Bundesliga Gameweek 14 Sat, Dec 19 · 14:30 BayArena, Leverkusen
Bayer Leverkusen 4th · 13 pts · 6 played
VS— Compare
Eintracht Frankfurt 11th · 8 pts · 6 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel157 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d3 · 2
Real contextStrength only
Bayer Leverkusen—%
Draw—%
Eintracht Frankfurt—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Leverkusen)

Forecast from 4 Dec

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Bayer Leverkusen and Eintracht Frankfurt. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

Bayer LeverkusenEintracht Frankfurt
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
79 Current StrengthIn forecast 48
87 AttackIn forecast 54
79 DefenceIn forecast 37
94 Form indexContext 52
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Bayer Leverkusen

Attack—
Defense risk—

Eintracht Frankfurt

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Bayer LeverkusenEintracht Frankfurt
2.67 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.67
1.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.67
2.19 xGVia Att/Def 1.77
1.16 xG allowedVia Att/Def 2.00
+0.48 Goals minus xGContext -0.10
100% Scored inContext 83%
33% Clean sheetsContext 17%
19.67 ShotsContext 14.67
6.17 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.83
31% On target shareContext 40%
13.83 Shots in the boxContext 11.50
71% Box shareContext 78%
14% ConversionContext 11%
1.33 OffsidesContext 2.00
11.50 Shots allowedContext 17.50
4.20 On target allowedVia Att/Def 7.00
2.67 BlocksContext 5.00
2.20 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.67
52% Save rateContext 67%
58% PossessionIn forecast 51%
539 PassesContext 436
470 Accurate passesContext 353
87% Pass accuracyContext 81%
7.02 Team ratingContext 6.86
12.33 FoulsContext 10.33
10.00 Fouls sufferedContext 13.17
1.33 Yellow cardsContext 2.33
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 6 and 6 games
2.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.60
1.30 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.40
2.35 xGVia Att/Def 1.60
1.25 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.75
+0.05 Goals minus xGContext +0.00
100% Scored inContext 90%
40% Clean sheetsContext 10%
18.50 ShotsContext 14.10
6.60 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.80
36% On target shareContext 41%
13.30 Shots in the boxContext 9.60
71% Box shareContext 68%
13% ConversionContext 11%
1.89 OffsidesContext 2.22
12.20 Shots allowedContext 15.70
4.56 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.40
3.10 BlocksContext 4.44
2.89 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.20
63% Save rateContext 66%
58% PossessionIn forecast 53%
537 PassesContext 449
470 Accurate passesContext 370
88% Pass accuracyContext 82%
7.06 Team ratingContext 6.78
11.90 FoulsContext 10.80
9.80 Fouls sufferedContext 12.10
1.20 Yellow cardsContext 2.30
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Bayer Leverkusen
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km519 km in 14d
Schedule load15%Low
Form 94 · 15 pts vs 7.2 for an average club · +5.2 vs expected
  • W18 OctH · SC Freiburg2–12.1 xPts
  • W15 OctA · Lech Poznan4–01.9 xPts
  • W10 OctA · FSV Mainz 054–31.6 xPts
  • W20 SepH · RB Leipzig2–01.7 xPts
  • W16 SepH · Celje2–02.6 xPts
Eintracht Frankfurt
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel157 km396 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 52 · 7 pts vs 6.8 for an average club · +0.7 vs expected
  • W16 OctH · 1.FC Köln1–01.8 xPts
  • L10 OctA · RB Leipzig0–60.8 xPts
  • D19 SepH · SC Freiburg2–21.3 xPts
  • W12 SepA · FSV Mainz 053–10.9 xPts
  • L6 SepH · FC Augsburg1–41.5 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Bayer Leverkusen Eintracht Frankfurt
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 15Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match7Bundesliga 2026-2027, 12 Dec7Bundesliga 2026-2027, 12 Dec
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km157 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways519 km396 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 3 / 61 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one2121

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Bayer Leverkusen Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs SC Freiburg (H) 2–1, 18 Oct
1M. Flekken(G)
3Miguel Gutiérrez 2F. Medina 12E. Tapsoba 4J. Quansah
6E. Fernández 24Aleix García
9Afonso Moreira 30I. Maza 19M. Diaby
14P. Schick
Eintracht Frankfurt Last XI · not confirmed
4-4-2 · vs 1.FC Köln (H) 1–0, 16 Oct
1N. Atubolu(G)
26K. Kosugi 3L. Brassier 4R. Koch 34P. Collins
8F. Chaïbi 27M. Götze 25R. Onyedika 20R. Doan
11Y. Ebnoutalib 9J. Burkardt

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Bayer Leverkusen Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Eintracht Frankfurt Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Bayer Leverkusen · Home 3.00points per game · 3 home games
W-D-L
3-0-0
Scored
2.67
Conceded
0.33
Eintracht Frankfurt · Away 1.33points per game · 3 away games
W-D-L
1-1-1
Scored
2.00
Conceded
3.33

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 5 this season

OpponentBayer LeverkusenEintracht Frankfurt
SC Freiburg W 2–1 H D 2–2 H
FSV Mainz 05 W 4–3 A W 3–1 A
RB Leipzig W 2–0 H L 0–6 A
FC Augsburg D 2–2 A L 1–4 H
Union Berlin W 4–0 H D 3–3 A
Points13 of 15 · 2.60 per game5 of 15 · 1.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings

8 Bayer Leverkusen wins0 draws2 Eintracht Frankfurt wins
Goals per game2.80 – 1.60 Over 2.590% Both scored80% Clean sheets20% · 0%
  • 31 Jan 2026Eintracht Frankfurt1–3Bayer Leverkusen
  • 12 Sep 2025Bayer Leverkusen3–1Eintracht Frankfurt
  • 1 Mar 2025Eintracht Frankfurt1–4Bayer Leverkusen
  • 19 Oct 2024Bayer Leverkusen2–1Eintracht Frankfurt
  • 5 May 2024Eintracht Frankfurt1–5Bayer Leverkusen
  • 17 Dec 2023Bayer Leverkusen3–0Eintracht Frankfurt

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

Bayer LeverkusenEintracht FrankfurtForecast
Scored per game 2.671.67
Conceded per game 1.502.67
Match goals 4.174.33
Over 1.5 100%83%
Over 2.5 83%83%
Over 3.5 67%83%
Both teams scored 67%67%
Clean sheets 33%17%
Failed to score 0%17%
Games66
Bayer LeverkusenEintracht FrankfurtForecast
Scored per game 2.401.60
Conceded per game 1.302.40
Match goals 3.704.00
Over 1.5 100%90%
Over 2.5 70%80%
Over 3.5 60%70%
Both teams scored 60%80%
Clean sheets 40%10%
Failed to score 0%10%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

Bayer LeverkusenEintracht FrankfurtLeague
Corners
Corners won7.335.33
Corners conceded3.334.00
Match total10.669.3310.72
Over 8.550% 3/667% 4/6
Over 9.550% 3/633% 2/6
Over 10.550% 3/617% 1/6
Cards
Cards1.332.33
Opponent cards2.171.33
Match total3.503.663.51
Over 3.567% 4/667% 4/6
Over 4.533% 2/617% 1/6
Bayer LeverkusenEintracht FrankfurtLeague
Corners
Corners won6.705.60
Corners conceded3.504.80
Match total10.2010.4010.72
Over 8.560% 6/1070% 7/10
Over 9.540% 4/1050% 5/10
Over 10.540% 4/1040% 4/10
Cards
Cards1.202.40
Opponent cards1.801.60
Match total3.004.003.51
Over 3.540% 4/1060% 6/10
Over 4.520% 2/1030% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Bayer Leverkusen6 games · scored 16 · conceded 9
3 3 0-15
3 16-30
1 2 31-45
3 3 46-60
2 61-75
4 1 76-90
Eintracht Frankfurt6 games · scored 10 · conceded 16
5 3 0-15
16-30
2 3 31-45
1 4 46-60
1 1 61-75
1 5 76-90
Bayer Leverkusen10 games · scored 24 · conceded 13
5 4 0-15
4 16-30
3 3 31-45
3 4 46-60
3 1 61-75
6 1 76-90
Eintracht Frankfurt10 games · scored 16 · conceded 24
6 4 0-15
16-30
2 7 31-45
2 6 46-60
3 2 61-75
3 5 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures Bundesliga

View all fixtures →
Bayern München Werder Bremen Dec 1914:30 SC Freiburg VfB Stuttgart Dec 1914:30 FSV Mainz 05 1.FC Köln Dec 1914:30 Bayer Leverkusen Eintracht Frankfurt Dec 1914:30 FC Augsburg SC Paderborn 07 Dec 1914:30 RB Leipzig Borussia Dortmund Dec 1914:30 FC Schalke 04 Borussia Mönchengladbach Dec 1914:30 Union Berlin 1899 Hoffenheim Dec 1914:30 SV Elversberg Hamburger SV Dec 1914:30