Arsenal vs Wolves – 13 Dec 2025

Premier League Gameweek 16 Sat, Dec 13 · 20:00 Emirates Stadium, London

Arsenal 1st · 33 pts · 15 played DWDWL

2–1Full time

Wolves 20th · 2 pts · 15 played LLLLL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Arsenal were clear favourites.

Arsenal were the stronger side on L90 Strength (94 vs 39). Absences weigh more on Arsenal. Arsenal had 7.3 days of rest, Wolves 5 and had to travel 182 km.

Away travel182 kmRest days7.3 · 5Matches / 14d3 · 3

Arsenal87%

Draw9%

Wolves4%

Expected goals 3.30 – 0.65

Arsenal86%

Draw10%

Wolves4%

Expected goals 3.09 – 0.58

Arsenal88%

Draw9%

Wolves3%

Expected goals 3.35 – 0.62

Arsenal82%

Draw12%

Wolves6%

Expected goals 2.94 – 0.73

Arsenal85%

Draw11%

Wolves4%

Expected goals 3.04 – 0.61

Over 2.5 75% Both score 46% Likeliest score 3–0

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (London)

No weather data yet

RefereeRobert Jones

Cards per match 4.1
Penalties per match 0.24
Matches 132

Team strength

Arsenal

Wolves

94 L90 StrengthIn forecast 39

94 Current StrengthIn forecast 44

86 AttackIn forecast 41

95 DefenceIn forecast 46

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Arsenal

Attack—

Defense risk—

Wolves

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Arsenal

Wolves

1.87 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.53

0.60 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.20

1.75 xGVia Att/Def 0.88

0.63 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.57

+0.12 Goals minus xGContext -0.35

93% Scored inContext 40%

53% Clean sheetsContext 0%

14.47 ShotsContext 9.00

5.33 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.07

37% On target shareContext 32%

10.80 Shots in the boxContext 5.80

74% Box shareContext 63%

13% ConversionContext 6%

2.30 OffsidesContext 2.10

7.73 Shots allowedContext 13.93

2.83 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.00

3.50 BlocksContext 5.00

2.27 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.00

78% Save rateContext 59%

59% PossessionIn forecast 47%

493 PassesContext 399

420 Accurate passesContext 321

85% Pass accuracyContext 80%

7.07 Team ratingContext 6.66

10.27 FoulsContext 14.53

10.80 Fouls sufferedContext 9.93

1.33 Yellow cardsContext 2.07

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.07

This league season, per match · 15 and 15 games

2.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.50

0.70 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.10

1.91 xGVia Att/Def 0.88

0.66 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.58

+0.29 Goals minus xGContext -0.38

100% Scored inContext 40%

50% Clean sheetsContext 0%

13.70 ShotsContext 8.40

7.10 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 2.89

52% On target shareContext 31%

9.80 Shots in the boxContext 5.20

72% Box shareContext 61%

16% ConversionContext 6%

2.33 OffsidesContext 1.86

8.10 Shots allowedContext 14.80

3.13 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.50

3.25 BlocksContext 5.20

2.57 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.40

78% Save rateContext 62%

56% PossessionIn forecast 46%

460 PassesContext 391

387 Accurate passesContext 316

84% Pass accuracyContext 81%

7.07 Team ratingContext 6.68

10.56 FoulsContext 14.60

13.30 Fouls sufferedContext 10.00

2.00 Yellow cardsContext 2.10

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Arsenal

Rest7.3 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel0 km325 km in 14d

Schedule load15%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Wolves

Rest5 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel182 km38 km in 14d

Schedule load15%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Arsenal	Wolves
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 15	Low · 15
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7.3Premier League 2025-2026, 6 Dec	5Premier League 2025-2026, 8 Dec
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	182 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	325 km	38 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 3 / 4	1 / 3 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	7	6.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Arsenal Confirmed XI

4-3-3

1David Raya(G)

5P. Hincapié 2W. Saliba 12J. Timber 4B. White

41D. Rice 36Martín Zubimendi 10E. Eze

11Gabriel Martinelli 14V. Gyökeres 7B. Saka

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Wolves Confirmed XI

3-5-2

31S. Johnstone(G)

24Toti Gomes 12E. Agbadou 15Y. Mosquera

6D. Møller Wolfe 37L. Krejčí 7André 8João Gomes 2M. Doherty

11H. Hwang 9J. Strand Larsen

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Arsenal Scores -0.09 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Wolves Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Arsenal-1.0 pp
Draw+0.6 pp
Wolves+0.4 pp

Home / Away this season

Arsenal · Home 2.71points per game · 7 home games

W-D-L: 6-1-0
Scored: 2.57
Conceded: 0.29

Wolves · Away 0.14points per game · 7 away games

W-D-L: 0-1-6
Scored: 0.14
Conceded: 1.71

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 12 this season

Opponent	Arsenal	Wolves
Aston Villa	L 1–2 A	L 0–1 A
Chelsea	D 1–1 A	L 0–3 A
Tottenham	W 4–1 H	D 1–1 A
Sunderland	D 2–2 A	L 0–2 A
Burnley	W 2–0 A	L 2–3 H
Crystal Palace	W 1–0 H	L 0–2 H
Fulham	W 1–0 A	L 0–3 A
Newcastle	W 2–1 A	L 0–1 A
Manchester City	D 1–1 H	L 0–4 H
Nottingham Forest	W 3–0 H	L 0–1 H
Leeds	W 5–0 H	L 1–3 H
Manchester United	W 1–0 A	L 1–4 H
Points	27 of 36 · 2.25 per game	1 of 36 · 0.08 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings

8 Arsenal wins0 draws2 Wolves wins

Goals per game1.90 – 0.60 Over 2.550% Both scored40% Clean sheets60% · 0%

25 Jan 2025Wolves0–1Arsenal
17 Aug 2024Arsenal2–0Wolves
20 Apr 2024Wolves0–2Arsenal
2 Dec 2023Arsenal2–1Wolves
28 May 2023Arsenal5–0Wolves
12 Nov 2022Wolves0–2Arsenal

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Arsenal	Wolves	Forecast
Scored per game	1.87	0.53
Conceded per game	0.60	2.20
Match goals	2.47	2.73	3.95
Over 1.5	73%	73%
Over 2.5	40%	47%	75%
Over 3.5	20%	33%
Both teams scored	40%	40%	46%
Clean sheets	53%	0%
Failed to score	7%	60%
Games	15	15

	Arsenal	Wolves	Forecast
Scored per game	1.80	0.50
Conceded per game	0.70	2.10
Match goals	2.50	2.60	3.95
Over 1.5	80%	80%
Over 2.5	40%	40%	75%
Over 3.5	20%	20%
Both teams scored	50%	40%	46%
Clean sheets	50%	0%
Failed to score	0%	60%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Arsenal	Wolves	League
Corners
Corners won	5.93	2.86
Corners conceded	3.27	6.86
Match total	9.20	9.72	10.01
Over 8.5	47% 7/15	71% 10/14
Over 9.5	47% 7/15	64% 9/14
Over 10.5	47% 7/15	43% 6/14
Cards
Cards	1.33	2.20
Opponent cards	1.47	1.53
Match total	2.80	3.73	3.76
Over 3.5	27% 4/15	60% 9/15
Over 4.5	13% 2/15	47% 7/15

	Arsenal	Wolves	League
Corners
Corners won	4.30	2.70
Corners conceded	2.60	7.20
Match total	6.90	9.90	10.01
Over 8.5	20% 2/10	70% 7/10
Over 9.5	20% 2/10	70% 7/10
Over 10.5	10% 1/10	40% 4/10
Cards
Cards	2.00	2.20
Opponent cards	1.60	1.60
Match total	3.60	3.80	3.76
Over 3.5	40% 4/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Robert Jones 132 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.98league 3.63

Red cards0.11league 0.12

Cards 5+42%league 39%

Fouls22.9league 22.0

Penalties0.24league 0.20

Home wins46%league 49%

Arsenal6 with this referee

Record3-2-1 Cards · opp.1.7 · 2.7 Pens for · against1 · 1 Reds1

L19 Oct 24A · Bournemouth0–22
W9 Mar 24H · Brentford2–12
D24 Sep 23H · Tottenham2–23
W2 May 23H · Chelsea3–10
D23 Oct 22A · Southampton1–11

Wolves12 with this referee

Record5-2-5 Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.9 Pens for · against1 · 2 Reds1

L18 Oct 25A · Sunderland0–20
W20 Apr 25A · Manchester United1–03
W15 Mar 25A · Southampton2–10
W23 Nov 24A · Fulham4–10
L4 Nov 23A · Sheffield Utd1–23

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.