1.FC Köln
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
RB Leipzig were slight favourites.
RB Leipzig were the stronger side on L90 Strength (65 vs 38). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for 1.FC Köln. 1.FC Köln had 8.8 days of rest, RB Leipzig 8 and had to travel 381 km.
Away travel381 kmRest days8.8 · 8Matches / 14d2 · 2
1.FC Köln30%
Draw25%
RB Leipzig45%
1.FC Köln28%
Draw27%
RB Leipzig45%
1.FC Köln30%
Draw26%
RB Leipzig44%
1.FC Köln23%
Draw24%
RB Leipzig53%
1.FC Köln30%
Draw27%
RB Leipzig43%
Over 2.5 56%
Both score 59%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Köln)
No weather data yet
RefereeFrank Willenborg
- Cards per match 4.5
- Penalties per match 0.25
- Matches 55
Team strength
1.FC Köln
RB Leipzig
38
L90 StrengthIn forecast
65
34
Current StrengthIn forecast
67
36
AttackIn forecast
76
36
DefenceIn forecast
53
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisRB Leipzig
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
1.FC KölnRB Leipzig
1.45
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.90
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.35
1.23
xGVia Att/Def
1.80
1.51
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.42
+0.22
Goals minus xGContext
+0.10
85%
Scored inContext
90%
15%
Clean sheetsContext
45%
12.40
ShotsContext
15.45
4.53
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.55
35%
On target shareContext
36%
8.16
Shots in the boxContext
10.85
62%
Box shareContext
70%
12%
ConversionContext
12%
2.20
OffsidesContext
2.23
13.75
Shots allowedContext
11.90
5.05
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.85
4.21
BlocksContext
3.74
3.37
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.82
67%
Save rateContext
68%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
404
PassesContext
499
329
Accurate passesContext
424
82%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.83
Team ratingContext
7.01
8.10
FoulsContext
8.90
10.10
Fouls sufferedContext
10.30
1.65
Yellow cardsContext
1.30
0.05
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.80
1.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.11
xGVia Att/Def
1.77
1.37
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.55
+0.09
Goals minus xGContext
+0.03
80%
Scored inContext
90%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
12.10
ShotsContext
15.60
4.10
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.00
34%
On target shareContext
39%
8.00
Shots in the boxContext
11.30
63%
Box shareContext
72%
10%
ConversionContext
12%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.14
12.90
Shots allowedContext
10.00
5.33
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.20
3.56
BlocksContext
2.78
3.44
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
65%
Save rateContext
66%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
57%
414
PassesContext
547
336
Accurate passesContext
473
81%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.77
Team ratingContext
7.02
6.80
FoulsContext
8.00
8.90
Fouls sufferedContext
9.60
1.40
Yellow cardsContext
1.00
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
1.FC Köln
Rest8.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km666 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
RB Leipzig
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel381 km588 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| 1.FC Köln |
RB Leipzig |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8.8Bundesliga 2025-2026, 30 Jan | 8Bundesliga 2025-2026, 31 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 381 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 666 km | 588 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 4 | 0 / 2 / 5 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.1 | 7.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
1.FC Köln
Confirmed XI
1M. Schwäbe(G)
32K. Lund
39C. Özkacar
6E. Martel
28S. Sebulonsen
29J. Thielmann
16J. Kamiński
5T. Krauß
18Í. Jóhannesson
13S. El Mala
9R. Ache
RB Leipzig
Confirmed XI
1P. Gulácsi(G)
22D. Raum
13N. Seiwald
4V. Orbán
39B. Henrichs
14C. Baumgartner
24X. Schlager
10B. Gruda
7A. Nusa
40Rômulo
49Y. Diomande
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences 1.FC Köln
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
RB Leipzig
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- 1.FC Köln+0.0 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- RB Leipzig+0.3 pp
Home / Away this season
1.FC Köln · Home
1.40points per game · 10 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-2-4
- Scored
- 1.80
- Conceded
- 1.50
RB Leipzig · Away
1.50points per game · 10 away games
- W-D-L
- 4-3-3
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 1.40
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | 1.FC Köln | RB Leipzig |
|---|---|---|
| VfL Wolfsburg | W 1–0 HD 3–3 A | W 1–0 A |
| SC Freiburg | L 1–2 AW 4–1 H | W 2–0 H |
| FSV Mainz 05 | W 2–1 HW 1–0 A | L 1–2 HW 1–0 A |
| Bayern München | L 1–3 H | L 1–5 HL 0–6 A |
| 1. FC Heidenheim | D 2–2 A | W 3–0 AW 2–0 H |
| Union Berlin | L 0–1 H | L 1–3 A |
| Bayer Leverkusen | L 0–2 A | L 1–3 H |
| FC St. Pauli | D 1–1 H | D 1–1 A |
| Werder Bremen | D 1–1 A | W 2–0 H |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | L 3–4 H | W 6–0 H |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | L 1–3 A | D 0–0 A |
| Hamburger SV | W 4–1 H | W 2–1 H |
| Borussia Dortmund | L 0–1 A | D 1–1 A |
| FC Augsburg | D 1–1 H | W 6–0 A |
| 1899 Hoffenheim | W 1–0 A | L 1–3 A |
| VfB Stuttgart | L 1–2 H | W 3–1 H |
| Points | 23 of 57 · 1.21 per game | 33 of 57 · 1.74 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings
0 1.FC Köln wins3 draws4 RB Leipzig wins
Goals per game0.86 – 2.86
Over 2.571%
Both scored71%
Clean sheets14% · 29%
- 20 Sep 2025RB Leipzig3–11.FC Köln
- 15 Mar 20241.FC Köln1–5RB Leipzig
- 28 Oct 2023RB Leipzig6–01.FC Köln
- 4 Feb 20231.FC Köln0–0RB Leipzig
- 13 Aug 2022RB Leipzig2–21.FC Köln
- 11 Feb 2022RB Leipzig3–11.FC Köln
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| 1.FC Köln | RB Leipzig | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.45 | 1.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 1.35 | |
| Match goals | 3.05 | 3.25 | 2.94 |
| Over 1.5 | 75% | 85% | |
| Over 2.5 | 55% | 60% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 45% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 15% | 45% | |
| Failed to score | 15% | 10% | |
| Games | 20 | 20 |
| 1.FC Köln | RB Leipzig | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.20 | 1.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.70 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 2.90 | 3.20 | 2.94 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 60% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| 1.FC Köln | RB Leipzig | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.21 | 5.61 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.11 | 4.83 | |
| Match total | 10.32 | 10.44 | 9.73 |
| Over 8.5 | 63% 12/19 | 72% 13/18 | |
| Over 9.5 | 47% 9/19 | 61% 11/18 | |
| Over 10.5 | 37% 7/19 | 33% 6/18 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.70 | 1.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.20 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 3.90 | 3.20 | 3.90 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 12/20 | 40% 8/20 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 8/20 | 15% 3/20 | |
| 1.FC Köln | RB Leipzig | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 5.75 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.11 | 5.13 | |
| Match total | 9.11 | 10.88 | 9.73 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 88% 7/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 3/9 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 22% 2/9 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 1.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 3.50 | 2.50 | 3.90 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 0% 0/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Frank Willenborg 55 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.38league 3.74
Red cards0.16league 0.18
Cards 5+49%league 38%
Fouls22.0league 21.0
Penalties0.25league 0.35
Home wins40%league 45%
1.FC Köln4 with this referee
Record0-2-2
Cards · opp.1.8 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
- L13 Apr 24A · Bayern München0–23
- D10 Dec 23H · FSV Mainz 050–02
- L25 Feb 23H · VfL Wolfsburg0–21
- D30 Oct 22H · 1899 Hoffenheim1–11
RB Leipzig6 with this referee
Record2-1-3
Cards · opp.1.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W30 Aug 25H · 1. FC Heidenheim2–02
- L23 Nov 24A · 1899 Hoffenheim3–41
- D30 Mar 24H · FSV Mainz 050–02
- L13 Jan 24H · Eintracht Frankfurt0–10
- W25 Aug 23H · VfB Stuttgart5–11
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
1.FC Köln20 games · scored 29 · conceded 32
4
3
0-15
5
4
16-30
2
8
31-45
6
2
46-60
8
61-75
12
7
76-90
RB Leipzig20 games · scored 38 · conceded 27
6
0-15
3
4
16-30
9
6
31-45
9
4
46-60
8
5
61-75
3
8
76-90
1.FC Köln10 games · scored 12 · conceded 17
2
2
0-15
2
3
16-30
1
4
31-45
3
1
46-60
4
61-75
4
3
76-90
RB Leipzig10 games · scored 18 · conceded 14
1
0-15
1
16-30
3
3
31-45
5
3
46-60
7
2
61-75
1
6
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
