Bundesliga Gameweek 24 Sat, Feb 28 · 14:30 wohninvest WESERSTADION, Bremen
Werder Bremen 17th · 19 pts · 23 played
2–0Full time
1. FC Heidenheim 18th · 14 pts · 23 played
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Werder Bremen61.2%fair odds 1.63
Draw21.1%fair odds 4.74
1. FC Heidenheim17.7%fair odds 5.66
Expected goals2.14 – 1.08total 3.22
Likeliest score2–19.9%

Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.

Match Opportunity

How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.

Werder Bremen

— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.

1. FC Heidenheim

— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.

About this comparison

The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.

Score matrix

Werder Bremen ↓ · 1. FC Heidenheim →0123456+
04.53.82.30.80.20.00.0
18.19.75.01.80.50.10.0
29.29.95.31.90.50.10.0
36.67.13.81.40.40.10.0
43.53.82.00.70.20.00.0
51.51.60.90.30.10.00.0
6+0.80.80.40.20.00.00.0

Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Werder Bremen goals, columns 1. FC Heidenheim goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.

Most likely scores

  • 2–19.9%10.12
  • 1–19.7%10.30
  • 2–09.2%10.90
  • 1–08.1%12.39
  • 3–17.1%14.16
  • 3–06.6%15.25
  • 2–25.3%18.80
  • 1–25.0%20.15
  • 0–04.5%22.31
  • 0–13.8%26.23

Winning margin

20.0% Werder Bremen by 3+ fair 4.99
18.6% Werder Bremen by 2 fair 5.37
22.6% Werder Bremen by 1 fair 4.43
21.1% Draw fair 4.74
11.1% 1. FC Heidenheim by 1 fair 9.01
4.7% 1. FC Heidenheim by 2 fair 21.28
1.9% 1. FC Heidenheim by 3+ fair 53.47

Goal distribution

Total goals

4%0
12%1
21%2
22%3
18%4
22%5+

Werder Bremen goals

12%0
25%1
27%2
19%3
17%4+

1. FC Heidenheim goals

34%0
37%1
20%2
7%3
2%4+

LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda

LOAD90EloLambdaChange
Werder Bremen win 61.2% 59.5% +1.8 pp
Draw 21.1% 22.3% -1.2 pp
1. FC Heidenheim win 17.7% 18.3% -0.6 pp
Over 2.5 62.4% 58.4% +4.0 pp
Both teams score 58.7% 56.1% +2.5 pp
Expected goals Werder Bremen 2.14 2.01 +0.14
Expected goals 1. FC Heidenheim 1.08 1.03 +0.05

EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.

All markets model probability and fair odds

Result

  • Werder Bremen win61.2%1.63
  • Draw21.1%4.74
  • 1. FC Heidenheim win17.7%5.66
  • Double chance Werder Bremen or draw82.3%1.21
  • Double chance Werder Bremen or 1. FC Heidenheim78.9%1.27
  • Double chance 1. FC Heidenheim or draw38.8%2.58
  • Draw no bet Werder Bremen77.6%1.29
  • Draw no bet 1. FC Heidenheim22.4%4.47

Goals

  • Over 0.595.5%1.05
  • Over 1.583.6%1.20
  • Over 2.562.4%1.60
  • Over 3.540.2%2.49
  • Over 4.522.3%4.48
  • Under 1.516.4%6.11
  • Under 2.537.6%2.66
  • Under 3.559.8%1.67

Both teams to score

  • Yes58.7%1.70
  • No41.3%2.42
  • Yes and over 2.549.0%2.04
  • Werder Bremen win and yes31.7%3.16
  • Draw and yes16.6%6.02
  • 1. FC Heidenheim win and yes10.4%9.59

Team goals

  • Werder Bremen over 0.588.3%1.13
  • Werder Bremen over 1.563.1%1.58
  • Werder Bremen over 2.536.2%2.76
  • 1. FC Heidenheim over 0.565.9%1.52
  • 1. FC Heidenheim over 1.529.2%3.42
  • 1. FC Heidenheim over 2.59.5%10.53
  • Werder Bremen clean sheet34.1%2.94
  • 1. FC Heidenheim clean sheet11.7%8.53
  • Werder Bremen win to nil29.6%3.38
  • 1. FC Heidenheim win to nil7.2%13.81

Handicap

  • Werder Bremen −1.538.7%2.59
  • Werder Bremen −2.520.0%4.99
  • 1. FC Heidenheim +1.561.3%1.63
  • 1. FC Heidenheim +2.580.0%1.25
  • 1. FC Heidenheim −1.56.6%15.22
  • Werder Bremen +1.593.4%1.07

Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.

Model track record Bundesliga 2025-2026

All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.

Matches scored207 Favourite won56.5% Avg chance given to result43.2% 1X2 Brier0.560 Over 2.5 called right63.3% BTTS called right57.5%

Calibration · when the favourite was given…

Favourite chanceMatchesPredictedActually won
30–40%2838.2%39.3%
40–50%6345.1%44.4%
50–60%5855.3%60.3%
60–70%3264.7%71.9%
70–80%1774.3%76.5%
80%+985.8%77.8%

LOAD90 vs Bookmaker

Compared on the same 187 of 207 scored matches.

LOAD90Bookmaker
1X2 Brier (lower is better)0.55280.5475
Avg chance given to result43.6%43.2%
Favourite won57.8%58.3%

Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 187 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.

Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 207 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.