Aston Villa
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Arsenal were slight favourites.
Arsenal were the stronger side on L90 Strength (94 vs 84). Aston Villa come in after 4+ matches in 14 days. Aston Villa had 2.7 days of rest, Arsenal 2.7 and had to travel 163 km.
Away travel163 kmRest days2.7 · 2.7Matches / 14d4 · 3
Aston Villa27%
Draw24%
Arsenal49%
Aston Villa29%
Draw27%
Arsenal45%
Aston Villa25%
Draw24%
Arsenal50%
Aston Villa21%
Draw22%
Arsenal57%
Aston Villa30%
Draw26%
Arsenal43%
Over 2.5 59%
Both score 61%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Birmingham)
No weather data yet
RefereePeter Bankes
- Cards per match 4.2
- Penalties per match 0.15
- Matches 110
Team strength
Aston Villa
Arsenal
84
L90 StrengthIn forecast
94
82
Current StrengthIn forecast
94
83
AttackIn forecast
86
78
DefenceIn forecast
95
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisArsenal
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Aston VillaArsenal
1.43
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.93
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.50
1.02
xGVia Att/Def
1.74
1.35
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.52
+0.41
Goals minus xGContext
+0.19
64%
Scored inContext
93%
36%
Clean sheetsContext
57%
11.64
ShotsContext
14.43
4.14
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.07
36%
On target shareContext
35%
7.69
Shots in the boxContext
10.93
60%
Box shareContext
75%
12%
ConversionContext
13%
1.89
OffsidesContext
2.22
12.57
Shots allowedContext
7.21
3.64
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.55
4.21
BlocksContext
3.18
2.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.10
69%
Save rateContext
81%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
59%
434
PassesContext
496
367
Accurate passesContext
423
85%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.90
Team ratingContext
7.09
10.21
FoulsContext
10.43
14.57
Fouls sufferedContext
10.86
1.57
Yellow cardsContext
1.29
0.07
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.30
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.50
1.44
xGVia Att/Def
1.87
1.14
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.46
+0.46
Goals minus xGContext
+0.43
90%
Scored inContext
100%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
60%
13.60
ShotsContext
13.90
5.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.50
43%
On target shareContext
47%
8.60
Shots in the boxContext
10.80
62%
Box shareContext
78%
14%
ConversionContext
17%
1.29
OffsidesContext
2.14
11.20
Shots allowedContext
7.00
3.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
1.86
4.00
BlocksContext
2.75
2.78
Goalkeeper savesContext
1.33
69%
Save rateContext
73%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
57%
443
PassesContext
463
380
Accurate passesContext
391
86%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.94
Team ratingContext
7.08
10.56
FoulsContext
10.67
15.60
Fouls sufferedContext
13.30
1.10
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Aston Villa
Rest2.7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d4High congestion
Travel0 km735 km in 14d
Schedule load43%High
Arsenal
Rest2.7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel163 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load23%Moderate
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Aston Villa |
Arsenal |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | High · 43 | Moderate · 23 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | Yes | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 2.7Premier League 2025-2026, 3 Dec | 2.7Premier League 2025-2026, 3 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 163 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 735 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 2 / 4 / 5 | 2 / 3 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5.3 | 7.3 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Aston Villa
Confirmed XI
23E. Martínez(G)
22I. Maatsen
14Pau Torres
4E. Konsa
2M. Cash
24A. Onana
44B. Kamara
27M. Rogers
8Y. Tielemans
7J. McGinn
11O. Watkins
Arsenal
Confirmed XI
1David Raya(G)
33R. Calafiori
5P. Hincapié
12J. Timber
4B. White
41D. Rice
36Martín Zubimendi
8M. Ødegaard
10E. Eze
23Mikel Merino
7B. Saka
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Aston Villa
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Arsenal
Scores -0.05 · concedes +0.07 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Aston Villa+1.5 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Arsenal-1.4 pp
Home / Away this season
Aston Villa · Home
2.29points per game · 7 home games
- W-D-L
- 5-1-1
- Scored
- 1.57
- Conceded
- 0.71
Arsenal · Away
2.00points per game · 7 away games
- W-D-L
- 4-2-1
- Scored
- 1.29
- Conceded
- 0.71
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 10 this season
| Opponent | Aston Villa | Arsenal |
|---|---|---|
| Leeds | W 2–1 A | W 5–0 H |
| Liverpool | L 0–2 A | L 0–1 A |
| Manchester City | W 1–0 H | D 1–1 H |
| Tottenham | W 2–1 A | W 4–1 H |
| Burnley | W 2–1 H | W 2–0 A |
| Fulham | W 3–1 H | W 1–0 A |
| Sunderland | D 1–1 A | D 2–2 A |
| Crystal Palace | L 0–3 H | W 1–0 H |
| Brentford | L 0–1 A | W 2–0 H |
| Newcastle | D 0–0 H | W 2–1 A |
| Points | 17 of 30 · 1.70 per game | 23 of 30 · 2.30 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings
4 Aston Villa wins1 draws5 Arsenal wins
Goals per game1.30 – 1.40
Over 2.550%
Both scored40%
Clean sheets40% · 20%
- 18 Jan 2025Arsenal2–2Aston Villa
- 24 Aug 2024Aston Villa0–2Arsenal
- 14 Apr 2024Arsenal0–2Aston Villa
- 9 Dec 2023Aston Villa1–0Arsenal
- 18 Feb 2023Aston Villa2–4Arsenal
- 31 Aug 2022Arsenal2–1Aston Villa
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Aston Villa | Arsenal | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.43 | 1.93 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 0.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.43 | 2.43 | 3.08 |
| Over 1.5 | 64% | 71% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 36% | 59% |
| Over 3.5 | 21% | 21% | |
| Both teams scored | 43% | 36% | 61% |
| Clean sheets | 36% | 57% | |
| Failed to score | 36% | 7% | |
| Games | 14 | 14 |
| Aston Villa | Arsenal | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.90 | 1.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 0.60 | |
| Match goals | 2.90 | 2.40 | 3.08 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 30% | 59% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 61% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Aston Villa | Arsenal | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.36 | 6.14 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 3.29 | |
| Match total | 10.36 | 9.43 | 9.93 |
| Over 8.5 | 86% 12/14 | 50% 7/14 | |
| Over 9.5 | 79% 11/14 | 50% 7/14 | |
| Over 10.5 | 57% 8/14 | 50% 7/14 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.64 | 1.29 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.64 | 1.57 | |
| Match total | 4.28 | 2.86 | 3.76 |
| Over 3.5 | 79% 11/14 | 29% 4/14 | |
| Over 4.5 | 43% 6/14 | 14% 2/14 | |
| Aston Villa | Arsenal | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.33 | 4.90 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.89 | 3.20 | |
| Match total | 9.22 | 8.10 | 9.93 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 4/9 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.10 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.60 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 3.70 | 3.50 | 3.76 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Peter Bankes 110 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.10league 3.65
Red cards0.11league 0.11
Cards 5+45%league 39%
Fouls21.6league 22.0
Penalties0.15league 0.19
Home wins49%league 49%
Aston Villa10 with this referee
Record5-2-3
Cards · opp.2.1 · 2.4
Pens for · against0 · 1
Reds1
- W16 May 25H · Tottenham2–01
- D26 Jan 25H · West Ham1–12
- W21 Dec 24H · Manchester City2–13
- W13 May 23H · Tottenham2–13
- L6 Aug 22A · Bournemouth0–23
Arsenal7 with this referee
Record5-1-1
Cards · opp.1.1 · 1.4
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W2 Feb 25H · Manchester City5–12
- W1 Jan 25A · Brentford3–12
- W2 Dec 23H · Wolves2–11
- D11 Feb 23H · Brentford1–10
- L16 Apr 22A · Southampton0–11
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Aston Villa14 games · scored 20 · conceded 14
5
0-15
3
2
16-30
5
1
31-45
4
1
46-60
4
2
61-75
4
3
76-90
Arsenal14 games · scored 27 · conceded 7
3
1
0-15
16-30
8
2
31-45
7
2
46-60
2
61-75
7
2
76-90
Aston Villa10 games · scored 19 · conceded 10
1
3
0-15
3
1
16-30
6
2
31-45
3
1
46-60
2
1
61-75
4
2
76-90
Arsenal10 games · scored 23 · conceded 5
2
0-15
1
16-30
5
2
31-45
6
2
46-60
6
61-75
3
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
