Wolves vs Manchester United – 8 Dec 2025

Premier League Gameweek 15 Mon, Dec 8 · 20:00 Molineux Stadium, Wolverhampton, West Midlands

Wolves 20th · 2 pts · 14 played LLLLL

1–4Full time

Manchester United 12th · 22 pts · 14 played DDLWD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Manchester United were slight favourites.

Manchester United were the stronger side on L90 Strength (73 vs 41). Absences weigh more on Wolves. Wolves had 5 days of rest, Manchester United 4 and had to travel 100 km.

Away travel100 kmRest days5 · 4Matches / 14d2 · 3

Wolves24%

Draw24%

Manchester United52%

Expected goals 1.16 – 1.81

Wolves25%

Draw26%

Manchester United49%

Expected goals 1.10 – 1.63

Wolves25%

Draw25%

Manchester United51%

Expected goals 1.16 – 1.76

Wolves18%

Draw22%

Manchester United60%

Expected goals 1.03 – 2.03

Wolves24%

Draw25%

Manchester United51%

Expected goals 1.09 – 1.68

Over 2.5 57% Both score 58% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Wolverhampton, West Midlands)

No weather data yet

RefereeMichael Salisbury

Cards per match 3.8
Penalties per match 0.26
Matches 78

Team strength

Wolves

Manchester United

41 L90 StrengthIn forecast 73

44 Current StrengthIn forecast 77

41 AttackIn forecast 72

46 DefenceIn forecast 80

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Wolves

Attack—

Defense risk—

Manchester United

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Wolves

Manchester United

0.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.57

2.07 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50

0.92 xGVia Att/Def 1.65

1.37 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.40

-0.42 Goals minus xGContext -0.08

36% Scored inContext 79%

0% Clean sheetsContext 7%

9.07 ShotsContext 15.29

3.15 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.14

32% On target shareContext 34%

5.93 Shots in the boxContext 10.62

64% Box shareContext 66%

6% ConversionContext 10%

2.11 OffsidesContext 1.69

13.00 Shots allowedContext 11.07

4.64 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.79

4.31 BlocksContext 3.08

2.92 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.50

62% Save rateContext 59%

48% PossessionIn forecast 53%

406 PassesContext 460

329 Accurate passesContext 374

81% Pass accuracyContext 81%

6.65 Team ratingContext 6.91

14.36 FoulsContext 10.38

9.79 Fouls sufferedContext 12.00

2.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.36

0.07 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 14 and 14 games

0.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.80

2.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.40

1.02 xGVia Att/Def 1.48

1.20 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.27

-0.52 Goals minus xGContext +0.32

40% Scored inContext 90%

0% Clean sheetsContext 10%

9.20 ShotsContext 14.40

3.33 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.40

33% On target shareContext 38%

6.10 Shots in the boxContext 9.89

64% Box shareContext 64%

5% ConversionContext 13%

1.83 OffsidesContext 1.78

12.70 Shots allowedContext 11.40

4.90 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.70

4.22 BlocksContext 3.00

3.10 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.75

63% Save rateContext 63%

48% PossessionIn forecast 52%

412 PassesContext 456

337 Accurate passesContext 368

82% Pass accuracyContext 81%

6.67 Team ratingContext 6.95

14.00 FoulsContext 10.89

9.70 Fouls sufferedContext 12.00

1.90 Yellow cardsContext 1.60

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Wolves

Rest5 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km38 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Manchester United

Rest4 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel100 km524 km in 14d

Schedule load15%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Wolves	Manchester United
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 15
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	5Premier League 2025-2026, 3 Dec	4Premier League 2025-2026, 4 Dec
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	100 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	38 km	524 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 3	1 / 3 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	5	7

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Wolves Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

31S. Johnstone(G)

24Toti Gomes 12E. Agbadou 15Y. Mosquera

6D. Møller Wolfe 37L. Krejčí 7André 26K. Hoever

27J. Bellegarde 10J. Arias

9J. Strand Larsen

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Manchester United Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

31S. Lammens(G)

23L. Shaw 26A. Heaven 3N. Mazraoui

2Diogo Dalot 8Bruno Fernandes 18Casemiro 16A. Diallo

7Mason Mount 19B. Mbeumo

10Matheus Cunha

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Wolves Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Manchester United Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Wolves-1.0 pp
Draw-0.5 pp
Manchester United+1.4 pp

Home / Away this season

Wolves · Home 0.14points per game · 7 home games

W-D-L: 0-1-6
Scored: 0.86
Conceded: 2.43

Manchester United · Away 1.29points per game · 7 away games

W-D-L: 2-3-2
Scored: 1.43
Conceded: 1.86

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 10 this season

Opponent	Wolves	Manchester United
Nottingham Forest	L 0–1 H	D 2–2 A
Crystal Palace	L 0–2 H	W 2–1 A
Chelsea	L 0–3 A	W 2–1 H
Fulham	L 0–3 A	D 1–1 A
Burnley	L 2–3 H	W 3–2 H
Sunderland	L 0–2 A	W 2–0 H
Brighton	D 1–1 H	W 4–2 H
Tottenham	D 1–1 A	D 2–2 A
Everton	L 2–3 H	L 0–1 H
Manchester City	L 0–4 H	L 0–3 A
Points	2 of 30 · 0.20 per game	18 of 30 · 1.80 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings

3 Wolves wins0 draws7 Manchester United wins

Goals per game0.80 – 1.20 Over 2.520% Both scored20% Clean sheets30% · 50%

20 Apr 2025Manchester United0–1Wolves
26 Dec 2024Wolves2–0Manchester United
1 Feb 2024Wolves3–4Manchester United
14 Aug 2023Manchester United1–0Wolves
13 May 2023Manchester United2–0Wolves
31 Dec 2022Wolves0–1Manchester United

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Wolves	Manchester United	Forecast
Scored per game	0.50	1.57
Conceded per game	2.07	1.50
Match goals	2.57	3.07	2.97
Over 1.5	71%	86%
Over 2.5	43%	64%	57%
Over 3.5	29%	36%
Both teams scored	36%	71%	58%
Clean sheets	0%	7%
Failed to score	64%	21%
Games	14	14

	Wolves	Manchester United	Forecast
Scored per game	0.50	1.80
Conceded per game	2.00	1.40
Match goals	2.50	3.20	2.97
Over 1.5	80%	90%
Over 2.5	40%	70%	57%
Over 3.5	20%	40%
Both teams scored	40%	80%	58%
Clean sheets	0%	10%
Failed to score	60%	10%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Wolves	Manchester United	League
Corners
Corners won	3.00	4.36
Corners conceded	6.69	4.79
Match total	9.69	9.15	10.01
Over 8.5	69% 9/13	43% 6/14
Over 9.5	62% 8/13	43% 6/14
Over 10.5	46% 6/13	29% 4/14
Cards
Cards	2.14	1.43
Opponent cards	1.50	2.57
Match total	3.64	4.00	3.78
Over 3.5	57% 8/14	64% 9/14
Over 4.5	43% 6/14	43% 6/14

	Wolves	Manchester United	League
Corners
Corners won	2.89	4.10
Corners conceded	7.00	5.10
Match total	9.89	9.20	10.01
Over 8.5	67% 6/9	50% 5/10
Over 9.5	67% 6/9	50% 5/10
Over 10.5	44% 4/9	30% 3/10
Cards
Cards	2.00	1.70
Opponent cards	1.50	2.60
Match total	3.50	4.30	3.78
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Michael Salisbury 78 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.56league 3.65

Red cards0.22league 0.12

Cards 5+36%league 40%

Fouls22.3league 22.0

Penalties0.26league 0.20

Home wins50%league 49%

Wolves6 with this referee

Record2-1-3 Cards · opp.2.8 · 3.3 Pens for · against2 · 2 Reds2

D27 Sep 25A · Tottenham1–12
W22 Feb 25A · Bournemouth1–03
L27 Nov 23A · Fulham2–32
L18 Mar 23H · Leeds2–45
L18 Feb 23H · Bournemouth0–13

Manchester United2 with this referee

Record2-0-0 Cards · opp.0.0 · 2.0 Pens for · against1 · 0

W24 Apr 24H · Sheffield Utd4–20
W3 Jan 23H · Bournemouth3–00

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.