Wolves
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Wolves
20th · 2 pts · 14 played
LLLLL
1–4Full time
Manchester United
12th · 22 pts · 14 played
DDLWD
Wolves23.7%fair odds 4.22
Draw24.2%fair odds 4.14
Manchester United52.1%fair odds 1.92
Expected goals1.16 – 1.81total 2.97
Likeliest score1–111.3%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Manchester United
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Wolves ↓ · Manchester United → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 8.7 | 8.4 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 5.4 | 11.3 | 9.8 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 6.2 | 5.6 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Wolves goals, columns Manchester United goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–111.3%8.82
- 1–29.8%10.25
- 0–18.7%11.45
- 0–28.4%11.86
- 2–16.2%16.06
- 1–35.9%16.97
- 0–05.7%17.53
- 2–25.6%17.72
- 1–05.4%18.63
- 0–35.1%19.63
Winning margin
2.9%
Wolves by 3+
fair 34.35
6.6%
Wolves by 2
fair 15.24
14.2%
Wolves by 1
fair 7.04
24.2%
Draw
fair 4.14
22.6%
Manchester United by 1
fair 4.43
16.1%
Manchester United by 2
fair 6.21
13.5%
Manchester United by 3+
fair 7.42
Goal distribution
Total goals
6%0
14%1
23%2
22%3
17%4
18%5+
Wolves goals
31%0
36%1
21%2
8%3
3%4+
Manchester United goals
16%0
30%1
27%2
16%3
11%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wolves win | 23.7% | 24.0% | -0.3 pp |
| Draw | 24.2% | 25.4% | -1.2 pp |
| Manchester United win | 52.1% | 50.6% | +1.5 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 57.0% | 52.4% | +4.6 pp |
| Both teams score | 57.9% | 54.6% | +3.3 pp |
| Expected goals Wolves | 1.16 | 1.09 | +0.07 |
| Expected goals Manchester United | 1.81 | 1.68 | +0.13 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Wolves win23.7%4.22
- Draw24.2%4.14
- Manchester United win52.1%1.92
- Double chance Wolves or draw47.9%2.09
- Double chance Wolves or Manchester United75.8%1.32
- Double chance Manchester United or draw76.3%1.31
- Draw no bet Wolves31.2%3.20
- Draw no bet Manchester United68.8%1.45
Goals
- Over 0.594.3%1.06
- Over 1.580.2%1.25
- Over 2.557.0%1.75
- Over 3.534.6%2.89
- Over 4.518.0%5.57
- Under 1.519.8%5.05
- Under 2.543.0%2.33
- Under 3.565.4%1.53
Both teams to score
- Yes57.9%1.73
- No42.1%2.38
- Yes and over 2.546.6%2.15
- Wolves win and yes13.0%7.66
- Draw and yes18.5%5.41
- Manchester United win and yes26.4%3.79
Team goals
- Wolves over 0.568.6%1.46
- Wolves over 1.532.2%3.11
- Wolves over 2.511.1%8.98
- Manchester United over 0.583.7%1.20
- Manchester United over 1.554.1%1.85
- Manchester United over 2.527.3%3.67
- Wolves clean sheet16.3%6.13
- Manchester United clean sheet31.4%3.18
- Wolves win to nil10.6%9.41
- Manchester United win to nil25.7%3.89
Handicap
- Wolves −1.59.5%10.55
- Wolves −2.52.9%34.35
- Manchester United +1.590.5%1.10
- Manchester United +2.597.1%1.03
- Manchester United −1.529.6%3.38
- Wolves +1.570.4%1.42
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Premier League 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored149
Favourite won55.0%
Avg chance given to result40.3%
1X2 Brier0.595
Over 2.5 called right56.4%
BTTS called right53.0%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 21 | 38.2% | 52.4% |
| 40–50% | 58 | 44.9% | 48.3% |
| 50–60% | 39 | 54.2% | 53.8% |
| 60–70% | 17 | 64.2% | 76.5% |
| 70–80% | 14 | 73.3% | 64.3% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 119 of 149 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5930 | 0.5793 |
| Avg chance given to result | 40.5% | 41.4% |
| Favourite won | 55.5% | 53.8% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 119 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 149 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.