West Ham
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Aston Villa were slight favourites.
Aston Villa were the stronger side on L90 Strength (85 vs 56). Aston Villa come in after 4+ matches in 14 days. West Ham had 7 days of rest, Aston Villa 2.8 and had to travel 163 km.
Away travel163 kmRest days7 · 2.8Matches / 14d3 · 4
West Ham26%
Draw25%
Aston Villa49%
West Ham23%
Draw25%
Aston Villa52%
West Ham25%
Draw25%
Aston Villa49%
West Ham20%
Draw23%
Aston Villa57%
West Ham24%
Draw25%
Aston Villa51%
Over 2.5 55%
Both score 58%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (London)
No weather data yet
RefereeAnthony Taylor
- Cards per match 3.8
- Penalties per match 0.28
- Matches 197
Team strength
West Ham
Aston Villa
56
L90 StrengthIn forecast
85
64
Current StrengthIn forecast
82
68
AttackIn forecast
83
64
DefenceIn forecast
78
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAston Villa
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
West HamAston Villa
1.13
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.47
1.93
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.02
xGVia Att/Def
1.10
1.71
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.39
+0.11
Goals minus xGContext
+0.37
67%
Scored inContext
67%
7%
Clean sheetsContext
33%
10.13
ShotsContext
11.87
4.23
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.27
36%
On target shareContext
36%
7.36
Shots in the boxContext
8.07
69%
Box shareContext
62%
11%
ConversionContext
12%
2.08
OffsidesContext
1.89
15.80
Shots allowedContext
12.73
5.33
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
5.14
BlocksContext
4.00
3.53
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.80
66%
Save rateContext
70%
42%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
366
PassesContext
431
290
Accurate passesContext
364
79%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.74
Team ratingContext
6.90
10.40
FoulsContext
10.20
10.53
Fouls sufferedContext
14.13
1.67
Yellow cardsContext
1.47
0.07
Red cardsContext
0.07
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.90
1.03
xGVia Att/Def
1.44
1.79
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.24
+0.17
Goals minus xGContext
+0.56
70%
Scored inContext
90%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
10.10
ShotsContext
13.30
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.90
32%
On target shareContext
44%
7.11
Shots in the boxContext
9.10
64%
Box shareContext
70%
12%
ConversionContext
15%
2.00
OffsidesContext
1.40
17.20
Shots allowedContext
12.10
5.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.30
6.00
BlocksContext
3.70
4.30
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.44
75%
Save rateContext
74%
40%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
340
PassesContext
452
262
Accurate passesContext
387
77%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.80
Team ratingContext
6.97
11.00
FoulsContext
11.10
11.40
Fouls sufferedContext
14.60
2.10
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
West Ham
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km667 km in 14d
Schedule load15%Low
Aston Villa
Rest2.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d4High congestion
Travel163 km2,177 km in 14d
Schedule load48%High
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| West Ham |
Aston Villa |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 15 | High · 48 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | Yes |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Premier League 2025-2026, 7 Dec | 2.8UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 11 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 163 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 667 km | 2,177 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 3 / 4 | 1 / 4 / 6 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6 | 7.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
West Ham
Confirmed XI
23A. Areola(G)
12E. Diouf
25J. Todibo
15K. Mavropanos
29A. Wan-Bissaka
18Mateus Fernandes
32F. Potts
27S. Magassa
10Lucas Paquetá
7C. Summerville
20J. Bowen
Aston Villa
Confirmed XI
40M. Bizot(G)
22I. Maatsen
3V. Lindelöf
4E. Konsa
2M. Cash
24A. Onana
44B. Kamara
27M. Rogers
8Y. Tielemans
7J. McGinn
11O. Watkins
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences West Ham
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Aston Villa
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- West Ham+0.6 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Aston Villa-0.5 pp
Home / Away this season
West Ham · Home
0.86points per game · 7 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-5
- Scored
- 1.14
- Conceded
- 2.43
Aston Villa · Away
1.57points per game · 7 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-2-2
- Scored
- 1.29
- Conceded
- 1.29
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 12 this season
| Opponent | West Ham | Aston Villa |
|---|---|---|
| Brighton | D 1–1 A | W 4–3 A |
| Liverpool | L 0–2 H | L 0–2 A |
| Bournemouth | D 2–2 A | W 4–0 H |
| Burnley | W 3–2 H | W 2–1 H |
| Newcastle | W 3–1 H | D 0–0 H |
| Leeds | L 1–2 A | W 2–1 A |
| Brentford | L 0–2 H | L 0–1 A |
| Arsenal | L 0–2 A | W 2–1 H |
| Everton | D 1–1 A | D 0–0 A |
| Crystal Palace | L 1–2 H | L 0–3 H |
| Tottenham | L 0–3 H | W 2–1 A |
| Sunderland | L 0–3 A | D 1–1 A |
| Points | 9 of 36 · 0.75 per game | 21 of 36 · 1.75 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings
5 West Ham wins3 draws2 Aston Villa wins
Goals per game1.70 – 1.30
Over 2.560%
Both scored90%
Clean sheets10% · 0%
- 26 Jan 2025Aston Villa1–1West Ham
- 17 Aug 2024West Ham1–2Aston Villa
- 17 Mar 2024West Ham1–1Aston Villa
- 22 Oct 2023Aston Villa4–1West Ham
- 12 Mar 2023West Ham1–1Aston Villa
- 28 Aug 2022Aston Villa0–1West Ham
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| West Ham | Aston Villa | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.13 | 1.47 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.93 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.07 | 2.47 | 2.90 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 53% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 27% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 47% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 7% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 33% | |
| Games | 15 | 15 |
| West Ham | Aston Villa | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.20 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 0.90 | |
| Match goals | 2.80 | 2.90 | 2.90 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 60% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| West Ham | Aston Villa | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.60 | 5.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.73 | 4.87 | |
| Match total | 12.33 | 10.07 | 10.01 |
| Over 8.5 | 87% 13/15 | 80% 12/15 | |
| Over 9.5 | 80% 12/15 | 73% 11/15 | |
| Over 10.5 | 80% 12/15 | 53% 8/15 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 1.53 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.53 | 2.60 | |
| Match total | 3.33 | 4.13 | 3.76 |
| Over 3.5 | 47% 7/15 | 73% 11/15 | |
| Over 4.5 | 27% 4/15 | 40% 6/15 | |
| West Ham | Aston Villa | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.30 | 4.56 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.10 | 3.56 | |
| Match total | 11.40 | 8.12 | 10.01 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 8/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 70% 7/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 70% 7/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.20 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 2.60 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 4.10 | 3.76 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Anthony Taylor 197 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.69league 3.64
Red cards0.15league 0.12
Cards 5+35%league 39%
Fouls21.1league 22.0
Penalties0.28league 0.20
Home wins35%league 49%
West Ham14 with this referee
Record6-3-5
Cards · opp.1.5 · 0.8
Pens for · against0 · 4
Reds1
- W27 Feb 25H · Leicester2–00
- L29 Dec 24H · Liverpool0–50
- L30 Nov 24H · Arsenal2–54
- W5 Oct 24H · Ipswich4–10
- D27 Apr 24H · Liverpool2–20
Aston Villa9 with this referee
Record6-2-1
Cards · opp.2.7 · 3.1
Pens for · against2 · 0
Reds2
- L26 Dec 24A · Newcastle0–32
- D22 Dec 23H · Sheffield Utd1–13
- W20 Aug 23H · Everton4–03
- W8 Apr 23H · Nottingham Forest2–03
- W25 Feb 23A · Everton2–01
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
West Ham15 games · scored 17 · conceded 29
2
4
0-15
2
16-30
4
5
31-45
1
6
46-60
2
6
61-75
8
6
76-90
Aston Villa15 games · scored 22 · conceded 15
5
0-15
3
2
16-30
6
1
31-45
4
2
46-60
4
2
61-75
5
3
76-90
West Ham10 games · scored 12 · conceded 16
1
3
0-15
1
16-30
4
3
31-45
2
46-60
2
2
61-75
5
5
76-90
Aston Villa10 games · scored 20 · conceded 9
1
2
0-15
3
1
16-30
6
2
31-45
4
2
46-60
2
61-75
4
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
