Nacional

16th · Primeira Liga · 4 points · Matches played: 8

20 points behind FC Porto · Table & Fixtures →

L90 Strength L90 Strength is LOAD90’s own club strength rating on a fixed 0–100 scale, built from its Elo rating. League Strength uses the mean Elo of a league's clubs and a separate league calibration, so the two scores are not directly comparable.

-3.4 is current form. We look at the goals the team scores and concedes and at the quality of its chances (expected goals, xG) over recent matches. If attack and defence are playing above what the Elo rating predicts, L90 Strength goes up for the forecast; if below, it goes down.

Base L90 Strength changed -6.1 over the last 5 matches; that is already inside the number. 17.1-3.4
World Rank 427th Global, by Elo
Primeira Liga Rank 17th L90 Strength
Last Rio AveA xG 1.3–1.7 2–3 Next SC BragaH 19%

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Upcoming fixtures

Nacional · All competitions

Forecast
SC BragaPrimeira Liga 2026-2027 · Home 19% win 0.80 xPts AroucaPrimeira Liga 2026-2027 · Away 17% win 0.74 xPts Academico ViseuPrimeira Liga 2026-2027 · Home 31% win 1.19 xPts MaritimoPrimeira Liga 2026-2027 · Away — win — xPts BenficaPrimeira Liga 2026-2027 · Home — win — xPts Casa PiaPrimeira Liga 2026-2027 · Away — win — xPts MoreirensePrimeira Liga 2026-2027 · Home — win — xPts FC PortoPrimeira Liga 2026-2027 · Away — win — xPts GIL VicentePrimeira Liga 2026-2027 · Home — win — xPts Santa ClaraPrimeira Liga 2026-2027 · Home — win — xPts EstorilPrimeira Liga 2026-2027 · Away — win — xPts GuimaraesPrimeira Liga 2026-2027 · Home — win — xPts EstrelaPrimeira Liga 2026-2027 · Away — win — xPts Sporting CPPrimeira Liga 2026-2027 · Home — win — xPts AlvercaPrimeira Liga 2026-2027 · Away — win — xPts FamalicaoPrimeira Liga 2026-2027 · Away — win — xPts Rio AvePrimeira Liga 2026-2027 · Home — win — xPts SC BragaPrimeira Liga 2026-2027 · Away — win — xPts AroucaPrimeira Liga 2026-2027 · Home — win — xPts Academico ViseuPrimeira Liga 2026-2027 · Away — win — xPts MaritimoPrimeira Liga 2026-2027 · Home — win — xPts BenficaPrimeira Liga 2026-2027 · Away — win — xPts Casa PiaPrimeira Liga 2026-2027 · Home — win — xPts MoreirensePrimeira Liga 2026-2027 · Away — win — xPts FC PortoPrimeira Liga 2026-2027 · Home — win — xPts GIL VicentePrimeira Liga 2026-2027 · Away — win — xPts

xPts = 3 × win probability + draw probability. — means no published forecast. Open a match for xG and the full forecast.

Results

Nacional · All competitions

Full time
Rio AvePrimeira Liga 2026-2027 · Away L 2–3 1.3–1.7 xG -1.0 Δpts FamalicaoPrimeira Liga 2026-2027 · Home L 0–4 — xG -1.1 Δpts AlvercaPrimeira Liga 2026-2027 · Home L 1–3 — xG -1.4 Δpts Sporting CPPrimeira Liga 2026-2027 · Away L 0–2 — xG -0.2 Δpts EstrelaPrimeira Liga 2026-2027 · Home L 2–3 0.8–2.1 xG -1.6 Δpts GuimaraesPrimeira Liga 2026-2027 · Away L 0–1 0.4–3.1 xG -1.0 Δpts EstorilPrimeira Liga 2026-2027 · Home W 2–0 2.0–0.9 xG +1.6 Δpts Santa ClaraPrimeira Liga 2026-2027 · Away D 2–2 1.2–1.7 xG +0.0 Δpts

Score and actual xG show Nacional first. Δpts = points taken − pre-match xPts. — means data unavailable.

Current load Low · 0

Rest profile14.1 days since last match
0%
Schedule load0 matches in last 14 days
0%
Travel loadHome match, 0 km in 14 days
0%
Squad availabilityFull squad available
0%

Load before the next match, vs SC Braga, 25 Oct. Squad availability is shown separately and is not part of the score; availability is the share of squad weight missing, the same input the forecast uses for absences.

Schedule difficulty all competitions

Each bar is one match: 50% match difficulty from current relative Elo strength + 50% calendar load (rest, match congestion and travel). Higher means harder, on a 0–100 scale. This is a descriptive index, not a win probability. Lighter bars are upcoming; the dashed line marks today. Grey marks missing data. 10 Aug at Santa Clara: Schedule difficulty 41/100; match difficulty 69/100
D
 Aug 16 Aug vs Estoril: Schedule difficulty 31/100; match difficulty 56/100
W
 23 Aug at Guimaraes: Schedule difficulty 40/100; match difficulty 63/100
L
 30 Aug vs Estrela: Schedule difficulty 29/100; match difficulty 53/100
L
 5 Sep at Sporting CP: Schedule difficulty 56/100; match difficulty 94/100
L
 Sep 12 Sep vs Alverca: Schedule difficulty 36/100; match difficulty 66/100
L
 19 Sep vs Famalicao: Schedule difficulty 39/100; match difficulty 72/100
L
 11 Oct at Rio Ave: Schedule difficulty 34/100; match difficulty 55/100
L
 Oct 25 Oct vs SC Braga: Schedule difficulty 42/100; match difficulty 83/100 1 Nov at Arouca: Schedule difficulty 41/100; match difficulty 69/100 Nov 7 Nov vs Academico Viseu: Schedule difficulty 36/100; match difficulty 67/100 27 Nov at Maritimo: Schedule difficulty 24/100; match difficulty 47/100 6 Dec vs Benfica: Schedule difficulty 47/100; match difficulty 94/100 Dec 13 Dec at Casa Pia: Schedule difficulty 26/100; match difficulty 52/100 20 Dec vs Moreirense: Schedule difficulty 31/100; match difficulty 61/100 27 Dec at FC Porto: Schedule difficulty 53/100; match difficulty 93/100 10 Jan vs GIL Vicente: Schedule difficulty 37/100; match difficulty 68/100 Jan 17 Jan vs Santa Clara: Schedule difficulty 35/100; match difficulty 69/100 24 Jan at Estoril: Schedule difficulty 34/100; match difficulty 56/100 31 Jan vs Guimaraes: Schedule difficulty 34/100; match difficulty 63/100 7 Feb at Estrela: Schedule difficulty 35/100; match difficulty 53/100 Feb 14 Feb vs Sporting CP: Schedule difficulty 50/100; match difficulty 94/100 21 Feb at Alverca: Schedule difficulty 42/100; match difficulty 66/100 28 Feb at Famalicao: Schedule difficulty 45/100; match difficulty 72/100 7 Mar vs Rio Ave: Schedule difficulty 33/100; match difficulty 55/100 Mar 14 Mar at SC Braga: Schedule difficulty 50/100; match difficulty 83/100 21 Mar vs Arouca: Schedule difficulty 37/100; match difficulty 69/100 4 Apr at Academico Viseu: Schedule difficulty 40/100; match difficulty 67/100 Apr 11 Apr vs Maritimo: Schedule difficulty 26/100; match difficulty 47/100 18 Apr at Benfica: Schedule difficulty 56/100; match difficulty 94/100 25 Apr vs Casa Pia: Schedule difficulty 29/100; match difficulty 52/100 2 May at Moreirense: Schedule difficulty 39/100; match difficulty 61/100 May 9 May vs FC Porto: Schedule difficulty 49/100; match difficulty 93/100 16 May at GIL Vicente: Schedule difficulty 43/100; match difficulty 68/100

Schedule next 30 days · forecast and load

All fixtures and load →
Rest14.1 daysbefore BRA
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel / 14d0 kmaway trips
Schedule load0%Low
vs SC BragaSun 25 Oct, 18:00 Primeira Liga 2026-2027 · opponent L90 Strength 56 19%win23%draw58%loss Low load · 14.1 d rest at AroucaSun 1 Nov, 15:30 Primeira Liga 2026-2027 · opponent L90 Strength 34 17%win22%draw61%loss Low load · 6.9 d rest vs Academico ViseuSat 7 Nov, 15:30 Primeira Liga 2026-2027 · opponent L90 Strength 32 31%win26%draw43%loss Low load · 6 d rest
Win · draw · loss: LOAD90 forecastLoad bar: rest, matches and travel before each game (context; only 4+ matches in 14 days changes the forecast)
Full match preview oneScored → vs SC Braga, 25 OctOdds, value, live score

Fixture Swing

Opponent opportunity across the next 3 matches · all competitions

2 of 3 forecasts available · Partial window

Attack Swing−6%

Baseline 2.18 → Forecast 2.04 expected goals · 2 included matches

Conceding Swing+4%

Baseline 3.83 → Forecast 4.00 expected goals conceded · 2 included matches

Opportunity for the next 3 matches
MatchAttackConceding riskGoals · Baseline → Forecast
vs SC Braga25 Oct · Primeira Liga 2026-2027 −14% +15% 1.21 → 1.04
at Arouca1 Nov · Primeira Liga 2026-2027 +4% −4% 0.97 → 1.00
vs Academico Viseu7 Nov · Primeira Liga 2026-2027 — — Opportunity unavailable

Swing compares total forecast goals with total baseline goals for the included matches. Forecasts are available up to 21 days ahead. Missing snapshots and different model revisions are excluded; a partial window covers only the matches shown with values. Your team's own conditions are kept in each baseline.

Next match · Match Opportunity

Nacional

Baseline: average Primeira Liga opponent

Attack Downlift −14% Expected goals Baseline1.21Forecast1.04
Conceding Risk +15% Expected goals conceded Baseline1.70Forecast1.95
Clean Sheet −4.1 pp Chance of conceding no goals Baseline18.2%Forecast14.2%