Bundesliga Gameweek 14 Sat, Dec 19 · 14:30 Fußball Arena München, München
Bayern München 1st · 14 pts · 6 played
VS— Compare
Werder Bremen 8th · 9 pts · 6 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel583 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d3 · 2
Real contextStrength only
Bayern München—%
Draw—%
Werder Bremen—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (München)

Forecast from 4 Dec

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Bayern München and Werder Bremen. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

Bayern MünchenWerder Bremen
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
93 Current StrengthIn forecast 43
96 AttackIn forecast 56
90 DefenceIn forecast 45
78 Form indexContext 71
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Bayern München

Attack—
Defense risk—

Werder Bremen

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Bayern MünchenWerder Bremen
3.67 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.00
0.83 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.00
3.57 xGVia Att/Def 1.58
0.92 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.68
+0.10 Goals minus xGContext +0.42
83% Scored inContext 100%
33% Clean sheetsContext 0%
24.17 ShotsContext 14.00
10.33 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.83
43% On target shareContext 49%
14.50 Shots in the boxContext 9.67
61% Box shareContext 66%
15% ConversionContext 14%
2.67 OffsidesContext 2.17
7.67 Shots allowedContext 15.33
2.83 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.50
3.00 BlocksContext 4.50
2.40 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.33
75% Save rateContext 61%
69% PossessionIn forecast 47%
706 PassesContext 476
635 Accurate passesContext 400
90% Pass accuracyContext 84%
7.39 Team ratingContext 6.96
10.50 FoulsContext 12.00
9.33 Fouls sufferedContext 11.17
0.83 Yellow cardsContext 1.17
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 6 and 6 games
3.60 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.40
0.90 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.90
3.27 xGVia Att/Def 1.31
1.12 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.81
+0.33 Goals minus xGContext +0.09
90% Scored inContext 80%
40% Clean sheetsContext 0%
22.80 ShotsContext 12.70
9.80 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.30
43% On target shareContext 42%
13.40 Shots in the boxContext 8.44
59% Box shareContext 62%
16% ConversionContext 11%
2.90 OffsidesContext 2.44
8.10 Shots allowedContext 15.70
3.11 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.60
3.50 BlocksContext 4.40
2.38 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.70
70% Save rateContext 66%
68% PossessionIn forecast 46%
693 PassesContext 458
625 Accurate passesContext 380
90% Pass accuracyContext 83%
7.30 Team ratingContext 6.93
8.60 FoulsContext 10.30
8.70 Fouls sufferedContext 8.80
0.90 Yellow cardsContext 1.10
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Bayern München
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km467 km in 14d
Schedule load15%Low
Form 78 · 11 pts vs 7.4 for an average club · -1.8 vs expected
  • W17 OctH · RB Leipzig6–12.4 xPts
  • D13 OctA · Viking3–32.8 xPts
  • D10 OctA · FC Augsburg2–22.4 xPts
  • W18 SepH · Union Berlin7–02.8 xPts
  • W13 SepA · SV Elversberg2–12.4 xPts
Werder Bremen
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel583 km659 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Form 71 · 9 pts vs 6.6 for an average club · +3.6 vs expected
  • D17 OctH · SC Paderborn 072–21.7 xPts
  • D9 OctA · Borussia Dortmund2–20.5 xPts
  • W19 SepH · FC Augsburg3–21.2 xPts
  • D12 SepA · 1.FC Köln1–11.1 xPts
  • W5 SepH · RB Leipzig3–10.8 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Bayern München Werder Bremen
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 15Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match7Bundesliga 2026-2027, 12 Dec7Bundesliga 2026-2027, 12 Dec
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km583 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways467 km659 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 3 / 51 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one2121

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Bayern München Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs RB Leipzig (H) 6–1, 17 Oct
40J. Urbig(G)
11N. Brown 3M. Kim 2D. Upamecano 27K. Laimer
45A. Pavlović 6J. Kimmich
14L. Díaz 34I. Saibari 17M. Olise
9H. Kane
Werder Bremen Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs SC Paderborn 07 (H) 2–2, 17 Oct
1K. Hein(G)
2O. Deman 32M. Friedl 5A. Pieper 13Arthur
44Y. Regeer 15L. Reis
17M. Grüll 20Chuky 18E. Dinkçi
10N. Füllkrug

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Bayern München Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Werder Bremen Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Bayern München · Home 3.00points per game · 3 home games
W-D-L
3-0-0
Scored
6.00
Conceded
0.67
Werder Bremen · Away 0.67points per game · 3 away games
W-D-L
0-2-1
Scored
1.33
Conceded
2.33

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 2 this season

OpponentBayern MünchenWerder Bremen
RB Leipzig W 6–1 H W 3–1 H
FC Augsburg D 2–2 A W 3–2 H
Points4 of 6 · 2.00 per game6 of 6 · 3.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings

7 Bayern München wins0 draws1 Werder Bremen wins
Goals per game3.38 – 0.38 Over 2.588% Both scored25% Clean sheets63% · 13%
  • 14 Feb 2026Werder Bremen0–3Bayern München
  • 26 Sep 2025Bayern München4–0Werder Bremen
  • 7 Feb 2025Bayern München3–0Werder Bremen
  • 21 Sep 2024Werder Bremen0–5Bayern München
  • 21 Jan 2024Bayern München0–1Werder Bremen
  • 18 Aug 2023Werder Bremen0–4Bayern München

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

Bayern MünchenWerder BremenForecast
Scored per game 3.672.00
Conceded per game 0.832.00
Match goals 4.504.00
Over 1.5 83%100%
Over 2.5 83%83%
Over 3.5 67%83%
Both teams scored 67%100%
Clean sheets 33%0%
Failed to score 17%0%
Games66
Bayern MünchenWerder BremenForecast
Scored per game 3.601.40
Conceded per game 0.901.90
Match goals 4.503.30
Over 1.5 80%90%
Over 2.5 80%60%
Over 3.5 70%60%
Both teams scored 60%80%
Clean sheets 40%0%
Failed to score 10%20%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

Bayern MünchenWerder BremenLeague
Corners
Corners won9.403.67
Corners conceded3.205.83
Match total12.609.5010.72
Over 8.5100% 5/567% 4/6
Over 9.5100% 5/550% 3/6
Over 10.5100% 5/550% 3/6
Cards
Cards0.831.17
Opponent cards2.171.33
Match total3.002.503.51
Over 3.550% 3/617% 1/6
Over 4.50% 0/60% 0/6
Bayern MünchenWerder BremenLeague
Corners
Corners won8.443.90
Corners conceded3.786.40
Match total12.2210.3010.72
Over 8.5100% 9/980% 8/10
Over 9.578% 7/960% 6/10
Over 10.567% 6/950% 5/10
Cards
Cards1.001.20
Opponent cards1.901.00
Match total2.902.203.51
Over 3.540% 4/1020% 2/10
Over 4.510% 1/100% 0/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Bayern München6 games · scored 22 · conceded 5
1 1 0-15
4 16-30
3 31-45
6 1 46-60
4 2 61-75
4 1 76-90
Werder Bremen6 games · scored 12 · conceded 12
1 1 0-15
4 16-30
1 31-45
1 3 46-60
4 61-75
6 3 76-90
Bayern München10 games · scored 36 · conceded 9
3 2 0-15
5 1 16-30
3 1 31-45
10 1 46-60
7 2 61-75
8 2 76-90
Werder Bremen10 games · scored 14 · conceded 19
1 1 0-15
1 6 16-30
2 31-45
1 4 46-60
5 2 61-75
6 4 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures Bundesliga

View all fixtures →
Bayern München Werder Bremen Dec 1914:30 SC Freiburg VfB Stuttgart Dec 1914:30 FSV Mainz 05 1.FC Köln Dec 1914:30 Bayer Leverkusen Eintracht Frankfurt Dec 1914:30 FC Augsburg SC Paderborn 07 Dec 1914:30 RB Leipzig Borussia Dortmund Dec 1914:30 FC Schalke 04 Borussia Mönchengladbach Dec 1914:30 Union Berlin 1899 Hoffenheim Dec 1914:30 SV Elversberg Hamburger SV Dec 1914:30