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Premier League · 4 signals · 3 clubs in this view
BrightonWinning, and exceeding expectationsInsight Score68/100
A winning run and points above forecast expectations stand out together. Separate the recorded results from the chance balance; the points comparison covers a different set of league matches.
- Wins in a rowLast 7 recorded matches · 2026-08-23 → 2026-10-18 UTC
Recorded scores · all competitions - 4
- Points minus expected7/7 current-league matches · 2026-08-23 → 2026-10-18 UTC
Stored LOAD90 forecasts · same covered games - +4.6
- Goals scored / matchLast 7 recorded matches · 2026-08-23 → 2026-10-18 UTC
Recorded scores · all competitions - 3.3
- Observed xG difference / match10-match profile · exact dates unavailable
Observed match xG · available averages - +0.74
Sources, limitations & score
- Deviation
- 62.8
- Recency
- 64.3
- Context
- 100.0
- Quality
- 51.7
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
- Wins in a row — A run of 10 is a lower bound. Related result sequences share one evidence family.
- Points minus expected — Points 16; xPts 11.4. Saved pre: 2; reconstructed: 5. No claim that the gap must reverse. This window differs from the recorded-results and xG windows.
- Goals scored / match — Premier League 2026-2027: 1.45 goals per team/match, 70 matches · 2026-08-21 → 2026-10-19 UTC. Reference only: the club window spans all recorded competitions; no opponent adjustment.
- Observed xG difference / match — Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 2.01; xG against 1.27. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.
ArsenalWinning, and exceeding expectationsInsight Score67/100
A winning run and points above forecast expectations stand out together. Separate the recorded results from the chance balance; the points comparison covers a different set of league matches.
- Wins in a rowLast 9 recorded matches · 2026-08-21 → 2026-10-18 UTC
Recorded scores · all competitions - 3
- Points minus expected9/9 current-league matches · 2026-08-21 → 2026-10-18 UTC
Stored LOAD90 forecasts · same covered games - +5.0
- Goals scored / matchLast 9 recorded matches · 2026-08-21 → 2026-10-18 UTC
Recorded scores · all competitions - 1.7
- Observed xG difference / match10-match profile · exact dates unavailable
Observed match xG · available averages - +0.71
Sources, limitations & score
- Deviation
- 53.6
- Recency
- 64.3
- Context
- 100.0
- Quality
- 63.3
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
- Wins in a row — A run of 10 is a lower bound. Related result sequences share one evidence family.
- Points minus expected — Points 24; xPts 19. Saved pre: 3; reconstructed: 6. No claim that the gap must reverse. This window differs from the recorded-results and xG windows.
- Goals scored / match — Premier League 2026-2027: 1.45 goals per team/match, 70 matches · 2026-08-21 → 2026-10-19 UTC. Reference only: the club window spans all recorded competitions; no opponent adjustment.
- Observed xG difference / match — Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 1.56; xG against 0.85. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.
Each signal belongs to one category. Categories sum to All signals; stories combine related evidence across categories.
Streaks4 signals · 3 clubs
Select a row to explore the evidence. Scroll to see all columns →
Brighton
Wins in a row
4
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Streak58
Consecutive wins start with the latest recorded result. A draw or defeat ends the run within the available window.
Recorded scores · all competitions · Last 7 recorded matches · 2026-08-23 → 2026-10-18 UTC. A run of 10 is a lower bound. Related result sequences share one evidence family.
- Deviation
- 35.0
- Recency
- 96.5
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 70.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Oldest → newest · scores from Brighton’s perspective. Event: Wins in a row.
| Date (UTC) | Opponent | GF–GA | Event |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-23 | Aston VillaH | 4–0W | Yes |
| 2026-08-30 | ChelseaA | 3–4L | No |
| 2026-09-05 | LeedsH | 1–1D | No |
| 2026-09-13 | CoventryA | 5–0W | Yes |
| 2026-09-19 | ArsenalH | 3–0W | Yes |
| 2026-10-10 | SunderlandA | 2–0W | Yes |
| 2026-10-18 | Crystal PalaceH | 5–0W | Yes |
Consecutive known results, starting with the latest recorded match. Missing or special results are excluded. A 10+ streak is a lower bound within this window.
Full club analysis →
Arsenal
Wins in a row
3
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Streak60
Consecutive wins start with the latest recorded result. A draw or defeat ends the run within the available window.
Recorded scores · all competitions · Last 9 recorded matches · 2026-08-21 → 2026-10-18 UTC. A run of 10 is a lower bound. Related result sequences share one evidence family.
- Deviation
- 28.9
- Recency
- 96.5
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 90.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Oldest → newest · scores from Arsenal’s perspective. Event: Wins in a row.
| Date (UTC) | Opponent | GF–GA | Event |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-21 | CoventryH | 3–0W | Yes |
| 2026-08-31 | Aston VillaA | 1–0W | Yes |
| 2026-09-06 | ChelseaH | 2–1W | Yes |
| 2026-09-09 | NapoliA | 1–0W | Yes |
| 2026-09-12 | SunderlandA | 2–0W | Yes |
| 2026-09-19 | BrightonA | 0–3L | No |
| 2026-10-10 | LeedsH | 2–1W | Yes |
| 2026-10-13 | LilleH | 3–0W | Yes |
| 2026-10-18 | Nottingham ForestA | 1–0W | Yes |
Consecutive known results, starting with the latest recorded match. Missing or special results are excluded. A 10+ streak is a lower bound within this window.
Full club analysis →
Nottingham Forest
Losses in a row
3
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Streak55
Consecutive defeats start with the latest recorded result. The sequence describes the results, without claiming a cause.
Recorded scores · all competitions · Last 7 recorded matches · 2026-08-22 → 2026-10-18 UTC. A run of 10 is a lower bound. Related result sequences share one evidence family.
- Deviation
- 26.3
- Recency
- 96.5
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 70.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Oldest → newest · scores from Nottingham Forest’s perspective. Event: Losses in a row.
| Date (UTC) | Opponent | GF–GA | Event |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | LeedsH | 0–1L | Yes |
| 2026-08-29 | LiverpoolA | 2–2D | No |
| 2026-09-05 | TottenhamH | 0–0D | No |
| 2026-09-12 | Aston VillaA | 2–1W | No |
| 2026-09-19 | CoventryH | 0–1L | Yes |
| 2026-10-11 | Crystal PalaceA | 1–3L | Yes |
| 2026-10-18 | ArsenalH | 0–1L | Yes |
Consecutive known results, starting with the latest recorded match. Missing or special results are excluded. A 10+ streak is a lower bound within this window.
Full club analysis →
Brighton
Unbeaten in a row
5
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Streak61
The latest recorded sequence contains wins and draws without a defeat. It counts results, without adjusting for the opposition.
Recorded scores · all competitions · Last 7 recorded matches · 2026-08-23 → 2026-10-18 UTC. A run of 10 is a lower bound. Related result sequences share one evidence family.
- Deviation
- 43.8
- Recency
- 96.5
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 70.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Oldest → newest · scores from Brighton’s perspective. Event: Unbeaten in a row.
| Date (UTC) | Opponent | GF–GA | Event |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-23 | Aston VillaH | 4–0W | Yes |
| 2026-08-30 | ChelseaA | 3–4L | No |
| 2026-09-05 | LeedsH | 1–1D | Yes |
| 2026-09-13 | CoventryA | 5–0W | Yes |
| 2026-09-19 | ArsenalH | 3–0W | Yes |
| 2026-10-10 | SunderlandA | 2–0W | Yes |
| 2026-10-18 | Crystal PalaceH | 5–0W | Yes |
Consecutive known results, starting with the latest recorded match. Missing or special results are excluded. A 10+ streak is a lower bound within this window.
Full club analysis →About these insights
Read the signal. Keep the context.
Insights describe what is recorded. Use club and match analysis to explore what comes next.
Insight Score · experimental editorial interest. This version uses 0.35D + 0.25R + 0.20C + 0.20Q. D measures heuristic deviation, R observation recency, C breadth of evidence families and Q data quality. These starting weights are uncalibrated. It is neither team strength, win probability, statistical significance nor forecast confidence. Related result signals share one family; different sources are not automatically statistically independent. Unknown dates receive zero recency; unknown xG coverage limits its quality component. League averages are context references, not opponent-adjusted estimates.
Check the window
Result signals use the last 10 recorded matches; away signals use the last 8 away matches. At least 5 are required. Missing and special results are excluded. A 10+ streak is a lower bound.
Read the chart
Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored or conceded, capped at 6; zero keeps a marker. Teal / amber / red means win / draw / loss. Faded bars mean the event did not happen. Open the evidence for full scores.
Separate the sources
xG uses observed Playing style averages before the next or latest league fixture; coverage can differ between inputs. xPts comes from stored LOAD90 forecasts on identical covered games, including labelled historical reconstructions.
Types alternate for variety. Values are ordered within their own metric, without a combined ranking. These descriptive signals do not change the LOAD90 forecast.
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