AC Milan vs Lecce – 18 Jan 2026

Serie A Gameweek 21 Sun, Jan 18 · 19:45 Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, Milano

AC Milan 2nd · 43 pts · 20 played WWDDW

1–0Full time

Lecce 18th · 17 pts · 20 played LDLLL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

AC Milan were clear favourites.

AC Milan were the stronger side on L90 Strength (72 vs 21). AC Milan had 3 days of rest, Lecce 4 and had to travel 925 km.

Away travel925 kmRest days3 · 4Matches / 14d3 · 3

AC Milan75%

Draw17%

Lecce8%

Expected goals 2.36 – 0.65

AC Milan76%

Draw16%

Lecce8%

Expected goals 2.51 – 0.71

AC Milan74%

Draw17%

Lecce8%

Expected goals 2.28 – 0.64

AC Milan69%

Draw20%

Lecce11%

Expected goals 2.11 – 0.73

AC Milan77%

Draw15%

Lecce8%

Expected goals 2.60 – 0.73

Over 2.5 58% Both score 44% Likeliest score 2–0

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Milano)

No weather data yet

Referee · ItalyLuca Zufferli

Cards per match 2.9
Penalties per match 0.24
Matches 33

Team strength

AC Milan

Lecce

72 L90 StrengthIn forecast 21

66 Current StrengthIn forecast 28

72 AttackIn forecast 36

69 DefenceIn forecast 30

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

AC Milan

Attack—

Defense risk—

Lecce

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

AC Milan

Lecce

1.65 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.65

0.80 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.40

1.57 xGVia Att/Def 0.75

1.04 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.40

+0.08 Goals minus xGContext -0.10

95% Scored inContext 50%

45% Clean sheetsContext 30%

13.50 ShotsContext 9.65

4.65 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 2.47

34% On target shareContext 24%

9.20 Shots in the boxContext 5.40

67% Box shareContext 55%

12% ConversionContext 7%

1.89 OffsidesContext 1.36

11.00 Shots allowedContext 12.65

3.68 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.53

3.42 BlocksContext 3.60

3.17 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.16

84% Save rateContext 70%

51% PossessionIn forecast 43%

468 PassesContext 331

409 Accurate passesContext 252

88% Pass accuracyContext 76%

7.00 Team ratingContext 6.71

9.50 FoulsContext 12.45

11.25 Fouls sufferedContext 14.05

1.50 Yellow cardsContext 1.85

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.10

This league season, per match · 20 and 20 games

1.80 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.50

0.90 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.40

1.64 xGVia Att/Def 0.74

1.07 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.57

+0.16 Goals minus xGContext -0.24

100% Scored inContext 40%

40% Clean sheetsContext 20%

13.50 ShotsContext 9.60

4.70 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 2.00

35% On target shareContext 21%

9.40 Shots in the boxContext 5.60

67% Box shareContext 54%

13% ConversionContext 5%

2.00 OffsidesContext 1.43

11.70 Shots allowedContext 13.20

3.90 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.89

3.40 BlocksContext 4.10

3.20 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.56

82% Save rateContext 73%

51% PossessionIn forecast 43%

469 PassesContext 323

409 Accurate passesContext 241

87% Pass accuracyContext 75%

7.00 Team ratingContext 6.72

9.20 FoulsContext 12.30

10.80 Fouls sufferedContext 14.50

1.50 Yellow cardsContext 2.00

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.20

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

AC Milan

Rest3 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel0 km575 km in 14d

Schedule load23%Moderate

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Lecce

Rest4 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel925 km1,851 km in 14d

Schedule load32%Moderate

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	AC Milan	Lecce
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Moderate · 23	Moderate · 32
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	3Serie A 2025-2026, 15 Jan	4Serie A 2025-2026, 14 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	925 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	575 km	1,851 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 3 / 5	1 / 3 / 5
Next matchdays after this one	7	6

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

AC Milan Confirmed XI

3-5-2

16M. Maignan(G)

5K. De Winter 46M. Gabbia 23O. Tomori

2P. Estupiñán 12A. Rabiot 30A. Jashari 4S. Ricci 56A. Saelemaekers

10Rafael Leão 11C. Pulišić

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

Lecce Confirmed XI

4-3-3

30W. Falcone(G)

25A. Gallo 3C. Ndaba 44Tiago Gabriel 5J. Siebert

29L. Coulibaly 20Y. Ramadani 16O. Gandelman

23R. Sottil 9N. Štulić 50S. Pierotti

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

AC Milan Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Lecce Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.09 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

AC Milan+1.1 pp
Draw-0.8 pp
Lecce-0.3 pp

Home / Away this season

AC Milan · Home 2.10points per game · 10 home games

W-D-L: 6-3-1
Scored: 1.60
Conceded: 0.90

Lecce · Away 0.89points per game · 9 away games

W-D-L: 2-2-5
Scored: 0.67
Conceded: 1.44

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

Opponent	AC Milan	Lecce
Como	W 3–1 A	L 0–3 H
Fiorentina	D 1–1 AW 2–1 H	W 1–0 A
Genoa	D 1–1 H	D 0–0 A
Cagliari	W 1–0 A	L 1–2 H
Verona	W 3–0 H	D 0–0 H
Sassuolo	D 2–2 H	D 0–0 H
Torino	W 3–2 A	W 2–1 H
Lazio	W 1–0 H	L 0–2 A
Inter	W 1–0 A	L 0–1 A
Parma	D 2–2 A	L 1–2 HW 1–0 A
AS Roma	W 1–0 H	L 0–2 H
Atalanta	D 1–1 A	L 1–4 A
Pisa	D 2–2 H	W 1–0 H
Juventus	D 0–0 A	D 1–1 A
Napoli	W 2–1 H	L 0–1 H
Udinese	W 3–0 A	L 2–3 A
Bologna	W 1–0 H	D 2–2 H
Cremonese	L 1–2 H	L 0–2 A
Points	40 of 57 · 2.11 per game	17 of 57 · 0.89 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings

5 AC Milan wins2 draws0 Lecce wins

Goals per game2.43 – 0.86 Over 2.571% Both scored43% Clean sheets57% · 0%

29 Aug 2025Lecce0–2AC Milan
8 Mar 2025Lecce2–3AC Milan
27 Sep 2024AC Milan3–0Lecce
6 Apr 2024AC Milan3–0Lecce
11 Nov 2023Lecce2–2AC Milan
23 Apr 2023AC Milan2–0Lecce

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	AC Milan	Lecce	Forecast
Scored per game	1.65	0.65
Conceded per game	0.80	1.40
Match goals	2.45	2.05	3.01
Over 1.5	70%	60%
Over 2.5	50%	35%	58%
Over 3.5	25%	15%
Both teams scored	55%	35%	44%
Clean sheets	45%	30%
Failed to score	5%	50%
Games	20	20

	AC Milan	Lecce	Forecast
Scored per game	1.80	0.50
Conceded per game	0.90	1.40
Match goals	2.70	1.90	3.01
Over 1.5	70%	70%
Over 2.5	50%	30%	58%
Over 3.5	40%	0%
Both teams scored	60%	30%	44%
Clean sheets	40%	20%
Failed to score	0%	60%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	AC Milan	Lecce	League
Corners
Corners won	4.78	4.65
Corners conceded	4.72	5.30
Match total	9.50	9.95	8.80
Over 8.5	67% 12/18	80% 16/20
Over 9.5	44% 8/18	65% 13/20
Over 10.5	39% 7/18	40% 8/20
Cards
Cards	1.60	1.95
Opponent cards	2.15	1.65
Match total	3.75	3.60	3.95
Over 3.5	55% 11/20	55% 11/20
Over 4.5	35% 7/20	35% 7/20

	AC Milan	Lecce	League
Corners
Corners won	4.90	4.30
Corners conceded	4.60	5.40
Match total	9.50	9.70	8.80
Over 8.5	70% 7/10	80% 8/10
Over 9.5	50% 5/10	70% 7/10
Over 10.5	40% 4/10	40% 4/10
Cards
Cards	1.60	2.20
Opponent cards	1.90	1.60
Match total	3.50	3.80	3.95
Over 3.5	40% 4/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Luca Zufferli Italy · 33 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards2.76league 3.81

Red cards0.12league 0.17

Cards 5+27%league 36%

Fouls23.9league 25.7

Penalties0.24league 0.30

Home wins55%league 37%

AC Milan2 with this referee

Record1-1-0 Cards · opp.1.5 · 2.5 Pens for · against0 · 1 Reds1

D24 Oct 25H · Pisa2–21
W27 Sep 24H · Lecce3–02

Lecce4 with this referee

Record1-0-3 Cards · opp.1.3 · 2.3 Pens for · against0 · 2

L19 Sep 25H · Cagliari1–22
L12 Apr 25A · Juventus1–21
L27 Sep 24A · AC Milan0–31
W16 Dec 23H · Frosinone2–11

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.