Arsenal vs Everton – 14 Mar 2026

Premier League Gameweek 30 Sat, Mar 14 · 17:30 Emirates Stadium, London

Arsenal 1st · 67 pts · 30 played DDWWW

2–0Full time

Everton 8th · 43 pts · 29 played WLLWW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Arsenal were clear favourites.

Arsenal were the stronger side on L90 Strength (94 vs 71). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Everton. Arsenal had 9.9 days of rest, Everton 10.9 and had to travel 286 km.

Away travel286 kmRest days9.9 · 10.9Matches / 14d2 · 1

Arsenal64%

Draw22%

Everton14%

Expected goals 2.00 – 0.84

Arsenal72%

Draw18%

Everton10%

Expected goals 2.34 – 0.76

Arsenal65%

Draw21%

Everton14%

Expected goals 2.02 – 0.83

Arsenal57%

Draw24%

Everton19%

Expected goals 1.78 – 0.94

Arsenal62%

Draw23%

Everton15%

Expected goals 1.87 – 0.80

Over 2.5 54% Both score 50% Likeliest score 2–0

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (London)

No weather data yet

RefereeAndy Madley

Cards per match 3.5
Penalties per match 0.16
Matches 133

Team strength

Arsenal

Everton

94 L90 StrengthIn forecast 71

94 Current StrengthIn forecast 67

86 AttackIn forecast 61

95 DefenceIn forecast 66

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Arsenal

Attack—

Defense risk—

Everton

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Arsenal

Everton

1.97 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.17

0.73 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.14

1.67 xGVia Att/Def 1.20

0.71 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.43

+0.30 Goals minus xGContext -0.03

90% Scored inContext 72%

47% Clean sheetsContext 34%

14.30 ShotsContext 11.07

4.87 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.41

34% On target shareContext 31%

10.77 Shots in the boxContext 7.54

75% Box shareContext 67%

14% ConversionContext 11%

2.15 OffsidesContext 2.00

7.77 Shots allowedContext 13.24

2.76 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.18

3.00 BlocksContext 4.24

2.14 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.89

76% Save rateContext 68%

56% PossessionIn forecast 44%

471 PassesContext 387

397 Accurate passesContext 309

84% Pass accuracyContext 80%

7.04 Team ratingContext 6.96

10.17 FoulsContext 10.59

10.77 Fouls sufferedContext 11.83

1.33 Yellow cardsContext 1.86

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

This league season, per match · 30 and 29 games

2.30 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.30

1.10 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00

1.62 xGVia Att/Def 1.38

0.72 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.22

+0.68 Goals minus xGContext -0.08

100% Scored inContext 90%

30% Clean sheetsContext 20%

12.80 ShotsContext 12.00

4.80 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.80

38% On target shareContext 32%

9.30 Shots in the boxContext 8.00

75% Box shareContext 62%

18% ConversionContext 11%

2.00 OffsidesContext 2.00

7.40 Shots allowedContext 13.00

2.70 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.00

2.38 BlocksContext 3.50

2.43 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.90

81% Save rateContext 73%

54% PossessionIn forecast 47%

440 PassesContext 428

363 Accurate passesContext 349

83% Pass accuracyContext 81%

6.99 Team ratingContext 7.02

10.40 FoulsContext 12.00

10.90 Fouls sufferedContext 13.70

1.40 Yellow cardsContext 1.80

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.20

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Arsenal

Rest9.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km143 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Everton

Rest10.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel286 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Arsenal	Everton
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	9.9Premier League 2025-2026, 4 Mar	10.9Premier League 2025-2026, 3 Mar
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	286 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	143 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 2 / 4	0 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	27.8	7

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Arsenal Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1David Raya(G)

33R. Calafiori 6Gabriel Magalhães 2W. Saliba 12J. Timber

41D. Rice 36Martín Zubimendi

20C. Madueke 10E. Eze 7B. Saka

29K. Havertz

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Everton Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1J. Pickford(G)

16V. Mykolenko 5M. Keane 15J. O'Brien 37J. Garner

27I. Gueye 42T. Iroegbunam

10I. Ndiaye 22K. Dewsbury-Hall 7D. McNeil

9Beto

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Arsenal Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Everton Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Arsenal-0.6 pp
Draw+0.2 pp
Everton+0.4 pp

Home / Away this season

Arsenal · Home 2.50points per game · 14 home games

W-D-L: 11-2-1
Scored: 2.36
Conceded: 0.64

Everton · Away 1.71points per game · 14 away games

W-D-L: 7-3-4
Scored: 1.14
Conceded: 1.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

Opponent	Arsenal	Everton
Brighton	W 1–0 AW 2–1 H	D 1–1 AW 2–0 H
Chelsea	W 2–1 HD 1–1 A	L 0–2 A
Tottenham	W 4–1 AW 4–1 H	L 0–3 H
Wolves	D 2–2 AW 2–1 H	D 1–1 HW 3–2 A
Brentford	D 1–1 AW 2–0 H	L 2–4 H
Sunderland	W 3–0 HD 2–2 A	D 1–1 A
Leeds	W 4–0 AW 5–0 H	D 1–1 HL 0–1 A
Manchester United	L 2–3 HW 1–0 A	L 0–1 HW 1–0 A
Nottingham Forest	D 0–0 AW 3–0 H	W 2–0 AW 3–0 H
Liverpool	D 0–0 HL 0–1 A	L 1–2 A
Bournemouth	W 3–2 A	L 1–2 HW 1–0 A
Aston Villa	W 4–1 HL 1–2 A	W 1–0 AD 0–0 H
Burnley	W 2–0 A	W 2–0 HD 0–0 A
Crystal Palace	W 1–0 H	W 2–1 H
Fulham	W 1–0 A	W 2–1 AW 2–0 H
West Ham	W 2–0 H	D 1–1 H
Newcastle	W 2–1 A	W 3–2 AL 1–4 H
Manchester City	D 1–1 H	L 0–2 A
Points	64 of 87 · 2.21 per game	43 of 84 · 1.54 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 11 meetings

5 Arsenal wins2 draws3 Everton wins

Goals per game1.50 – 0.70 Over 2.540% Both scored40% Clean sheets40% · 30%

20 Dec 2025Everton0–1Arsenal
5 Apr 2025Everton1–1Arsenal
14 Dec 2024Arsenal0–0Everton
19 May 2024Arsenal2–1Everton
17 Sep 2023Everton0–1Arsenal
1 Mar 2023Arsenal4–0Everton

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Arsenal	Everton	Forecast
Scored per game	1.97	1.17
Conceded per game	0.73	1.14
Match goals	2.70	2.31	2.84
Over 1.5	73%	72%
Over 2.5	53%	34%	54%
Over 3.5	30%	14%
Both teams scored	50%	45%	50%
Clean sheets	47%	34%
Failed to score	10%	28%
Games	30	29

	Arsenal	Everton	Forecast
Scored per game	1.90	1.40
Conceded per game	0.80	1.30
Match goals	2.70	2.70	2.84
Over 1.5	70%	80%
Over 2.5	60%	40%	54%
Over 3.5	40%	20%
Both teams scored	50%	70%	50%
Clean sheets	50%	20%
Failed to score	20%	10%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Arsenal	Everton	League
Corners
Corners won	5.79	4.45
Corners conceded	3.50	4.97
Match total	9.29	9.42	9.99
Over 8.5	50% 14/28	69% 20/29
Over 9.5	46% 13/28	41% 12/29
Over 10.5	43% 12/28	34% 10/29
Cards
Cards	1.33	2.00
Opponent cards	1.97	1.79
Match total	3.30	3.79	3.92
Over 3.5	43% 13/30	52% 15/29
Over 4.5	23% 7/30	45% 13/29

	Arsenal	Everton	League
Corners
Corners won	5.33	4.78
Corners conceded	3.67	4.56
Match total	9.00	9.34	9.99
Over 8.5	44% 4/9	78% 7/9
Over 9.5	44% 4/9	33% 3/9
Over 10.5	33% 3/9	22% 2/9
Cards
Cards	1.40	2.10
Opponent cards	2.40	2.30
Match total	3.80	4.40	3.92
Over 3.5	40% 4/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	60% 6/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Andy Madley 133 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.35league 3.77

Red cards0.13league 0.12

Cards 5+29%league 39%

Fouls23.0league 21.6

Penalties0.16league 0.22

Home wins46%league 42%

Arsenal4 with this referee

Record1-2-1 Cards · opp.2.3 · 2.8 Pens for · against0 · 0

D26 Feb 25A · Nottingham Forest0–01
L14 May 23H · Brighton0–31
D3 Jan 23H · Newcastle0–04
W19 Mar 22A · Aston Villa1–03

Everton16 with this referee

Record7-3-6 Cards · opp.1.8 · 1.8 Pens for · against1 · 0 Reds1

L10 Feb 26H · Bournemouth1–22
W8 Nov 25H · Fulham2–02
D22 Feb 25H · Manchester United2–24
L2 Nov 24A · Southampton0–12
W28 Sep 24H · Crystal Palace2–12

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.