Aston Villa
Attack—
Defense risk—
Aston Villa
12th · 12 pts · 8 played
DDWWW
1–0Full time
Manchester City
3rd · 16 pts · 8 played
WDWWW
Our take
It was too close to call.
Manchester City were the stronger side on L90 Strength (89 vs 80). Aston Villa had 2.9 days of rest, Manchester City 8 and had to travel 113 km.
Away travel113 kmRest days2.9 · 8Matches / 14d2 · 1
Aston Villa34%
Draw25%
Manchester City41%
Aston Villa34%
Draw27%
Manchester City39%
Aston Villa34%
Draw25%
Manchester City41%
Aston Villa27%
Draw24%
Manchester City49%
Aston Villa33%
Draw27%
Manchester City40%
Over 2.5 58%
Both score 61%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Birmingham)
No weather data yet
RefereeMichael Oliver
- Cards per match 3.7
- Penalties per match 0.28
- Matches 188
Team strength
Aston VillaManchester City
80
L90 StrengthIn forecast
89
82
Current StrengthIn forecast
91
83
AttackIn forecast
92
78
DefenceIn forecast
82
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisManchester City
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Aston VillaManchester City
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.13
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.75
0.81
xGVia Att/Def
1.83
1.31
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.04
+0.19
Goals minus xGContext
+0.30
50%
Scored inContext
88%
25%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
10.50
ShotsContext
13.13
3.13
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.88
30%
On target shareContext
37%
7.00
Shots in the boxContext
9.13
56%
Box shareContext
70%
10%
ConversionContext
16%
2.17
OffsidesContext
1.50
11.38
Shots allowedContext
9.63
3.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.00
3.88
BlocksContext
2.75
2.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.25
67%
Save rateContext
75%
56%
PossessionIn forecast
59%
451
PassesContext
566
385
Accurate passesContext
498
86%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.83
Team ratingContext
7.13
9.75
FoulsContext
8.13
13.25
Fouls sufferedContext
11.38
1.63
Yellow cardsContext
1.25
0.13
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.90
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.80
1.04
xGVia Att/Def
1.72
1.23
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.06
+0.16
Goals minus xGContext
+0.18
70%
Scored inContext
90%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
11.60
ShotsContext
14.00
3.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.50
31%
On target shareContext
39%
7.30
Shots in the boxContext
9.80
58%
Box shareContext
71%
10%
ConversionContext
14%
2.00
OffsidesContext
1.50
11.50
Shots allowedContext
8.60
3.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.70
3.78
BlocksContext
2.56
2.80
Goalkeeper savesContext
1.90
74%
Save rateContext
70%
58%
PossessionIn forecast
62%
463
PassesContext
614
402
Accurate passesContext
550
87%
Pass accuracyContext
90%
6.86
Team ratingContext
7.12
10.11
FoulsContext
8.60
14.30
Fouls sufferedContext
10.70
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
1.40
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Aston Villa
Rest2.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,421 km in 14d
Schedule load8%Low
Manchester City
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel113 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Aston Villa |
Manchester City |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 8 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 2.9UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 23 Oct | 8Premier League 2025-2026, 18 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 113 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,421 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 0 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.3 | 7.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Aston Villa
Confirmed XI
23E. Martínez(G)
12L. Digne
14Pau Torres
4E. Konsa
2M. Cash
24A. Onana
44B. Kamara
10E. Buendía
27M. Rogers
7J. McGinn
11O. Watkins
Manchester City
Confirmed XI
25G. Donnarumma(G)
24J. Gvardiol
3Rúben Dias
5J. Stones
27M. Nunes
4T. Reijnders
26Savinho
20Bernardo Silva
47P. Foden
52O. Bobb
9E. Haaland
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Aston Villa
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Manchester City
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Aston Villa-0.3 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Manchester City+0.5 pp
Home / Away this season
Aston Villa · Home
1.75points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-1
- Scored
- 1.25
- Conceded
- 1.25
Manchester City · Away
1.75points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-1
- Scored
- 1.75
- Conceded
- 0.75
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 4 this season
| Opponent | Aston Villa | Manchester City |
|---|---|---|
| Tottenham | W 2–1 A | L 0–2 H |
| Burnley | W 2–1 H | W 5–1 H |
| Everton | D 0–0 A | W 2–0 H |
| Brentford | L 0–1 A | W 1–0 A |
| Points | 7 of 12 · 1.75 per game | 9 of 12 · 2.25 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings
2 Aston Villa wins1 draws7 Manchester City wins
Goals per game1.10 – 2.00
Over 2.570%
Both scored80%
Clean sheets10% · 10%
- 22 Apr 2025Manchester City2–1Aston Villa
- 21 Dec 2024Aston Villa2–1Manchester City
- 3 Apr 2024Manchester City4–1Aston Villa
- 6 Dec 2023Aston Villa1–0Manchester City
- 12 Feb 2023Manchester City3–1Aston Villa
- 3 Sep 2022Aston Villa1–1Manchester City
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Aston Villa | Manchester City | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 2.13 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 0.75 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 2.88 | 3.03 |
| Over 1.5 | 63% | 88% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | 13% | 25% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 38% | 61% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 13% | |
| Games | 8 | 8 |
| Aston Villa | Manchester City | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.20 | 2.13 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 0.75 | |
| Match goals | 2.20 | 2.88 | 3.03 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 88% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 25% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 38% | 61% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 13% | |
| Games | 10 | 8 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Aston Villa | Manchester City | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.50 | 5.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.38 | 4.00 | |
| Match total | 10.88 | 9.00 | 9.81 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 8/8 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 88% 7/8 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 63% 5/8 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.75 | 1.25 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.25 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 3.25 | 3.73 |
| Over 3.5 | 63% 5/8 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Over 4.5 | 38% 3/8 | 25% 2/8 | |
| Aston Villa | Manchester City | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.80 | 4.90 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.90 | 3.80 | |
| Match total | 10.70 | 8.70 | 9.81 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 10/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 80% 8/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 60% 6/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 1.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.40 | 2.30 | |
| Match total | 4.20 | 3.70 | 3.73 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Michael Oliver 188 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.60league 3.62
Red cards0.14league 0.12
Cards 5+34%league 40%
Fouls22.5league 22.0
Penalties0.28league 0.20
Home wins42%league 49%
Aston Villa12 with this referee
Record5-0-7
Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.8
Pens for · against0 · 2
Reds1
- W22 Feb 25H · Chelsea2–11
- L24 Aug 24H · Arsenal0–21
- W2 Mar 24A · Luton3–24
- W13 Jan 23H · Leeds2–12
- L20 Oct 22A · Fulham0–33
Manchester City23 with this referee
Record18-2-3
Cards · opp.1.5 · 2.0
Pens for · against2 · 7
- W29 Dec 24A · Leicester2–01
- W4 Dec 24H · Nottingham Forest3–02
- L2 Nov 24A · Bournemouth1–21
- D22 Sep 24H · Arsenal2–23
- W31 Aug 24A · West Ham3–12
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Aston Villa8 games · scored 8 · conceded 8
3
0-15
1
1
16-30
2
31-45
2
46-60
2
2
61-75
1
2
76-90
Manchester City8 games · scored 17 · conceded 6
3
0-15
1
16-30
3
3
31-45
2
46-60
5
1
61-75
3
2
76-90
Aston Villa10 games · scored 12 · conceded 10
2
3
0-15
1
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
2
46-60
3
3
61-75
2
2
76-90
Manchester City10 games · scored 19 · conceded 8
4
0-15
2
1
16-30
3
3
31-45
3
46-60
5
1
61-75
2
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
