Arsenal
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Arsenal86.8%fair odds 1.15
Draw9.3%fair odds 10.73
Wolves3.9%fair odds 25.60
Expected goals3.30 – 0.65total 3.95
Likeliest score3–011.6%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Wolves
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Arsenal ↓ · Wolves → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 10.5 | 6.8 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 11.6 | 7.5 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 9.5 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 6.3 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 6.1 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Arsenal goals, columns Wolves goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 3–011.6%8.65
- 2–010.5%9.52
- 4–09.5%10.49
- 3–17.5%13.34
- 2–16.8%14.67
- 5–06.3%15.91
- 4–16.2%16.17
- 1–06.2%16.25
- 1–14.4%22.97
- 5–14.1%24.52
Winning margin
50.6%
Arsenal by 3+
fair 1.98
20.3%
Arsenal by 2
fair 4.92
15.9%
Arsenal by 1
fair 6.29
9.3%
Draw
fair 10.73
2.9%
Wolves by 1
fair 33.91
0.8%
Wolves by 2
fair 127.19
0.2%
Wolves by 3+
fair 585.45
Goal distribution
Total goals
2%0
7%1
15%2
20%3
20%4
36%5+
Arsenal goals
4%0
12%1
20%2
22%3
42%4+
Wolves goals
52%0
34%1
11%2
2%3
0%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal win | 86.8% | 84.9% | +1.9 pp |
| Draw | 9.3% | 10.7% | -1.4 pp |
| Wolves win | 3.9% | 4.4% | -0.5 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 75.4% | 70.6% | +4.8 pp |
| Both teams score | 46.2% | 43.7% | +2.4 pp |
| Expected goals Arsenal | 3.30 | 3.04 | +0.26 |
| Expected goals Wolves | 0.65 | 0.61 | +0.04 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Arsenal win86.8%1.15
- Draw9.3%10.73
- Wolves win3.9%25.60
- Double chance Arsenal or draw96.1%1.04
- Double chance Arsenal or Wolves90.7%1.10
- Double chance Wolves or draw13.2%7.56
- Draw no bet Arsenal95.7%1.05
- Draw no bet Wolves4.3%23.22
Goals
- Over 0.597.8%1.02
- Over 1.590.7%1.10
- Over 2.575.4%1.33
- Over 3.555.6%1.80
- Over 4.536.1%2.77
- Under 1.59.3%10.71
- Under 2.524.6%4.06
- Under 3.544.4%2.25
Both teams to score
- Yes46.2%2.17
- No53.8%1.86
- Yes and over 2.541.8%2.39
- Arsenal win and yes36.7%2.73
- Draw and yes7.2%13.95
- Wolves win and yes2.4%42.36
Team goals
- Arsenal over 0.596.3%1.04
- Arsenal over 1.584.1%1.19
- Arsenal over 2.564.0%1.56
- Wolves over 0.547.7%2.09
- Wolves over 1.513.8%7.23
- Wolves over 2.52.8%35.45
- Arsenal clean sheet52.3%1.91
- Wolves clean sheet3.7%27.06
- Arsenal win to nil50.1%2.00
- Wolves win to nil1.5%64.73
Handicap
- Arsenal −1.570.9%1.41
- Arsenal −2.550.6%1.98
- Wolves +1.529.1%3.44
- Wolves +2.549.4%2.02
- Wolves −1.51.0%104.49
- Arsenal +1.599.0%1.01
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Premier League 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored153
Favourite won55.6%
Avg chance given to result40.5%
1X2 Brier0.589
Over 2.5 called right56.2%
BTTS called right52.9%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 22 | 38.2% | 50.0% |
| 40–50% | 58 | 44.9% | 48.3% |
| 50–60% | 42 | 54.3% | 57.1% |
| 60–70% | 17 | 64.2% | 76.5% |
| 70–80% | 14 | 73.3% | 64.3% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 123 of 153 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5862 | 0.5703 |
| Avg chance given to result | 40.8% | 41.9% |
| Favourite won | 56.1% | 55.3% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 123 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 153 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.