1. FC Heidenheim
Attack—
Defense risk—
1. FC Heidenheim
18th · 16 pts · 28 played
LLLDD
3–1Full time
Union Berlin
11th · 32 pts · 28 played
LLWLD
Our take
It was too close to call.
Union Berlin were the stronger side on L90 Strength (41 vs 24). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for 1. FC Heidenheim. 1. FC Heidenheim had 7 days of rest, Union Berlin 6 and had to travel 486 km.
Away travel486 kmRest days7 · 6Matches / 14d1 · 1
1. FC Heidenheim38%
Draw27%
Union Berlin36%
1. FC Heidenheim33%
Draw27%
Union Berlin40%
1. FC Heidenheim39%
Draw27%
Union Berlin35%
1. FC Heidenheim31%
Draw26%
Union Berlin43%
1. FC Heidenheim37%
Draw27%
Union Berlin36%
Over 2.5 53%
Both score 57%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Heidenheim an der Brenz)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanyChristian Dingert
- Cards per match 4.5
- Penalties per match 0.29
- Matches 69
Team strength
1. FC HeidenheimUnion Berlin
24
L90 StrengthIn forecast
41
29
Current StrengthIn forecast
39
48
AttackIn forecast
42
39
DefenceIn forecast
41
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisUnion Berlin
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
1. FC HeidenheimUnion Berlin
1.04
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.14
2.25
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.68
1.19
xGVia Att/Def
1.21
1.78
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.41
-0.15
Goals minus xGContext
-0.07
61%
Scored inContext
71%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
21%
11.04
ShotsContext
11.75
3.58
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.50
30%
On target shareContext
30%
7.46
Shots in the boxContext
8.89
66%
Box shareContext
72%
9%
ConversionContext
10%
2.18
OffsidesContext
2.04
14.86
Shots allowedContext
12.89
5.54
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.29
3.81
BlocksContext
3.92
3.29
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.04
59%
Save rateContext
66%
42%
PossessionIn forecast
38%
355
PassesContext
312
276
Accurate passesContext
224
78%
Pass accuracyContext
72%
6.70
Team ratingContext
6.73
9.82
FoulsContext
12.25
10.21
Fouls sufferedContext
9.64
1.54
Yellow cardsContext
2.21
0.04
Red cardsContext
0.11
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.80
2.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.00
1.30
xGVia Att/Def
1.07
1.86
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.71
-0.10
Goals minus xGContext
-0.27
50%
Scored inContext
70%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
10.70
ShotsContext
10.00
3.44
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.50
29%
On target shareContext
35%
7.22
Shots in the boxContext
7.67
69%
Box shareContext
68%
11%
ConversionContext
8%
2.50
OffsidesContext
2.33
13.90
Shots allowedContext
14.50
5.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.30
3.78
BlocksContext
4.33
3.20
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.89
58%
Save rateContext
62%
41%
PossessionIn forecast
38%
338
PassesContext
295
262
Accurate passesContext
205
77%
Pass accuracyContext
70%
6.69
Team ratingContext
6.65
9.10
FoulsContext
11.50
10.20
Fouls sufferedContext
8.90
1.20
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
1. FC Heidenheim
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km770 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Union Berlin
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel486 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| 1. FC Heidenheim |
Union Berlin |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Bundesliga 2025-2026, 4 Apr | 6Bundesliga 2025-2026, 5 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 486 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 770 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
1. FC Heidenheim
Confirmed XI
41D. Ramaj(G)
26Hennes Behrens
19J. Föhrenbach
6P. Mainka
2M. Busch
17M. Honsak
3J. Schöppner
16J. Niehues
8E. Dinkçi
9S. Schimmer
18M. Pieringer
Union Berlin
Confirmed XI
1F. Rønnow(G)
4Diogo Leite
14L. Querfeld
5D. Doekhi
8R. Khedira
39D. Köhn
13A. Schäfer
33A. Král
19J. Haberer
23A. Ilić
7O. Burke
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences 1. FC Heidenheim
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Union Berlin
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- 1. FC Heidenheim-1.1 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Union Berlin+1.1 pp
Home / Away this season
1. FC Heidenheim · Home
0.79points per game · 14 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-5-7
- Scored
- 1.29
- Conceded
- 2.43
Union Berlin · Away
1.00points per game · 14 away games
- W-D-L
- 4-2-8
- Scored
- 0.93
- Conceded
- 1.79
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | 1. FC Heidenheim | Union Berlin |
|---|---|---|
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | D 2–2 AL 0–3 H | L 0–1 AW 3–1 H |
| Bayer Leverkusen | D 3–3 HL 0–6 A | W 1–0 HL 0–2 A |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | L 0–1 AD 1–1 H | D 1–1 HW 4–3 A |
| 1899 Hoffenheim | L 2–4 HL 1–3 A | L 1–3 AL 2–4 H |
| Werder Bremen | L 0–2 AD 2–2 H | L 1–4 HL 0–1 A |
| VfB Stuttgart | D 3–3 HL 0–1 A | D 1–1 AW 2–1 H |
| FC Augsburg | L 0–1 AW 2–1 H | D 1–1 A |
| Hamburger SV | L 0–2 HL 1–2 A | L 2–3 AD 0–0 H |
| Borussia Dortmund | L 2–3 AL 0–2 H | L 0–3 HL 0–3 A |
| RB Leipzig | L 0–3 HL 0–2 A | W 3–1 H |
| VfL Wolfsburg | D 1–1 AL 1–3 H | L 1–3 A |
| FSV Mainz 05 | L 1–2 A | D 2–2 H |
| 1.FC Köln | D 2–2 H | W 1–0 A |
| Bayern München | L 0–4 H | L 0–4 AD 2–2 H |
| FC St. Pauli | L 1–2 A | D 1–1 HW 1–0 A |
| SC Freiburg | W 2–1 H | W 1–0 AD 0–0 H |
| Points | 13 of 81 · 0.48 per game | 32 of 81 · 1.19 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings
4 1. FC Heidenheim wins1 draws0 Union Berlin wins
Goals per game2.00 – 0.60
Over 2.560%
Both scored40%
Clean sheets60% · 0%
- 29 Nov 2025Union Berlin1–21. FC Heidenheim
- 10 May 2025Union Berlin0–31. FC Heidenheim
- 11 Jan 20251. FC Heidenheim2–0Union Berlin
- 24 Feb 2024Union Berlin2–21. FC Heidenheim
- 30 Sep 20231. FC Heidenheim1–0Union Berlin
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| 1. FC Heidenheim | Union Berlin | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.04 | 1.14 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.25 | 1.68 | |
| Match goals | 3.29 | 2.82 | 2.79 |
| Over 1.5 | 89% | 71% | |
| Over 2.5 | 68% | 54% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 39% | 39% | |
| Both teams scored | 61% | 57% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 21% | |
| Failed to score | 39% | 29% | |
| Games | 28 | 28 |
| 1. FC Heidenheim | Union Berlin | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.20 | 0.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.40 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.60 | 2.80 | 2.79 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 50% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| 1. FC Heidenheim | Union Berlin | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.54 | 4.44 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.81 | 4.52 | |
| Match total | 9.35 | 8.96 | 9.54 |
| Over 8.5 | 62% 16/26 | 67% 18/27 | |
| Over 9.5 | 38% 10/26 | 41% 11/27 | |
| Over 10.5 | 35% 9/26 | 22% 6/27 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.57 | 2.36 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.04 | 2.07 | |
| Match total | 3.61 | 4.43 | 3.92 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 14/28 | 61% 17/28 | |
| Over 4.5 | 36% 10/28 | 46% 13/28 | |
| 1. FC Heidenheim | Union Berlin | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 4.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 4.70 | |
| Match total | 9.00 | 8.70 | 9.54 |
| Over 8.5 | 44% 4/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 22% 2/9 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 22% 2/9 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.20 | 2.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.70 | 2.10 | |
| Match total | 2.90 | 4.20 | 3.92 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Christian Dingert Germany · 69 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.29league 3.75
Red cards0.16league 0.18
Cards 5+48%league 38%
Fouls23.4league 20.5
Penalties0.29league 0.36
Home wins38%league 44%
1. FC Heidenheim5 with this referee
Record0-2-3
Cards · opp.1.6 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 3
- D1 Nov 25H · Eintracht Frankfurt1–10
- L15 Dec 24H · VfB Stuttgart1–34
- D27 Oct 24H · 1899 Hoffenheim0–01
- L2 Dec 23A · RB Leipzig1–22
- L24 Sep 23A · Bayer Leverkusen1–41
Union Berlin8 with this referee
Record3-1-4
Cards · opp.3.9 · 2.1
Pens for · against0 · 1
- W20 Dec 25A · 1.FC Köln1–05
- L4 Oct 25A · Bayer Leverkusen0–23
- L30 Nov 24H · Bayer Leverkusen1–24
- W18 May 24H · SC Freiburg2–17
- L2 Mar 24H · Borussia Dortmund0–22
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
1. FC Heidenheim28 games · scored 29 · conceded 63
1
3
0-15
4
10
16-30
4
15
31-45
6
12
46-60
6
10
61-75
8
13
76-90
Union Berlin28 games · scored 32 · conceded 47
2
2
0-15
6
3
16-30
4
16
31-45
5
9
46-60
4
4
61-75
11
13
76-90
1. FC Heidenheim10 games · scored 12 · conceded 24
1
0-15
2
3
16-30
2
5
31-45
2
3
46-60
3
6
61-75
3
6
76-90
Union Berlin10 games · scored 8 · conceded 20
1
0-15
3
1
16-30
8
31-45
1
3
46-60
1
2
61-75
3
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
