1899 Hoffenheim
Attack—
Defense risk—
1899 Hoffenheim
3rd · 39 pts · 19 played
DWWWW
3–1Full time
Union Berlin
9th · 24 pts · 19 played
WDDDL
Our take
1899 Hoffenheim were slight favourites.
1899 Hoffenheim were the stronger side on L90 Strength (63 vs 44). Absences weigh more on 1899 Hoffenheim. 1899 Hoffenheim had 3.8 days of rest, Union Berlin 6.9 and had to travel 483 km.
Away travel483 kmRest days3.8 · 6.9Matches / 14d3 · 2
1899 Hoffenheim58%
Draw23%
Union Berlin20%
1899 Hoffenheim55%
Draw24%
Union Berlin20%
1899 Hoffenheim58%
Draw22%
Union Berlin19%
1899 Hoffenheim50%
Draw24%
Union Berlin26%
1899 Hoffenheim56%
Draw24%
Union Berlin20%
Over 2.5 60%
Both score 58%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Sinsheim)
No weather data yet
RefereeRobin Braun
- Cards per match 4.7
- Penalties per match 0.56
- Matches 9
Team strength
1899 HoffenheimUnion Berlin
63
L90 StrengthIn forecast
44
47
Current StrengthIn forecast
39
46
AttackIn forecast
42
43
DefenceIn forecast
41
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisUnion Berlin
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
1899 HoffenheimUnion Berlin
2.11
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.26
1.16
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.58
1.53
xGVia Att/Def
1.29
1.30
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.27
+0.58
Goals minus xGContext
-0.03
84%
Scored inContext
68%
26%
Clean sheetsContext
21%
12.84
ShotsContext
12.58
4.79
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.47
37%
On target shareContext
28%
9.06
Shots in the boxContext
9.42
68%
Box shareContext
75%
16%
ConversionContext
10%
2.19
OffsidesContext
1.87
11.89
Shots allowedContext
12.11
3.89
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.32
3.78
BlocksContext
3.69
3.18
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.06
77%
Save rateContext
67%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
40%
458
PassesContext
324
368
Accurate passesContext
236
81%
Pass accuracyContext
73%
6.92
Team ratingContext
6.75
14.37
FoulsContext
12.53
9.05
Fouls sufferedContext
10.32
1.95
Yellow cardsContext
2.21
0.05
Red cardsContext
0.11
2.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
0.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.43
xGVia Att/Def
1.38
1.22
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.94
+0.77
Goals minus xGContext
-0.08
80%
Scored inContext
90%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
13.10
ShotsContext
13.20
4.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.50
36%
On target shareContext
27%
8.80
Shots in the boxContext
10.40
64%
Box shareContext
79%
17%
ConversionContext
10%
2.22
OffsidesContext
1.71
12.90
Shots allowedContext
9.90
3.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.40
4.44
BlocksContext
3.00
3.11
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.38
85%
Save rateContext
63%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
476
PassesContext
368
383
Accurate passesContext
274
80%
Pass accuracyContext
75%
6.96
Team ratingContext
6.75
13.70
FoulsContext
11.20
8.50
Fouls sufferedContext
9.30
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
1899 Hoffenheim
Rest3.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km1,044 km in 14d
Schedule load15%Low
Union Berlin
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel483 km1,024 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| 1899 Hoffenheim |
Union Berlin |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 15 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 3.8Bundesliga 2025-2026, 27 Jan | 6.9Bundesliga 2025-2026, 24 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 483 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,044 km | 1,024 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 2 / 3 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8.1 | 6.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
1899 Hoffenheim
Confirmed XI
1O. Baumann(G)
21A. Hajdari
5O. Kabak
2R. Hranáč
34V. Coufal
6G. Prömel
7L. Avdullahu
27A. Kramarić
29B. Toure
11F. Asllani
19T. Lemperle
Union Berlin
Confirmed XI
1F. Rønnow(G)
4Diogo Leite
14L. Querfeld
5D. Doekhi
34S. Nsoki
6A. Kemlein
8R. Khedira
19J. Haberer
11W. Jeong
7O. Burke
23A. Ilić
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences 1899 Hoffenheim
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Union Berlin
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- 1899 Hoffenheim-0.7 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Union Berlin+0.7 pp
Home / Away this season
1899 Hoffenheim · Home
2.00points per game · 9 home games
- W-D-L
- 6-0-3
- Scored
- 2.33
- Conceded
- 1.33
Union Berlin · Away
1.22points per game · 9 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-2-4
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.56
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | 1899 Hoffenheim | Union Berlin |
|---|---|---|
| Werder Bremen | W 2–0 A | L 0–1 A |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | W 3–1 AL 1–3 H | W 4–3 A |
| Bayer Leverkusen | W 1–0 HW 2–1 A | L 0–2 A |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | W 5–1 H | W 3–1 H |
| VfB Stuttgart | D 0–0 A | D 1–1 AW 2–1 H |
| Hamburger SV | W 4–1 H | D 0–0 H |
| Borussia Dortmund | L 0–2 A | L 0–3 HL 0–3 A |
| FC Augsburg | W 3–0 H | D 1–1 A |
| FSV Mainz 05 | D 1–1 A | D 2–2 H |
| RB Leipzig | W 3–1 H | W 3–1 H |
| VfL Wolfsburg | W 3–2 A | L 1–3 A |
| 1. FC Heidenheim | W 3–1 H | L 1–2 H |
| FC St. Pauli | W 3–0 A | W 1–0 A |
| 1.FC Köln | L 0–1 H | W 1–0 A |
| SC Freiburg | D 1–1 A | D 0–0 H |
| Bayern München | L 1–4 H | D 2–2 H |
| Points | 36 of 54 · 2.00 per game | 24 of 54 · 1.33 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings
3 1899 Hoffenheim wins1 draws5 Union Berlin wins
Goals per game1.67 – 2.00
Over 2.578%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets11% · 22%
- 13 Sep 2025Union Berlin2–41899 Hoffenheim
- 8 Feb 20251899 Hoffenheim0–4Union Berlin
- 21 Sep 2024Union Berlin2–11899 Hoffenheim
- 17 Feb 20241899 Hoffenheim0–1Union Berlin
- 23 Sep 2023Union Berlin0–21899 Hoffenheim
- 20 May 20231899 Hoffenheim4–2Union Berlin
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| 1899 Hoffenheim | Union Berlin | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.11 | 1.26 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.16 | 1.58 | |
| Match goals | 3.26 | 2.84 | 3.08 |
| Over 1.5 | 84% | 74% | |
| Over 2.5 | 63% | 58% | 60% |
| Over 3.5 | 47% | 37% | |
| Both teams scored | 63% | 58% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 26% | 21% | |
| Failed to score | 16% | 32% | |
| Games | 19 | 19 |
| 1899 Hoffenheim | Union Berlin | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.20 | 1.30 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.70 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.90 | 2.80 | 3.08 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 60% | 60% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| 1899 Hoffenheim | Union Berlin | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.00 | 4.83 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.16 | 4.28 | |
| Match total | 10.16 | 9.11 | 9.64 |
| Over 8.5 | 74% 14/19 | 72% 13/18 | |
| Over 9.5 | 63% 12/19 | 50% 9/18 | |
| Over 10.5 | 47% 9/19 | 22% 4/18 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 2.37 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.42 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 3.42 | 4.37 | 3.89 |
| Over 3.5 | 53% 10/19 | 63% 12/19 | |
| Over 4.5 | 21% 4/19 | 47% 9/19 | |
| 1899 Hoffenheim | Union Berlin | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.70 | 4.67 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.60 | 3.67 | |
| Match total | 9.30 | 8.34 | 9.64 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 11% 1/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.10 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 3.60 | 3.60 | 3.89 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Robin Braun 9 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.33league 3.73
Red cards0.33league 0.18
Cards 5+44%league 39%
Fouls19.8league 21.0
Penalties0.56league 0.33
Home wins44%league 44%
1899 Hoffenheim2 with this referee
Record0-0-2
Cards · opp.2.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
- L2 Feb 25A · Bayer Leverkusen1–33
- L22 Apr 23H · 1.FC Köln1–31
Union BerlinNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
1899 Hoffenheim19 games · scored 40 · conceded 22
4
4
0-15
7
4
16-30
10
2
31-45
8
5
46-60
5
3
61-75
6
4
76-90
Union Berlin19 games · scored 24 · conceded 30
2
2
0-15
3
2
16-30
4
8
31-45
4
7
46-60
3
2
61-75
8
9
76-90
1899 Hoffenheim10 games · scored 22 · conceded 7
3
1
0-15
5
1
16-30
6
1
31-45
3
1
46-60
3
1
61-75
2
2
76-90
Union Berlin10 games · scored 13 · conceded 15
2
0-15
1
2
16-30
2
2
31-45
1
4
46-60
2
1
61-75
7
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
