Arsenal vs Crystal Palace – 26 Oct 2025

Premier League Gameweek 9 Sun, Oct 26 · 14:00 Emirates Stadium, London

Arsenal 1st · 19 pts · 8 played WDWWW

1–0Full time

Crystal Palace 9th · 13 pts · 8 played DWWLD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Arsenal were clear favourites.

Arsenal were the stronger side on L90 Strength (93 vs 76). Absences weigh more on Arsenal. Arsenal had 7.9 days of rest, Crystal Palace 8 and had to travel 0 km.

Away travel0 kmRest days7.9 · 8Matches / 14d1 · 1

Arsenal66%

Draw20%

Crystal Palace14%

Expected goals 2.26 – 0.95

Arsenal65%

Draw21%

Crystal Palace14%

Expected goals 2.08 – 0.86

Arsenal68%

Draw19%

Crystal Palace13%

Expected goals 2.28 – 0.92

Arsenal59%

Draw22%

Crystal Palace19%

Expected goals 2.02 – 1.07

Arsenal64%

Draw21%

Crystal Palace15%

Expected goals 2.06 – 0.89

Over 2.5 62% Both score 55% Likeliest score 2–0

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (London)

No weather data yet

RefereeThomas Bramall

Cards per match 3.8
Penalties per match 0.16
Matches 90

Team strength

Arsenal

Crystal Palace

93 L90 StrengthIn forecast 76

94 Current StrengthIn forecast 62

86 AttackIn forecast 64

95 DefenceIn forecast 54

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Arsenal

Attack—

Defense risk—

Crystal Palace

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Arsenal

Crystal Palace

1.88 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.50

0.38 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00

1.76 xGVia Att/Def 2.17

0.60 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.36

+0.12 Goals minus xGContext -0.67

88% Scored inContext 75%

63% Clean sheetsContext 38%

15.38 ShotsContext 13.50

4.25 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.38

28% On target shareContext 40%

12.13 Shots in the boxContext 9.50

78% Box shareContext 71%

12% ConversionContext 11%

2.20 OffsidesContext 2.00

8.13 Shots allowedContext 12.13

3.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.86

3.57 BlocksContext 3.00

2.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.00

83% Save rateContext 69%

59% PossessionIn forecast 43%

491 PassesContext 366

423 Accurate passesContext 289

86% Pass accuracyContext 79%

7.09 Team ratingContext 7.05

10.38 FoulsContext 10.75

10.25 Fouls sufferedContext 11.00

1.13 Yellow cardsContext 2.25

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 8 and 8 games

2.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.40

0.30 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.90

1.88 xGVia Att/Def 2.23

0.49 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.11

+0.32 Goals minus xGContext -0.83

90% Scored inContext 70%

70% Clean sheetsContext 40%

15.90 ShotsContext 13.30

4.90 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.00

31% On target shareContext 38%

13.10 Shots in the boxContext 9.70

82% Box shareContext 73%

14% ConversionContext 11%

2.14 OffsidesContext 2.13

7.50 Shots allowedContext 9.90

2.25 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.11

3.44 BlocksContext 2.11

1.88 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.57

83% Save rateContext 69%

60% PossessionIn forecast 49%

500 PassesContext 423

432 Accurate passesContext 341

86% Pass accuracyContext 81%

7.09 Team ratingContext 7.03

10.50 FoulsContext 11.10

11.60 Fouls sufferedContext 10.60

1.20 Yellow cardsContext 2.10

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Arsenal

Rest7.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Crystal Palace

Rest8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Arsenal	Crystal Palace
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7.9Premier League 2025-2026, 18 Oct	8Premier League 2025-2026, 18 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	0 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 3	0 / 1 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	6	6

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Arsenal Confirmed XI

4-3-3

1David Raya(G)

33R. Calafiori 6Gabriel Magalhães 2W. Saliba 12J. Timber

41D. Rice 36Martín Zubimendi 10E. Eze

19L. Trossard 14V. Gyökeres 7B. Saka

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Crystal Palace Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

1D. Henderson(G)

6A. Guéhi 5M. Lacroix 26Chris Richards

3T. Mitchell 18Daichi Kamada 20A. Wharton 2D. Muñoz

10Yeremy Pino 7I. Sarr

14J. Mateta

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Arsenal Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Crystal Palace Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Arsenal-1.2 pp
Draw+0.4 pp
Crystal Palace+0.8 pp

Home / Away this season

Arsenal · Home 2.50points per game · 4 home games

W-D-L: 3-1-0
Scored: 2.75
Conceded: 0.25

Crystal Palace · Away 1.75points per game · 4 away games

W-D-L: 2-1-1
Scored: 1.50
Conceded: 0.75

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 3 this season

Opponent	Arsenal	Crystal Palace
West Ham	W 2–0 H	W 2–1 A
Nottingham Forest	W 3–0 H	D 1–1 H
Liverpool	L 0–1 A	W 2–1 H
Points	6 of 9 · 2.00 per game	7 of 9 · 2.33 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings

6 Arsenal wins3 draws1 Crystal Palace wins

Goals per game2.40 – 1.00 Over 2.570% Both scored50% Clean sheets40% · 20%

23 Apr 2025Arsenal2–2Crystal Palace
21 Dec 2024Crystal Palace1–5Arsenal
20 Jan 2024Arsenal5–0Crystal Palace
21 Aug 2023Crystal Palace0–1Arsenal
19 Mar 2023Arsenal4–1Crystal Palace
5 Aug 2022Crystal Palace0–2Arsenal

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Arsenal	Crystal Palace	Forecast
Scored per game	1.88	1.50
Conceded per game	0.38	1.00
Match goals	2.25	2.50	3.21
Over 1.5	63%	75%
Over 2.5	38%	63%	62%
Over 3.5	13%	13%
Both teams scored	25%	63%	55%
Clean sheets	63%	38%
Failed to score	13%	25%
Games	8	8

	Arsenal	Crystal Palace	Forecast
Scored per game	1.88	1.50
Conceded per game	0.38	1.00
Match goals	2.25	2.50	3.21
Over 1.5	63%	75%
Over 2.5	38%	63%	62%
Over 3.5	13%	13%
Both teams scored	25%	63%	55%
Clean sheets	63%	38%
Failed to score	13%	25%
Games	8	8

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Arsenal	Crystal Palace	League
Corners
Corners won	7.88	3.63
Corners conceded	3.50	6.00
Match total	11.38	9.63	9.81
Over 8.5	75% 6/8	50% 4/8
Over 9.5	75% 6/8	50% 4/8
Over 10.5	75% 6/8	50% 4/8
Cards
Cards	1.13	2.25
Opponent cards	1.50	2.50
Match total	2.63	4.75	3.73
Over 3.5	25% 2/8	88% 7/8
Over 4.5	13% 1/8	75% 6/8

	Arsenal	Crystal Palace	League
Corners
Corners won	6.70	4.20
Corners conceded	3.60	4.30
Match total	10.30	8.50	9.81
Over 8.5	60% 6/10	40% 4/10
Over 9.5	60% 6/10	40% 4/10
Over 10.5	60% 6/10	30% 3/10
Cards
Cards	1.20	2.20
Opponent cards	1.50	2.40
Match total	2.70	4.60	3.73
Over 3.5	30% 3/10	90% 9/10
Over 4.5	0% 0/10	60% 6/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Thomas Bramall 90 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.64league 3.62

Red cards0.16league 0.12

Cards 5+39%league 40%

Fouls22.2league 22.0

Penalties0.16league 0.20

Home wins49%league 49%

Arsenal

No previous matches with this referee.

Crystal Palace6 with this referee

Record3-3-0 Cards · opp.1.7 · 2.3 Pens for · against1 · 0 Reds1

D13 Sep 25H · Sunderland0–01
W18 Jan 25A · West Ham2–00
D26 Dec 24A · Bournemouth0–02
W11 May 24A · Wolves3–14
W24 Apr 24H · Newcastle2–03

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.