West Ham
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Fulham were the stronger side on L90 Strength (66 vs 54). Absences weigh more on Fulham. West Ham had 7 days of rest, Fulham 4.8 and had to travel 0 km.
Away travel0 kmRest days7 · 4.8Matches / 14d2 · 2
West Ham37%
Draw27%
Fulham36%
West Ham36%
Draw27%
Fulham36%
West Ham36%
Draw27%
Fulham37%
West Ham30%
Draw26%
Fulham43%
West Ham38%
Draw27%
Fulham35%
Over 2.5 53%
Both score 57%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (London)
No weather data yet
RefereeChris Kavanagh
- Cards per match 4.0
- Penalties per match 0.24
- Matches 144
Team strength
West Ham
Fulham
54
L90 StrengthIn forecast
66
64
Current StrengthIn forecast
65
68
AttackIn forecast
66
64
DefenceIn forecast
68
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisFulham
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
West HamFulham
1.12
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.41
2.06
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.53
1.02
xGVia Att/Def
1.12
1.68
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.34
+0.10
Goals minus xGContext
+0.29
65%
Scored inContext
82%
6%
Clean sheetsContext
24%
9.94
ShotsContext
11.35
4.07
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.88
36%
On target shareContext
32%
7.19
Shots in the boxContext
7.81
69%
Box shareContext
66%
11%
ConversionContext
12%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.20
15.35
Shots allowedContext
11.29
5.41
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.18
4.69
BlocksContext
3.41
3.53
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.07
65%
Save rateContext
71%
42%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
369
PassesContext
459
294
Accurate passesContext
382
80%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.70
Team ratingContext
6.83
10.82
FoulsContext
11.35
11.00
Fouls sufferedContext
10.53
1.59
Yellow cardsContext
1.94
0.06
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.60
1.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.07
xGVia Att/Def
1.18
1.72
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.37
+0.23
Goals minus xGContext
+0.42
70%
Scored inContext
80%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
10.00
ShotsContext
12.00
3.89
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.33
35%
On target shareContext
33%
6.60
Shots in the boxContext
8.56
65%
Box shareContext
66%
13%
ConversionContext
13%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.38
16.30
Shots allowedContext
12.10
5.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.20
5.00
BlocksContext
3.80
4.20
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.38
72%
Save rateContext
75%
39%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
350
PassesContext
475
271
Accurate passesContext
395
78%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.75
Team ratingContext
6.88
10.80
FoulsContext
9.50
12.20
Fouls sufferedContext
9.60
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
West Ham
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km524 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Fulham
Rest4.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km583 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| West Ham |
Fulham |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Premier League 2025-2026, 20 Dec | 4.8Premier League 2025-2026, 22 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 0 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 524 km | 583 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 5 | 1 / 2 / 5 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 3.2 | 5.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
West Ham
Confirmed XI
23A. Areola(G)
30O. Scarles
3M. Kilman
25J. Todibo
2K. Walker-Peters
18Mateus Fernandes
32F. Potts
27S. Magassa
7C. Summerville
10Lucas Paquetá
20J. Bowen
Fulham
Confirmed XI
1B. Leno(G)
33A. Robinson
15Jorge Cuenca
5J. Andersen
2K. Tete
16S. Berge
20S. Lukić
22Kevin
32E. Smith Rowe
8H. Wilson
7R. Jiménez
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences West Ham
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Fulham
Scores -0.05 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- West Ham+1.6 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Fulham-1.4 pp
Home / Away this season
West Ham · Home
0.75points per game · 8 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-6
- Scored
- 1.25
- Conceded
- 2.50
Fulham · Away
0.88points per game · 8 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-5
- Scored
- 1.13
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | West Ham | Fulham |
|---|---|---|
| Manchester City | L 0–3 A | L 4–5 H |
| Aston Villa | L 2–3 H | L 1–3 A |
| Brighton | D 1–1 A | D 1–1 A |
| Manchester United | D 1–1 A | D 1–1 H |
| Bournemouth | D 2–2 A | L 1–3 A |
| Burnley | W 3–2 H | W 3–2 A |
| Newcastle | W 3–1 H | L 1–2 A |
| Leeds | L 1–2 A | W 1–0 H |
| Brentford | L 0–2 H | W 3–1 H |
| Arsenal | L 0–2 A | L 0–1 H |
| Everton | D 1–1 A | L 0–2 A |
| Crystal Palace | L 1–2 H | L 1–2 H |
| Tottenham | L 0–3 H | W 2–1 A |
| Nottingham Forest | W 3–0 A | W 1–0 H |
| Chelsea | L 1–5 H | L 0–2 A |
| Sunderland | L 0–3 A | W 1–0 H |
| Points | 13 of 48 · 0.81 per game | 20 of 48 · 1.25 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
4 West Ham wins2 draws2 Fulham wins
Goals per game1.13 – 1.38
Over 2.538%
Both scored38%
Clean sheets38% · 38%
- 14 Jan 2025West Ham3–2Fulham
- 14 Sep 2024Fulham1–1West Ham
- 14 Apr 2024West Ham0–2Fulham
- 10 Dec 2023Fulham5–0West Ham
- 8 Apr 2023Fulham0–1West Ham
- 9 Oct 2022West Ham3–1Fulham
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| West Ham | Fulham | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.12 | 1.41 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.06 | 1.53 | |
| Match goals | 3.18 | 2.94 | 2.81 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 76% | |
| Over 2.5 | 65% | 53% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 29% | 29% | |
| Both teams scored | 59% | 59% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 6% | 24% | |
| Failed to score | 35% | 18% | |
| Games | 17 | 17 |
| West Ham | Fulham | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.30 | 1.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.90 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 3.20 | 3.10 | 2.81 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 60% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| West Ham | Fulham | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.56 | 4.88 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.50 | 5.29 | |
| Match total | 12.06 | 10.17 | 9.85 |
| Over 8.5 | 81% 13/16 | 71% 12/17 | |
| Over 9.5 | 75% 12/16 | 65% 11/17 | |
| Over 10.5 | 75% 12/16 | 41% 7/17 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.71 | 1.94 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.53 | 1.65 | |
| Match total | 3.24 | 3.59 | 3.87 |
| Over 3.5 | 41% 7/17 | 53% 9/17 | |
| Over 4.5 | 24% 4/17 | 41% 7/17 | |
| West Ham | Fulham | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.56 | 5.10 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.89 | 5.50 | |
| Match total | 11.45 | 10.60 | 9.85 |
| Over 8.5 | 78% 7/9 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 6/9 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 67% 6/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 3.60 | 3.50 | 3.87 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Chris Kavanagh 144 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.88league 3.72
Red cards0.13league 0.12
Cards 5+37%league 38%
Fouls21.9league 21.7
Penalties0.24league 0.20
Home wins40%league 48%
West Ham13 with this referee
Record4-4-5
Cards · opp.1.6 · 1.2
Pens for · against3 · 1
Reds1
- D16 Dec 24A · Bournemouth1–12
- W17 Dec 23H · Wolves3–03
- L24 Sep 23A · Liverpool1–32
- L26 Apr 23H · Liverpool1–20
- D12 Mar 23H · Aston Villa1–11
Fulham8 with this referee
Record2-3-3
Cards · opp.2.5 · 1.5
Pens for · against0 · 2
- D24 Aug 25H · Manchester United1–11
- W6 Apr 25H · Liverpool3–23
- W1 Feb 25A · Newcastle2–14
- D8 Dec 24H · Arsenal1–14
- L9 Oct 22A · West Ham1–33
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
West Ham17 games · scored 19 · conceded 35
3
6
0-15
1
2
16-30
4
6
31-45
1
7
46-60
2
7
61-75
8
7
76-90
Fulham17 games · scored 24 · conceded 26
5
0-15
5
16-30
6
5
31-45
4
9
46-60
5
61-75
4
7
76-90
West Ham10 games · scored 13 · conceded 19
2
5
0-15
1
16-30
4
3
31-45
3
46-60
1
2
61-75
5
6
76-90
Fulham10 games · scored 16 · conceded 15
4
0-15
4
16-30
4
3
31-45
3
4
46-60
3
61-75
2
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
