Wolves vs Nottingham Forest – 3 Dec 2025

Premier League Gameweek 14 Wed, Dec 3 · 19:30 Molineux Stadium, Wolverhampton, West Midlands

Wolves 20th · 2 pts · 13 played LLLLL

0–1Full time

Nottingham Forest 16th · 12 pts · 13 played LDWWL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Nottingham Forest were slight favourites.

Nottingham Forest were the stronger side on L90 Strength (65 vs 42). Absences weigh more on Nottingham Forest. Wolves had 3.2 days of rest, Nottingham Forest 3.2 and had to travel 77 km.

Away travel77 kmRest days3.2 · 3.2Matches / 14d2 · 3

Wolves32%

Draw26%

Nottingham Forest43%

Expected goals 1.33 – 1.58

Wolves31%

Draw27%

Nottingham Forest43%

Expected goals 1.21 – 1.47

Wolves31%

Draw26%

Nottingham Forest43%

Expected goals 1.28 – 1.56

Wolves25%

Draw25%

Nottingham Forest50%

Expected goals 1.18 – 1.77

Wolves31%

Draw27%

Nottingham Forest42%

Expected goals 1.26 – 1.49

Over 2.5 55% Both score 59% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Wolverhampton, West Midlands)

No weather data yet

RefereeTim Robinson

Cards per match 4.6
Penalties per match 0.16
Matches 116

Team strength

Wolves

Nottingham Forest

42 L90 StrengthIn forecast 65

44 Current StrengthIn forecast 70

41 AttackIn forecast 68

46 DefenceIn forecast 74

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Wolves

Attack—

Defense risk—

Nottingham Forest

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Wolves

Nottingham Forest

0.54 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00

2.15 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.69

0.92 xGVia Att/Def 1.26

1.42 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.60

-0.38 Goals minus xGContext -0.26

38% Scored inContext 46%

0% Clean sheetsContext 8%

9.38 ShotsContext 12.69

3.33 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.08

33% On target shareContext 32%

6.08 Shots in the boxContext 8.31

63% Box shareContext 66%

6% ConversionContext 8%

2.13 OffsidesContext 1.78

13.23 Shots allowedContext 14.08

4.77 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.23

4.33 BlocksContext 4.55

3.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.31

62% Save rateContext 63%

47% PossessionIn forecast 50%

406 PassesContext 446

329 Accurate passesContext 373

81% Pass accuracyContext 84%

6.65 Team ratingContext 6.79

14.00 FoulsContext 11.23

9.69 Fouls sufferedContext 11.58

2.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.54

0.08 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 13 and 13 games

0.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.30

2.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20

0.98 xGVia Att/Def 1.54

1.28 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.21

-0.48 Goals minus xGContext -0.24

40% Scored inContext 50%

0% Clean sheetsContext 40%

9.50 ShotsContext 12.80

3.56 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.30

34% On target shareContext 34%

6.40 Shots in the boxContext 8.10

65% Box shareContext 64%

5% ConversionContext 10%

1.80 OffsidesContext 1.71

13.30 Shots allowedContext 12.60

5.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.50

4.33 BlocksContext 5.25

3.20 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.90

64% Save rateContext 64%

48% PossessionIn forecast 49%

405 PassesContext 433

330 Accurate passesContext 357

82% Pass accuracyContext 83%

6.68 Team ratingContext 6.93

13.80 FoulsContext 12.10

9.60 Fouls sufferedContext 13.67

2.10 Yellow cardsContext 1.70

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Wolves

Rest3.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km38 km in 14d

Schedule load8%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Nottingham Forest

Rest3.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel77 km264 km in 14d

Schedule load23%Moderate

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Wolves	Nottingham Forest
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 8	Moderate · 23
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	3.2Premier League 2025-2026, 30 Nov	3.2Premier League 2025-2026, 30 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	77 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	38 km	264 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 3	2 / 3 / 5
Next matchdays after this one	5	2.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Wolves Confirmed XI

3-4-3

31S. Johnstone(G)

24Toti Gomes 12E. Agbadou 15Y. Mosquera

6D. Møller Wolfe 8João Gomes 7André 38J. Tchatchoua

27J. Bellegarde 9J. Strand Larsen 10J. Arias

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Nottingham Forest Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

26M. Sels(G)

3N. Williams 4Morato 31N. Milenković 37N. Savona

8E. Anderson 6I. Sangaré

14D. Ndoye 10M. Gibbs-White 21O. Hutchinson

19Igor Jesus

+8 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Wolves Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Nottingham Forest Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Wolves+1.0 pp
Draw-0.3 pp
Nottingham Forest-0.7 pp

Home / Away this season

Wolves · Home 0.17points per game · 6 home games

W-D-L: 0-1-5
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 2.67

Nottingham Forest · Away 0.83points per game · 6 away games

W-D-L: 1-2-3
Scored: 0.83
Conceded: 1.50

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 8 this season

Opponent	Wolves	Nottingham Forest
Crystal Palace	L 0–2 H	D 1–1 A
Chelsea	L 0–3 A	L 0–3 H
Burnley	L 2–3 H	D 1–1 A
Sunderland	L 0–2 A	L 0–1 H
Brighton	D 1–1 H	L 0–2 H
Leeds	L 1–3 H	W 3–1 H
Newcastle	L 0–1 A	L 0–2 A
Bournemouth	L 0–1 A	L 0–2 A
Points	1 of 24 · 0.13 per game	5 of 24 · 0.63 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings

1 Wolves wins4 draws1 Nottingham Forest wins

Goals per game1.00 – 1.33 Over 2.533% Both scored67% Clean sheets17% · 17%

6 Jan 2025Wolves0–3Nottingham Forest
31 Aug 2024Nottingham Forest1–1Wolves
13 Apr 2024Nottingham Forest2–2Wolves
9 Dec 2023Wolves1–1Nottingham Forest
1 Apr 2023Nottingham Forest1–1Wolves
15 Oct 2022Wolves1–0Nottingham Forest

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Wolves	Nottingham Forest	Forecast
Scored per game	0.54	1.00
Conceded per game	2.15	1.69
Match goals	2.69	2.69	2.90
Over 1.5	77%	92%
Over 2.5	46%	54%	55%
Over 3.5	31%	23%
Both teams scored	38%	38%	59%
Clean sheets	0%	8%
Failed to score	62%	54%
Games	13	13

	Wolves	Nottingham Forest	Forecast
Scored per game	0.50	1.30
Conceded per game	2.00	1.20
Match goals	2.50	2.50	2.90
Over 1.5	80%	90%
Over 2.5	40%	50%	55%
Over 3.5	20%	20%
Both teams scored	40%	20%	59%
Clean sheets	0%	40%
Failed to score	60%	50%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Wolves	Nottingham Forest	League
Corners
Corners won	3.00	5.46
Corners conceded	6.50	4.92
Match total	9.50	10.38	9.93
Over 8.5	67% 8/12	85% 11/13
Over 9.5	58% 7/12	69% 9/13
Over 10.5	42% 5/12	46% 6/13
Cards
Cards	2.15	1.54
Opponent cards	1.46	1.62
Match total	3.61	3.16	3.83
Over 3.5	54% 7/13	38% 5/13
Over 4.5	46% 6/13	23% 3/13

	Wolves	Nottingham Forest	League
Corners
Corners won	3.00	5.25
Corners conceded	7.00	5.38
Match total	10.00	10.63	9.93
Over 8.5	67% 6/9	88% 7/8
Over 9.5	67% 6/9	75% 6/8
Over 10.5	44% 4/9	50% 4/8
Cards
Cards	2.20	1.70
Opponent cards	1.40	1.60
Match total	3.60	3.30	3.83
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Tim Robinson 116 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.44league 3.71

Red cards0.16league 0.12

Cards 5+43%league 41%

Fouls22.7league 22.1

Penalties0.16league 0.20

Home wins48%league 50%

Wolves5 with this referee

Record3-0-2 Cards · opp.2.8 · 2.0 Pens for · against1 · 0

L21 Sep 24A · Aston Villa1–36
L2 Mar 24A · Newcastle0–31
W4 Feb 24A · Chelsea4–22
W11 Nov 23H · Tottenham2–14
W4 Mar 23H · Tottenham1–01

Nottingham Forest6 with this referee

Record5-1-0 Cards · opp.2.3 · 3.8 Pens for · against0 · 1

W21 Oct 24H · Crystal Palace1–02
W30 Dec 23H · Manchester United2–12
W2 Sep 23A · Chelsea1–04
W6 Apr 22H · Coventry2–03
W22 Jan 22H · Derby2–12

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.