conceded 51
1
3
0-15
3
7
16-30
4
13
31-45
5
9
46-60
3
9
61-75
6
10
76-90
Werder Bremen10 games · scored 5 · conceded 20
3
0-15
1
2
16-30
4
31-45
3
46-60
1
3
61-75
3
5
76-90
1. FC Heidenheim10 games · scored 10 · conceded 23
1
2
0-15
2
2
16-30
3
5
31-45
2
3
46-60
1
5
61-75
1
6
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
