Werder Bremen
Attack—
Defense risk—
Werder Bremen
14th · 25 pts · 25 played
LLLWW
0–2Full time
FSV Mainz 05
15th · 24 pts · 25 played
WLDDD
Our take
Werder Bremen were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Werder Bremen had 6.9 days of rest, FSV Mainz 05 8 and had to travel 346 km.
Away travel346 kmRest days6.9 · 8Matches / 14d1 · 1
Werder Bremen41%
Draw27%
FSV Mainz 0532%
Werder Bremen41%
Draw27%
FSV Mainz 0532%
Werder Bremen41%
Draw27%
FSV Mainz 0532%
Werder Bremen34%
Draw27%
FSV Mainz 0539%
Werder Bremen40%
Draw28%
FSV Mainz 0532%
Over 2.5 52%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Bremen)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanyMitja Stegemann
Team strength
Werder BremenFSV Mainz 05
45
L90 StrengthIn forecast
50
43
Current StrengthIn forecast
55
56
AttackIn forecast
68
45
DefenceIn forecast
56
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisFSV Mainz 05
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Werder BremenFSV Mainz 05
1.16
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.16
1.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.64
1.15
xGVia Att/Def
1.37
1.44
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.53
+0.01
Goals minus xGContext
-0.21
60%
Scored inContext
64%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
8%
13.20
ShotsContext
11.04
4.21
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.75
31%
On target shareContext
33%
8.42
Shots in the boxContext
8.75
61%
Box shareContext
74%
9%
ConversionContext
11%
1.71
OffsidesContext
2.57
13.08
Shots allowedContext
14.32
5.33
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.04
3.48
BlocksContext
4.04
3.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.36
63%
Save rateContext
67%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
477
PassesContext
362
394
Accurate passesContext
271
83%
Pass accuracyContext
75%
6.76
Team ratingContext
6.80
10.08
FoulsContext
10.68
9.36
Fouls sufferedContext
10.20
2.24
Yellow cardsContext
2.20
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.16
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
1.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
1.32
xGVia Att/Def
1.73
1.19
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.03
-0.22
Goals minus xGContext
-0.33
50%
Scored inContext
80%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
15.00
ShotsContext
11.40
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.90
27%
On target shareContext
43%
9.80
Shots in the boxContext
8.70
64%
Box shareContext
76%
7%
ConversionContext
12%
1.56
OffsidesContext
3.00
9.50
Shots allowedContext
12.40
3.89
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.20
2.38
BlocksContext
3.50
2.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
51%
Save rateContext
71%
57%
PossessionIn forecast
42%
524
PassesContext
345
438
Accurate passesContext
260
84%
Pass accuracyContext
75%
6.73
Team ratingContext
6.88
9.70
FoulsContext
10.10
8.90
Fouls sufferedContext
9.30
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
2.20
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Werder Bremen
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km631 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
FSV Mainz 05
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel346 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Werder Bremen |
FSV Mainz 05 |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.9Bundesliga 2025-2026, 8 Mar | 8Bundesliga 2025-2026, 7 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 346 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 631 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Werder Bremen
Confirmed XI
30M. Backhaus(G)
2O. Deman
32M. Friedl
22J. Malatini
3Y. Sugawara
20R. Schmid
18Cameron Puertas
10L. Bittencourt
6J. Stage
17M. Grüll
9K. Topp
FSV Mainz 05
Confirmed XI
33D. Batz(G)
31D. Kohr
4S. Posch
21D. da Costa
2P. Mwene
7J. Lee
6K. Sano
8P. Nebel
30S. Widmer
23S. Becker
20P. Tietz
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Werder Bremen
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
FSV Mainz 05
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Werder Bremen+0.4 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- FSV Mainz 05-0.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Werder Bremen · Home
1.33points per game · 12 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-4-4
- Scored
- 1.17
- Conceded
- 1.75
FSV Mainz 05 · Away
0.83points per game · 12 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-4-6
- Scored
- 1.17
- Conceded
- 2.08
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Werder Bremen | FSV Mainz 05 |
|---|---|---|
| Union Berlin | W 4–1 AW 1–0 H | D 2–2 A |
| 1. FC Heidenheim | W 2–0 HD 2–2 A | W 2–1 H |
| FC St. Pauli | L 1–2 AW 1–0 H | D 0–0 H |
| Bayern München | L 0–3 HL 0–4 A | D 2–2 A |
| SC Freiburg | L 0–1 AL 0–3 H | L 0–4 A |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | D 1–1 HW 4–0 A | L 0–1 H |
| 1899 Hoffenheim | L 0–2 H | D 1–1 H |
| Bayer Leverkusen | L 0–1 AD 3–3 H | D 1–1 AL 3–4 H |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | D 3–3 HL 1–4 A | L 0–1 A |
| Borussia Dortmund | L 0–3 A | L 0–4 AL 0–2 H |
| FC Augsburg | D 0–0 A | W 2–0 HW 4–1 A |
| VfB Stuttgart | L 0–4 H | D 2–2 HL 1–2 A |
| Hamburger SV | L 2–3 A | D 1–1 HL 0–4 A |
| 1.FC Köln | D 1–1 H | L 1–2 AL 0–1 H |
| RB Leipzig | L 0–2 A | W 2–1 AL 0–1 H |
| VfL Wolfsburg | W 2–1 H | W 3–1 HD 1–1 A |
| Points | 24 of 72 · 1.00 per game | 23 of 72 · 0.96 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings
4 Werder Bremen wins2 draws1 FSV Mainz 05 wins
Goals per game1.57 – 0.86
Over 2.543%
Both scored43%
Clean sheets43% · 14%
- 1 Nov 2025FSV Mainz 051–1Werder Bremen
- 31 Jan 2025Werder Bremen1–0FSV Mainz 05
- 15 Sep 2024FSV Mainz 051–2Werder Bremen
- 3 Feb 2024FSV Mainz 050–1Werder Bremen
- 2 Sep 2023Werder Bremen4–0FSV Mainz 05
- 8 Apr 2023FSV Mainz 052–2Werder Bremen
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Werder Bremen | FSV Mainz 05 | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.16 | 1.16 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.80 | 1.64 | |
| Match goals | 2.96 | 2.80 | 2.74 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 56% | 52% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 36% | 36% | |
| Both teams scored | 44% | 60% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 8% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 36% | |
| Games | 25 | 25 |
| Werder Bremen | FSV Mainz 05 | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.10 | 1.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.70 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.80 | 3.10 | 2.74 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 70% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 80% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Werder Bremen | FSV Mainz 05 | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.16 | 5.13 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.05 | 4.17 | |
| Match total | 10.21 | 9.30 | 9.59 |
| Over 8.5 | 63% 12/19 | 57% 13/23 | |
| Over 9.5 | 63% 12/19 | 43% 10/23 | |
| Over 10.5 | 42% 8/19 | 35% 8/23 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.36 | 2.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.56 | 1.76 | |
| Match total | 3.92 | 4.16 | 3.88 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 15/25 | 64% 16/25 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 10/25 | 36% 9/25 | |
| Werder Bremen | FSV Mainz 05 | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.50 | 4.80 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.10 | 4.10 | |
| Match total | 7.60 | 8.90 | 9.59 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 2.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 3.80 | 4.00 | 3.88 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
Werder Bremen25 games · scored 29 · conceded 45
2
4
0-15
3
7
16-30
4
8
31-45
3
5
46-60
5
11
61-75
12
10
76-90
FSV Mainz 0525 games · scored 29 · conceded 41
2
9
0-15
4
4
16-30
7
6
31-45
3
5
46-60
7
2
61-75
6
15
76-90
Werder Bremen10 games · scored 11 · conceded 17
3
0-15
1
3
16-30
2
2
31-45
1
3
46-60
2
3
61-75
5
3
76-90
FSV Mainz 0510 games · scored 14 · conceded 13
1
3
0-15
2
16-30
3
2
31-45
2
2
46-60
3
1
61-75
3
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
