Wolves vs Brighton – 5 Oct 2025

Premier League Gameweek 7 Sun, Oct 5 · 14:00 Molineux Stadium, Wolverhampton, West Midlands

Wolves 20th · 1 pts · 6 played LLLLD

1–1Full time

Brighton 11th · 8 pts · 6 played LWLDW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Brighton were slight favourites.

Brighton were the stronger side on L90 Strength (75 vs 49). Wolves had 7.8 days of rest, Brighton 8 and had to travel 238 km.

Away travel238 kmRest days7.8 · 8Matches / 14d1 · 1

Wolves29%

Draw26%

Brighton46%

Expected goals 1.24 – 1.62

Wolves28%

Draw27%

Brighton45%

Expected goals 1.17 – 1.53

Wolves29%

Draw26%

Brighton46%

Expected goals 1.23 – 1.61

Wolves22%

Draw24%

Brighton53%

Expected goals 1.11 – 1.81

Wolves28%

Draw26%

Brighton45%

Expected goals 1.18 – 1.54

Over 2.5 54% Both score 58% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Wolverhampton, West Midlands)

No weather data yet

RefereeJarred Gillett

Cards per match 3.7
Penalties per match 0.21
Matches 90

Team strength

Wolves

Brighton

49 L90 StrengthIn forecast 75

44 Current StrengthIn forecast 83

41 AttackIn forecast 87

46 DefenceIn forecast 85

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Wolves

Attack—

Defense risk—

Brighton

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Wolves

Brighton

0.67 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.50

2.17 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50

0.93 xGVia Att/Def 1.74

1.43 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.45

-0.26 Goals minus xGContext -0.24

50% Scored inContext 83%

0% Clean sheetsContext 0%

10.00 ShotsContext 10.83

3.33 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.00

33% On target shareContext 37%

6.83 Shots in the boxContext 6.83

67% Box shareContext 65%

7% ConversionContext 14%

2.67 OffsidesContext 3.00

11.83 Shots allowedContext 11.17

3.83 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.17

4.00 BlocksContext 2.50

2.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 1.83

53% Save rateContext 58%

48% PossessionIn forecast 45%

412 PassesContext 371

330 Accurate passesContext 302

80% Pass accuracyContext 81%

6.66 Team ratingContext 6.77

13.83 FoulsContext 13.83

9.67 Fouls sufferedContext 12.33

2.00 Yellow cardsContext 3.00

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 6 and 6 games

0.70 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.90

2.10 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.30

0.95 xGVia Att/Def 1.70

1.35 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.54

-0.25 Goals minus xGContext +0.20

50% Scored inContext 90%

0% Clean sheetsContext 10%

10.60 ShotsContext 12.50

3.30 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.80

31% On target shareContext 38%

6.90 Shots in the boxContext 8.30

66% Box shareContext 66%

7% ConversionContext 15%

2.40 OffsidesContext 2.25

11.30 Shots allowedContext 11.20

4.40 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.40

3.00 BlocksContext 2.90

2.88 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.30

61% Save rateContext 68%

50% PossessionIn forecast 48%

431 PassesContext 396

355 Accurate passesContext 329

82% Pass accuracyContext 83%

6.75 Team ratingContext 6.92

11.60 FoulsContext 12.50

9.90 Fouls sufferedContext 11.20

1.70 Yellow cardsContext 2.20

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Wolves

Rest7.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km363 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Brighton

Rest8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel238 km143 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Wolves	Brighton
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7.8Premier League 2025-2026, 27 Sep	8Premier League 2025-2026, 27 Sep
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	238 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	363 km	143 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 3	0 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	13	13

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Wolves Confirmed XI

4-3-3

31S. Johnstone(G)

3Hugo Bueno 37L. Krejčí 4S. Bueno 38J. Tchatchoua

8João Gomes 7André 5M. Munetsi

11H. Hwang 9J. Strand Larsen 10J. Arias

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

Brighton Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1B. Verbruggen(G)

24F. Kadıoğlu 5L. Dunk 6J. van Hecke 27M. Wieffer

26Y. Ayari 17C. Baleba

11Y. Minteh 25D. Gómez 8B. Gruda

18D. Welbeck

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Wolves Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Brighton Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Wolves+0.2 pp
Draw-0.1 pp
Brighton-0.1 pp

Home / Away this season

Wolves · Home 0.00points per game · 3 home games

W-D-L: 0-0-3
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 3.33

Brighton · Away 1.00points per game · 3 away games

W-D-L: 1-0-2
Scored: 1.33
Conceded: 1.67

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 4 this season

Opponent	Wolves	Brighton
Tottenham	D 1–1 A	D 2–2 H
Everton	L 2–3 H	L 0–2 A
Bournemouth	L 0–1 A	L 1–2 A
Manchester City	L 0–4 H	W 2–1 H
Points	1 of 12 · 0.25 per game	4 of 12 · 1.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 11 meetings

3 Wolves wins2 draws5 Brighton wins

Goals per game0.90 – 2.10 Over 2.560% Both scored40% Clean sheets30% · 40%

10 May 2025Wolves0–2Brighton
26 Oct 2024Brighton2–2Wolves
28 Feb 2024Wolves1–0Brighton
22 Jan 2024Brighton0–0Wolves
19 Aug 2023Wolves1–4Brighton
29 Apr 2023Brighton6–0Wolves

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Wolves	Brighton	Forecast
Scored per game	0.67	1.50
Conceded per game	2.17	1.50
Match goals	2.83	3.00	2.86
Over 1.5	67%	100%
Over 2.5	50%	67%	54%
Over 3.5	50%	33%
Both teams scored	50%	83%	58%
Clean sheets	0%	0%
Failed to score	50%	17%
Games	6	6

	Wolves	Brighton	Forecast
Scored per game	0.67	1.50
Conceded per game	2.17	1.50
Match goals	2.83	3.00	2.86
Over 1.5	67%	100%
Over 2.5	50%	67%	54%
Over 3.5	50%	33%
Both teams scored	50%	83%	58%
Clean sheets	0%	0%
Failed to score	50%	17%
Games	6	6

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Wolves	Brighton	League
Corners
Corners won	4.40	3.67
Corners conceded	6.80	4.33
Match total	11.20	8.00	9.89
Over 8.5	80% 4/5	33% 2/6
Over 9.5	60% 3/5	33% 2/6
Over 10.5	60% 3/5	33% 2/6
Cards
Cards	2.17	3.00
Opponent cards	1.67	3.17
Match total	3.84	6.17	3.87
Over 3.5	50% 3/6	83% 5/6
Over 4.5	50% 3/6	67% 4/6

	Wolves	Brighton	League
Corners
Corners won	5.13	4.10
Corners conceded	5.63	4.20
Match total	10.76	8.30	9.89
Over 8.5	75% 6/8	40% 4/10
Over 9.5	63% 5/8	40% 4/10
Over 10.5	63% 5/8	40% 4/10
Cards
Cards	1.80	2.20
Opponent cards	1.30	2.40
Match total	3.10	4.60	3.87
Over 3.5	30% 3/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Jarred Gillett 90 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.60league 3.74

Red cards0.11league 0.14

Cards 5+36%league 42%

Fouls20.0league 22.0

Penalties0.21league 0.20

Home wins41%league 48%

Wolves6 with this referee

Record2-1-3 Cards · opp.2.3 · 2.7 Pens for · against1 · 0 Reds1

L16 Aug 25H · Manchester City0–41
L17 Aug 24A · Arsenal0–22
L1 Feb 24H · Manchester United3–42
W5 Dec 23H · Burnley1–02
W11 Feb 23A · Southampton2–14

Brighton4 with this referee

Record2-0-2 Cards · opp.1.8 · 1.5 Pens for · against2 · 1

L25 Apr 24H · Manchester City0–42
W28 Dec 23H · Tottenham4–23
W16 Sep 23A · Manchester United3–12
L26 Apr 23A · Nottingham Forest1–30

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.