Aston Villa
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Aston Villa were slight favourites.
Aston Villa were the stronger side on L90 Strength (80 vs 60). Aston Villa come in after 4+ matches in 14 days. Aston Villa had 2.8 days of rest, Burnley 8 and had to travel 148 km.
Away travel148 kmRest days2.8 · 8Matches / 14d4 · 1
Aston Villa55%
Draw24%
Burnley21%
Aston Villa58%
Draw23%
Burnley18%
Aston Villa56%
Draw23%
Burnley20%
Aston Villa48%
Draw25%
Burnley27%
Aston Villa58%
Draw23%
Burnley19%
Over 2.5 57%
Both score 57%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Birmingham)
No weather data yet
RefereeAndrew Kitchen
- Cards per match 3.2
- Penalties per match 0.11
- Matches 57
Team strength
Aston Villa
Burnley
80
L90 StrengthIn forecast
60
82
Current StrengthIn forecast
34
83
AttackIn forecast
27
78
DefenceIn forecast
25
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisBurnley
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Aston VillaBurnley
0.67
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.17
0.83
xGVia Att/Def
0.76
1.56
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.08
-0.16
Goals minus xGContext
+0.24
33%
Scored inContext
67%
33%
Clean sheetsContext
17%
10.17
ShotsContext
8.50
2.67
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.20
26%
On target shareContext
31%
7.00
Shots in the boxContext
5.17
57%
Box shareContext
59%
7%
ConversionContext
12%
2.25
OffsidesContext
2.00
12.67
Shots allowedContext
19.33
3.17
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.50
4.50
BlocksContext
6.33
2.17
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.00
68%
Save rateContext
73%
58%
PossessionIn forecast
33%
460
PassesContext
303
393
Accurate passesContext
226
85%
Pass accuracyContext
75%
6.76
Team ratingContext
6.61
10.33
FoulsContext
9.00
13.33
Fouls sufferedContext
8.83
1.67
Yellow cardsContext
1.67
0.17
Red cardsContext
0.00
0.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.80
0.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
0.87
xGVia Att/Def
1.20
1.49
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.60
+0.03
Goals minus xGContext
+0.60
50%
Scored inContext
80%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
10.10
ShotsContext
10.80
3.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.89
30%
On target shareContext
41%
6.89
Shots in the boxContext
6.90
60%
Box shareContext
63%
9%
ConversionContext
17%
2.13
OffsidesContext
2.44
13.90
Shots allowedContext
16.00
4.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.80
4.00
BlocksContext
5.30
3.60
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.60
82%
Save rateContext
75%
55%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
446
PassesContext
385
380
Accurate passesContext
310
85%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.88
Team ratingContext
6.85
10.30
FoulsContext
8.40
13.20
Fouls sufferedContext
11.20
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Aston Villa
Rest2.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d4High congestion
Travel0 km1,421 km in 14d
Schedule load43%High
Burnley
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel148 km71 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Aston Villa |
Burnley |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | High · 43 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | Yes | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 2.8UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 2 Oct | 8Premier League 2025-2026, 27 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 148 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,421 km | 71 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 2 / 4 / 5 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 14 | 13 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Aston Villa
Confirmed XI
23E. Martínez(G)
12L. Digne
14Pau Torres
4E. Konsa
2M. Cash
44B. Kamara
26L. Bogarde
27M. Rogers
7J. McGinn
11O. Watkins
17D. Malen
Burnley
Confirmed XI
1M. Dúbravka(G)
3Q. Hartman
5M. Estève
6A. Tuanzebe
29J. Laurent
2K. Walker
11J. Anthony
16Florentino
24J. Cullen
17L. Tchaouna
9L. Foster
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Aston Villa
Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Burnley
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Aston Villa-0.9 pp
- Draw+0.1 pp
- Burnley+0.9 pp
Home / Away this season
Aston Villa · Home
1.33points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-1
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.33
Burnley · Away
0.00points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-3
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 3.67
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | Aston Villa | Burnley |
|---|---|---|
| Sunderland | D 1–1 A | W 2–0 H |
| Points | 1 of 3 · 1.00 per game | 3 of 3 · 3.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
3 Aston Villa wins2 draws1 Burnley wins
Goals per game2.00 – 1.33
Over 2.567%
Both scored83%
Clean sheets17% · 17%
- 30 Dec 2023Aston Villa3–2Burnley
- 27 Aug 2023Burnley1–3Aston Villa
- 19 May 2022Aston Villa1–1Burnley
- 7 May 2022Burnley1–3Aston Villa
- 27 Jan 2021Burnley3–2Aston Villa
- 17 Dec 2020Aston Villa0–0Burnley
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Aston Villa | Burnley | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.67 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 2.17 | |
| Match goals | 1.67 | 3.17 | 2.96 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 83% | |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 50% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 17% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 50% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 17% | |
| Failed to score | 67% | 33% | |
| Games | 6 | 6 |
| Aston Villa | Burnley | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.88 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.75 | 2.17 | |
| Match goals | 1.63 | 3.17 | 2.96 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 83% | |
| Over 2.5 | 25% | 50% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 13% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 25% | 50% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 17% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 33% | |
| Games | 8 | 6 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Aston Villa | Burnley | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.33 | 2.83 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.50 | 7.33 | |
| Match total | 10.83 | 10.16 | 9.89 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 6/6 | 67% 4/6 | |
| Over 9.5 | 83% 5/6 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Over 10.5 | 67% 4/6 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.83 | 1.83 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.50 | 1.00 | |
| Match total | 4.33 | 2.83 | 3.87 |
| Over 3.5 | 67% 4/6 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 3/6 | 17% 1/6 | |
| Aston Villa | Burnley | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.20 | 3.40 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.90 | 5.70 | |
| Match total | 10.10 | 9.10 | 9.89 |
| Over 8.5 | 90% 9/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.10 | 1.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.40 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 4.50 | 3.90 | 3.87 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Andrew Kitchen 57 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.14league 3.74
Red cards0.07league 0.14
Cards 5+23%league 42%
Fouls23.9league 22.0
Penalties0.11league 0.20
Home wins44%league 48%
Aston VillaNo previous matches with this referee.
Burnley6 with this referee
Record3-3-0
Cards · opp.1.2 · 0.8
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W3 May 25H · Millwall3–11
- W29 Mar 25H · Bristol City1–00
- D15 Feb 25A · Preston0–03
- W4 Jan 25A · Blackburn1–02
- D6 Dec 24H · Middlesbrough1–11
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Aston Villa6 games · scored 4 · conceded 6
2
0-15
1
16-30
1
31-45
2
46-60
1
2
61-75
1
76-90
Burnley6 games · scored 6 · conceded 13
3
0-15
1
1
16-30
1
31-45
2
2
46-60
1
3
61-75
1
4
76-90
Aston Villa10 games · scored 9 · conceded 8
1
2
0-15
1
16-30
1
31-45
3
46-60
3
2
61-75
1
3
76-90
Burnley10 games · scored 18 · conceded 16
2
5
0-15
4
1
16-30
3
1
31-45
3
2
46-60
3
3
61-75
3
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
