Arsenal
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Arsenal were clear favourites.
Arsenal were the stronger side on L90 Strength (94 vs 54). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Sunderland. Arsenal had 7 days of rest, Sunderland 4.8 and had to travel 387 km.
Away travel387 kmRest days7 · 4.8Matches / 14d2 · 1
Arsenal81%
Draw13%
Sunderland6%
Arsenal81%
Draw13%
Sunderland6%
Arsenal81%
Draw13%
Sunderland6%
Arsenal75%
Draw16%
Sunderland9%
Arsenal79%
Draw15%
Sunderland7%
Over 2.5 66%
Both score 45%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (London)
No weather data yet
RefereeSamuel Barrott
- Cards per match 3.7
- Penalties per match 0.25
- Matches 75
Team strength
Arsenal
Sunderland
94
L90 StrengthIn forecast
54
94
Current StrengthIn forecast
57
86
AttackIn forecast
62
95
DefenceIn forecast
59
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisSunderland
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
ArsenalSunderland
1.92
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.13
0.71
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.08
1.78
xGVia Att/Def
0.92
0.69
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.40
+0.14
Goals minus xGContext
+0.21
88%
Scored inContext
67%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
33%
14.88
ShotsContext
9.83
5.04
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.43
34%
On target shareContext
34%
11.33
Shots in the boxContext
7.33
75%
Box shareContext
70%
13%
ConversionContext
11%
2.06
OffsidesContext
1.89
7.71
Shots allowedContext
14.04
2.63
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.57
3.10
BlocksContext
4.17
1.94
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.45
73%
Save rateContext
74%
58%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
486
PassesContext
375
413
Accurate passesContext
297
85%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
7.04
Team ratingContext
6.89
10.04
FoulsContext
10.13
10.50
Fouls sufferedContext
10.50
1.38
Yellow cardsContext
2.04
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.08
2.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
2.21
xGVia Att/Def
0.99
1.00
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.40
+0.29
Goals minus xGContext
+0.01
80%
Scored inContext
70%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
16.30
ShotsContext
11.00
5.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
34%
On target shareContext
36%
12.40
Shots in the boxContext
7.67
75%
Box shareContext
68%
15%
ConversionContext
9%
2.33
OffsidesContext
1.67
9.40
Shots allowedContext
12.20
2.88
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.11
3.67
BlocksContext
3.50
2.17
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.78
68%
Save rateContext
68%
55%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
447
PassesContext
413
375
Accurate passesContext
332
84%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
7.00
Team ratingContext
6.90
11.20
FoulsContext
11.60
10.50
Fouls sufferedContext
10.90
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
2.60
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Arsenal
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km544 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Sunderland
Rest4.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel387 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Arsenal |
Sunderland |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Premier League 2025-2026, 31 Jan | 4.8Premier League 2025-2026, 2 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 387 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 544 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5.2 | 4.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Arsenal
Confirmed XI
1David Raya(G)
33R. Calafiori
6Gabriel Magalhães
2W. Saliba
12J. Timber
41D. Rice
36Martín Zubimendi
29K. Havertz
19L. Trossard
9G. de Jesus
20C. Madueke
Sunderland
Confirmed XI
22R. Roefs(G)
17Reinildo
15O. Alderete
5D. Ballard
20N. Mukiele
28E. Le Fée
27N. Sadiki
7C. Talbi
19M. Diarra
32T. Hume
9B. Brobbey
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Arsenal
Scores -0.08 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Sunderland
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.08 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Arsenal+0.1 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Sunderland-0.1 pp
Home / Away this season
Arsenal · Home
2.42points per game · 12 home games
- W-D-L
- 9-2-1
- Scored
- 2.33
- Conceded
- 0.67
Sunderland · Away
0.83points per game · 12 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-4-6
- Scored
- 0.50
- Conceded
- 1.42
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Arsenal | Sunderland |
|---|---|---|
| Leeds | W 4–0 AW 5–0 H | D 1–1 H |
| Manchester United | L 2–3 HW 1–0 A | L 0–2 A |
| Nottingham Forest | D 0–0 AW 3–0 H | W 1–0 A |
| Liverpool | D 0–0 HL 0–1 A | D 1–1 A |
| Bournemouth | W 3–2 A | W 3–2 H |
| Aston Villa | W 4–1 HL 1–2 A | D 1–1 H |
| Brighton | W 2–1 H | D 0–0 A |
| Everton | W 1–0 A | D 1–1 H |
| Wolves | W 2–1 H | W 2–0 H |
| Brentford | W 2–0 H | L 0–3 AW 2–1 H |
| Chelsea | D 1–1 A | W 2–1 A |
| Tottenham | W 4–1 H | D 1–1 A |
| Burnley | W 2–0 A | W 3–0 HL 0–2 A |
| Crystal Palace | W 1–0 H | W 2–1 HD 0–0 A |
| Fulham | W 1–0 A | L 0–1 A |
| West Ham | W 2–0 H | L 1–3 AW 3–0 H |
| Newcastle | W 2–1 A | W 1–0 H |
| Manchester City | D 1–1 H | D 0–0 HL 0–3 A |
| Points | 52 of 69 · 2.26 per game | 35 of 69 · 1.52 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
0 Arsenal wins1 draws0 Sunderland wins
Goals per game2.00 – 2.00
Over 2.5100%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 8 Nov 2025Sunderland2–2Arsenal
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Arsenal | Sunderland | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.92 | 1.13 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.71 | 1.08 | |
| Match goals | 2.63 | 2.21 | 3.42 |
| Over 1.5 | 71% | 75% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 42% | 66% |
| Over 3.5 | 29% | 13% | |
| Both teams scored | 46% | 46% | 45% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 13% | 33% | |
| Games | 24 | 24 |
| Arsenal | Sunderland | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.90 | 0.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 2.90 | 2.10 | 3.42 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 50% | 66% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% | 45% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Arsenal | Sunderland | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.23 | 3.46 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.32 | 4.71 | |
| Match total | 9.55 | 8.17 | 10.00 |
| Over 8.5 | 55% 12/22 | 46% 11/24 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 11/22 | 38% 9/24 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 11/22 | 29% 7/24 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.38 | 2.13 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.71 | 1.88 | |
| Match total | 3.09 | 4.01 | 3.86 |
| Over 3.5 | 42% 10/24 | 54% 13/24 | |
| Over 4.5 | 17% 4/24 | 46% 11/24 | |
| Arsenal | Sunderland | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 7.50 | 3.22 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.00 | 4.67 | |
| Match total | 11.50 | 7.89 | 10.00 |
| Over 8.5 | 88% 7/8 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 75% 6/8 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 75% 6/8 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.60 | 2.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.70 | 2.10 | |
| Match total | 3.30 | 4.70 | 3.86 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Samuel Barrott 75 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.64league 3.71
Red cards0.07league 0.12
Cards 5+31%league 38%
Fouls20.3league 21.3
Penalties0.25league 0.20
Home wins37%league 45%
Arsenal5 with this referee
Record5-0-0
Cards · opp.1.2 · 2.4
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W20 Dec 25A · Everton1–02
- W4 Dec 24H · Manchester United2–01
- W28 Sep 24H · Leicester4–22
- W4 Mar 24A · Sheffield Utd6–00
- W5 Dec 23A · Luton4–31
Sunderland3 with this referee
Record1-1-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
Reds2
- D21 Sep 25H · Aston Villa1–13
- W29 Sep 23A · Sheffield Wednesday3–00
- L6 Aug 23H · Ipswich1–23
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Arsenal24 games · scored 46 · conceded 17
4
2
0-15
4
16-30
9
4
31-45
12
3
46-60
6
1
61-75
11
7
76-90
Sunderland24 games · scored 27 · conceded 26
1
6
0-15
4
4
16-30
4
4
31-45
3
3
46-60
8
5
61-75
7
4
76-90
Arsenal10 games · scored 25 · conceded 11
5
3
0-15
4
1
16-30
3
1
31-45
5
1
46-60
4
1
61-75
4
4
76-90
Sunderland10 games · scored 10 · conceded 10
1
1
0-15
2
4
16-30
2
1
31-45
1
1
46-60
3
2
61-75
1
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
