AS Roma vs Bologna – 19 Mar 2026

UEFA Europa League Round of 16 Thu, Mar 19 · 20:00 Stadio Olimpico, Roma

AS Roma 11th · 1 pts · 1 played D

First leg1–1 3–4Full time

Bologna 12th · 1 pts · 1 played D

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

AS Roma were slight favourites.

AS Roma were the stronger side on L90 Strength (67 vs 52). AS Roma had 4.1 days of rest, Bologna 4.3 and had to travel 305 km.

Away travel305 kmRest days4.1 · 4.3Matches / 14d3 · 3

AS Roma51%

Draw27%

Bologna22%

Expected goals 1.55 – 0.94

AS Roma53%

Draw25%

Bologna22%

Expected goals 1.73 – 1.03

AS Roma51%

Draw27%

Bologna22%

Expected goals 1.53 – 0.93

AS Roma44%

Draw28%

Bologna28%

Expected goals 1.38 – 1.06

AS Roma50%

Draw28%

Bologna22%

Expected goals 1.48 – 0.90

Over 2.5 46% Both score 49% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Roma)

No weather data yet

Referee · RomaniaIstvan Kovacs

Cards per match 4.5
Penalties per match 0.15
Matches 26

Team strength

AS Roma

Bologna

67 L90 StrengthIn forecast 52

71 Current StrengthIn forecast 47

72 AttackIn forecast 35

75 DefenceIn forecast 48

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

AS Roma

Attack—

Defense risk—

Bologna

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

AS Roma

Bologna

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

1.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.90

1.30 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.80

1.40 xGVia Att/Def 0.95

1.03 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.95

+0.10 Goals minus xGContext -0.05

90% Scored inContext 80%

20% Clean sheetsContext 50%

11.20 ShotsContext 12.80

3.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.40

31% On target shareContext 27%

8.13 Shots in the boxContext 7.80

75% Box shareContext 62%

13% ConversionContext 7%

2.33 OffsidesContext 1.89

9.50 Shots allowedContext 7.90

4.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.10

2.75 BlocksContext 2.44

2.88 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.25

66% Save rateContext 64%

50% PossessionIn forecast 53%

423 PassesContext 405

348 Accurate passesContext 326

82% Pass accuracyContext 81%

6.85 Team ratingContext 6.88

14.90 FoulsContext 11.50

12.70 Fouls sufferedContext 13.90

1.80 Yellow cardsContext 1.80

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

AS Roma

Rest4.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel0 km2,443 km in 14d

Schedule load20%Moderate

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Bologna

Rest4.3 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel305 km121 km in 14d

Schedule load21%Moderate

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	AS Roma	Bologna
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Moderate · 20	Moderate · 21
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	4.1Serie A 2025-2026, 15 Mar	4.3Serie A 2025-2026, 15 Mar
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	305 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	2,443 km	121 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 3 / 5	1 / 3 / 6
Next matchdays after this one	2.9	2.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

AS Roma Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

99M. Svilar(G)

22Hermoso 5O. Ndicka 23G. Mancini

43Wesley 17K. Koné 4B. Cristante 19M. Çelik

92S. El Shaarawy 61N. Pisilli

14D. Malen

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Bologna Confirmed XI

4-3-3

13F. Ravaglia(G)

17João Mário 26J. Lucumí 41M. Vitík 20N. Zortea

4T. Pobega 8R. Freuler 19L. Ferguson

11J. Rowe 9S. Castro 10F. Bernardeschi

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

AS Roma Scores -0.05 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Bologna Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.07 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

AS Roma+0.3 pp
Draw-0.3 pp
Bologna+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

AS Roma · Home No home games yet this season.

Bologna · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings

2 AS Roma wins4 draws4 Bologna wins

Goals per game0.80 – 1.20 Over 2.530% Both scored40% Clean sheets40% · 40%

12 Mar 2026Bologna1–1AS Roma
23 Aug 2025AS Roma1–0Bologna
12 Jan 2025Bologna2–2AS Roma
10 Nov 2024AS Roma2–3Bologna
22 Apr 2024AS Roma1–3Bologna
17 Dec 2023Bologna2–0AS Roma

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	AS Roma	Bologna	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	1.00
Conceded per game	1.00	1.00
Match goals	2.00	2.00	2.50
Over 1.5	100%	100%
Over 2.5	0%	0%	46%
Over 3.5	0%	0%
Both teams scored	100%	100%	49%
Clean sheets	0%	0%
Failed to score	0%	0%
Games	1	1

	AS Roma	Bologna	Forecast
Scored per game	1.50	0.90
Conceded per game	1.30	0.80
Match goals	2.80	1.70	2.50
Over 1.5	90%	40%
Over 2.5	50%	30%	46%
Over 3.5	20%	0%
Both teams scored	70%	30%	49%
Clean sheets	20%	50%
Failed to score	10%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	AS Roma	Bologna	League
Corners
Corners won	3.00	7.00
Corners conceded	7.00	3.00
Match total	10.00	10.00	9.00
Over 8.5	100% 1/1	100% 1/1
Over 9.5	100% 1/1	100% 1/1
Over 10.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1
Cards
Cards	2.00	3.00
Opponent cards	3.00	2.00
Match total	5.00	5.00	4.40
Over 3.5	100% 1/1	100% 1/1
Over 4.5	100% 1/1	100% 1/1

	AS Roma	Bologna	League
Corners
Corners won	4.60	4.89
Corners conceded	3.50	4.89
Match total	8.10	9.78	9.00
Over 8.5	50% 5/10	67% 6/9
Over 9.5	40% 4/10	67% 6/9
Over 10.5	0% 0/10	56% 5/9
Cards
Cards	2.00	1.90
Opponent cards	2.20	1.50
Match total	4.20	3.40	4.40
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	40% 4/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Istvan Kovacs Romania · 26 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.31league 4.50

Red cards0.23league 0.42

Cards 5+54%league 67%

Fouls24.7league 26.7

Penalties0.15league 0.08

Home wins50%league 42%

AS Roma1 with this referee

Record1-0-0 Cards · opp.5.0 · 0.0 Pens for · against0 · 1

W11 Dec 25A · Celtic3–05

Bologna

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.