Bundesliga Gameweek 20 Sat, Jan 31 · 14:30 PreZero Arena, Sinsheim
1899 Hoffenheim 3rd · 39 pts · 19 played
3–1Full time
Union Berlin 9th · 24 pts · 19 played
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
1899 Hoffenheim57.6%fair odds 1.74
Draw22.5%fair odds 4.44
Union Berlin19.9%fair odds 5.03
Expected goals1.99 – 1.09total 3.08
Likeliest score1–110.5%

Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.

Match Opportunity

How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.

1899 Hoffenheim

— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.

Union Berlin

— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.

About this comparison

The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.

Score matrix

1899 Hoffenheim ↓ · Union Berlin →0123456+
05.14.52.71.00.30.10.0
18.610.55.52.00.50.10.0
29.19.95.42.00.50.10.0
36.06.63.61.30.40.10.0
43.03.31.80.70.20.00.0
51.21.30.70.30.10.00.0
6+0.50.60.30.10.00.00.0

Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are 1899 Hoffenheim goals, columns Union Berlin goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.

Most likely scores

  • 1–110.5%9.52
  • 2–19.9%10.09
  • 2–09.1%11.04
  • 1–08.6%11.65
  • 3–16.6%15.22
  • 3–06.0%16.65
  • 1–25.5%18.33
  • 2–25.4%18.43
  • 0–05.1%19.56
  • 0–14.5%22.29

Winning margin

17.0% 1899 Hoffenheim by 3+ fair 5.87
17.7% 1899 Hoffenheim by 2 fair 5.65
22.8% 1899 Hoffenheim by 1 fair 4.38
22.5% Draw fair 4.44
12.3% Union Berlin by 1 fair 8.11
5.4% Union Berlin by 2 fair 18.65
2.2% Union Berlin by 3+ fair 45.47

Goal distribution

Total goals

5%0
13%1
22%2
22%3
17%4
20%5+

1899 Hoffenheim goals

14%0
27%1
27%2
18%3
14%4+

Union Berlin goals

33%0
37%1
20%2
7%3
3%4+

LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda

LOAD90EloLambdaChange
1899 Hoffenheim win 57.6% 55.9% +1.7 pp
Draw 22.5% 23.7% -1.2 pp
Union Berlin win 19.9% 20.4% -0.5 pp
Over 2.5 59.5% 55.3% +4.2 pp
Both teams score 57.9% 55.1% +2.8 pp
Expected goals 1899 Hoffenheim 1.99 1.85 +0.13
Expected goals Union Berlin 1.09 1.04 +0.05

EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.

All markets model probability and fair odds

Result

  • 1899 Hoffenheim win57.6%1.74
  • Draw22.5%4.44
  • Union Berlin win19.9%5.03
  • Double chance 1899 Hoffenheim or draw80.1%1.25
  • Double chance 1899 Hoffenheim or Union Berlin77.5%1.29
  • Double chance Union Berlin or draw42.4%2.36
  • Draw no bet 1899 Hoffenheim74.3%1.35
  • Draw no bet Union Berlin25.7%3.89

Goals

  • Over 0.594.9%1.05
  • Over 1.581.8%1.22
  • Over 2.559.5%1.68
  • Over 3.537.1%2.69
  • Over 4.519.9%5.03
  • Under 1.518.2%5.50
  • Under 2.540.5%2.47
  • Under 3.562.9%1.59

Both teams to score

  • Yes57.9%1.73
  • No42.1%2.38
  • Yes and over 2.547.4%2.11
  • 1899 Hoffenheim win and yes29.2%3.42
  • Draw and yes17.4%5.74
  • Union Berlin win and yes11.3%8.84

Team goals

  • 1899 Hoffenheim over 0.586.3%1.16
  • 1899 Hoffenheim over 1.559.1%1.69
  • 1899 Hoffenheim over 2.532.0%3.12
  • Union Berlin over 0.566.5%1.50
  • Union Berlin over 1.529.9%3.35
  • Union Berlin over 2.59.8%10.16
  • 1899 Hoffenheim clean sheet33.5%2.99
  • Union Berlin clean sheet13.7%7.30
  • 1899 Hoffenheim win to nil28.4%3.53
  • Union Berlin win to nil8.6%11.66

Handicap

  • 1899 Hoffenheim −1.534.7%2.88
  • 1899 Hoffenheim −2.517.0%5.87
  • Union Berlin +1.565.3%1.53
  • Union Berlin +2.583.0%1.21
  • Union Berlin −1.57.6%13.22
  • 1899 Hoffenheim +1.592.4%1.08

Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.

Model track record Bundesliga 2025-2026

All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.

Matches scored171 Favourite won56.1% Avg chance given to result42.9% 1X2 Brier0.563 Over 2.5 called right62.6% BTTS called right55.6%

Calibration · when the favourite was given…

Favourite chanceMatchesPredictedActually won
30–40%2538.2%44.0%
40–50%5445.1%42.6%
50–60%4555.1%57.8%
60–70%2764.9%77.8%
70–80%1374.3%76.9%
80%+786.7%71.4%

LOAD90 vs Bookmaker

Compared on the same 151 of 171 scored matches.

LOAD90Bookmaker
1X2 Brier (lower is better)0.55490.5485
Avg chance given to result43.4%43.1%
Favourite won57.6%57.6%

Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 151 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.

Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 171 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.