Nacional
Attack−14%
Defense risk+15%
Our take
SC Braga are slight favourites.
SC Braga are the stronger side on L90 Strength (56 vs 17). Nacional have 14.1 days of rest, SC Braga 5.9 and have to travel 1,239 km. Conditions look neutral.
Away travel1,239 kmRest days14.1 · 5.9Matches / 14d0 · 1
Nacional19%
Draw23%
SC Braga58%
Nacional20%
Draw24%
SC Braga56%
Nacional19%
Draw23%
SC Braga58%
Nacional14%
Draw20%
SC Braga66%
Nacional20%
Draw23%
SC Braga58%
Over 2.5 58%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 1–1
EloLambda forecast, updated 55 minutes ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Ilha da Madeira)
14°CPartly cloudy
- Precipitation 0%
- Wind 7 km/h
- Humidity 72%
Referee—Not appointed yet
Key insights
Automatic descriptive highlights for Nacional and SC Braga. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.
Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.
xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.
Headlines
-
Trend
SC Braga
63%
Both teams scored
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored -
Insight
SC Braga
3
Clean sheets
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet -
Insight
Nacional
−0.71
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.05xG against1.76
-
Alert
Nacional
2.3
Goals conceded per match
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Streak
Nacional
6
Losses in a row
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Losses in a row
Defence
-
Insight
SC Braga
3
Clean sheets
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet -
Alert
Nacional
2.3
Goals conceded per match
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Insight
Nacional
−0.71
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.05xG against1.76
Team strength
NacionalSC Braga
17
L90 StrengthIn forecast
56
17
Current StrengthIn forecast
56
15
AttackIn forecast
42
13
DefenceIn forecast
59
5
Form indexContext
19
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisSC Braga
Attack+41%
Defense risk−20%
Changes versus each team's league-average baseline. Higher attack and lower defense risk are favorable.
Playing style
NacionalSC Braga
1.13
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.13
2.25
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.25
1.16
xGVia Att/Def
1.06
1.92
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.74
-0.03
Goals minus xGContext
+0.07
63%
Scored inContext
88%
13%
Clean sheetsContext
38%
11.00
ShotsContext
13.00
3.57
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.38
28%
On target shareContext
34%
7.29
Shots in the boxContext
8.13
60%
Box shareContext
63%
10%
ConversionContext
9%
1.50
OffsidesContext
2.57
14.63
Shots allowedContext
8.63
6.25
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.63
3.14
BlocksContext
2.43
3.63
Goalkeeper savesContext
1.63
58%
Save rateContext
62%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
59%
406
PassesContext
572
334
Accurate passesContext
491
82%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.61
Team ratingContext
6.66
11.13
FoulsContext
13.25
12.25
Fouls sufferedContext
12.38
1.25
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
2.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.05
xGVia Att/Def
1.14
1.76
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.06
+0.05
Goals minus xGContext
+0.16
60%
Scored inContext
90%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
10.50
ShotsContext
12.30
3.22
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.10
28%
On target shareContext
33%
6.78
Shots in the boxContext
7.40
60%
Box shareContext
59%
11%
ConversionContext
11%
1.43
OffsidesContext
2.22
14.20
Shots allowedContext
9.90
5.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.30
3.22
BlocksContext
3.13
3.78
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.10
63%
Save rateContext
64%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
59%
390
PassesContext
569
317
Accurate passesContext
490
81%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.61
Team ratingContext
6.68
12.20
FoulsContext
13.00
11.90
Fouls sufferedContext
11.40
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
2.10
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Nacional
LLLLL
Rest14.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 5 · 0 pts vs 8.3 for an average club · -5.4 vs expected
SC Braga
LWDLL
Rest5.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel1,239 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load12%Low
Form 19 · 4 pts vs 8.1 for an average club · -4.5 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Nacional |
SC Braga |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 12 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 14.1Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 11 Oct | 5.9Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 19 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 1,239 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 1 | 1 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.9 | 7.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Nacional
Last XI · not confirmed
1R. Bellucci(G)
21W. Kokolo
38Zé Vitor
33Francisco Gonçalves
88Deivison
31D. Dongmo
15C. Labidi
12M. Song
20M. Djaló
10Daniel Júnior
29N. Kader
SC Braga
Last XI · not confirmed
31Bernardo Fontes(G)
44A. Bajrami
6Vitor Carvalho
14G. Lagerbielke
10Pau Víctor
29J. Gorby
8João Moutinho
7Diogo Travassos
50D. Rodrigues
21Ricardo Horta
19J. Wind
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Nacional
No reported absences
SC Braga
No reported absences
Total impact vs full squads
- Nacional+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- SC Braga+0.0 pp
From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.
Home / Away this season
Nacional · Home
0.75points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-3
- Scored
- 1.25
- Conceded
- 2.50
SC Braga · Away
1.25points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-2-1
- Scored
- 1.25
- Conceded
- 1.25
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 6 this season
| Opponent | Nacional | SC Braga |
|---|---|---|
| Alverca | L 1–3 H | W 2–1 A |
| Sporting CP | L 0–2 A | L 1–3 H |
| Estrela | L 2–3 H | L 1–2 A |
| Guimaraes | L 0–1 A | W 1–0 H |
| Estoril | W 2–0 H | W 1–0 H |
| Santa Clara | D 2–2 A | D 0–0 A |
| Points | 4 of 18 · 0.67 per game | 10 of 18 · 1.67 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
1 Nacional wins0 draws3 SC Braga wins
Goals per game0.50 – 1.50
Over 2.550%
Both scored25%
Clean sheets25% · 50%
- 28 Feb 2026Nacional1–2SC Braga
- 28 Sep 2025SC Braga0–1Nacional
- 21 Feb 2025SC Braga1–0Nacional
- 20 Sep 2024Nacional0–3SC Braga
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Nacional | SC Braga | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.13 | 1.13 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.25 | 1.25 | |
| Match goals | 3.38 | 2.38 | 2.99 |
| Over 1.5 | 88% | 63% | |
| Over 2.5 | 63% | 63% | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | 63% | 25% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 63% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 13% | 38% | |
| Failed to score | 38% | 13% | |
| Games | 8 | 8 |
| Nacional | SC Braga | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.10 | 1.30 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 3.10 | 2.70 | 2.99 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 70% | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 70% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Nacional | SC Braga | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.50 | 4.25 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.33 | 2.88 | |
| Match total | 9.83 | 7.13 | 8.91 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 3/6 | 25% 2/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 3/6 | 25% 2/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 2/6 | 25% 2/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.38 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.63 | 2.75 | |
| Match total | 4.01 | 4.75 | 4.55 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 4/8 | 75% 6/8 | |
| Over 4.5 | 25% 2/8 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Nacional | SC Braga | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.13 | 4.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.50 | 3.20 | |
| Match total | 9.63 | 7.40 | 8.91 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 4/8 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 4/8 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 25% 2/8 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.70 | 2.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.50 | 2.80 | |
| Match total | 4.20 | 4.90 | 4.55 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
Nacional8 games · scored 9 · conceded 18
1
3
0-15
2
16-30
3
7
31-45
1
2
46-60
2
3
61-75
2
1
76-90
SC Braga7 games · scored 8 · conceded 10
2
1
0-15
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
2
2
46-60
1
3
61-75
1
2
76-90
Nacional10 games · scored 11 · conceded 20
1
3
0-15
3
16-30
3
7
31-45
1
2
46-60
3
3
61-75
3
2
76-90
SC Braga9 games · scored 12 · conceded 14
3
2
0-15
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
3
3
46-60
1
3
61-75
3
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
