Bundesliga Gameweek 14 Sat, Dec 19 · 14:30 Europa-Park Stadion, Freiburg im Breisgau
SC Freiburg 3rd · 13 pts · 6 played
VS— Compare
VfB Stuttgart 13th · 6 pts · 6 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel131 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 3
Real contextStrength only
SC Freiburg—%
Draw—%
VfB Stuttgart—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Freiburg im Breisgau)

Forecast from 4 Dec

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for SC Freiburg and VfB Stuttgart. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

SC FreiburgVfB Stuttgart
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
64 Current StrengthIn forecast 67
63 AttackIn forecast 70
73 DefenceIn forecast 58
78 Form indexContext 46
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

SC Freiburg

Attack—
Defense risk—

VfB Stuttgart

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

SC FreiburgVfB Stuttgart
2.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.33
1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.67
1.87 xGVia Att/Def 1.91
0.94 xG allowedVia Att/Def 2.38
+0.63 Goals minus xGContext -0.58
100% Scored inContext 67%
33% Clean sheetsContext 17%
16.00 ShotsContext 17.00
5.33 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.83
33% On target shareContext 34%
10.00 Shots in the boxContext 12.17
63% Box shareContext 72%
16% ConversionContext 8%
1.33 OffsidesContext 1.60
9.17 Shots allowedContext 18.17
3.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.33
3.33 BlocksContext 5.00
2.25 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.33
64% Save rateContext 63%
53% PossessionIn forecast 55%
465 PassesContext 506
390 Accurate passesContext 422
84% Pass accuracyContext 83%
7.06 Team ratingContext 7.02
9.50 FoulsContext 9.83
14.17 Fouls sufferedContext 11.17
1.67 Yellow cardsContext 1.00
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 6 and 6 games
2.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.90
1.40 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.40
1.52 xGVia Att/Def 1.91
1.17 xG allowedVia Att/Def 2.00
+0.88 Goals minus xGContext -0.01
90% Scored inContext 80%
20% Clean sheetsContext 20%
13.50 ShotsContext 16.80
5.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.20
37% On target shareContext 37%
8.70 Shots in the boxContext 11.80
64% Box shareContext 70%
18% ConversionContext 11%
1.71 OffsidesContext 2.00
11.00 Shots allowedContext 15.50
4.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.80
3.80 BlocksContext 5.22
2.63 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.10
60% Save rateContext 65%
53% PossessionIn forecast 55%
445 PassesContext 502
373 Accurate passesContext 422
84% Pass accuracyContext 84%
6.98 Team ratingContext 7.07
10.80 FoulsContext 11.10
13.10 Fouls sufferedContext 11.20
1.30 Yellow cardsContext 1.40
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

SC Freiburg
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km446 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 78 · 10 pts vs 6.5 for an average club · +2.2 vs expected
  • L18 OctA · Bayer Leverkusen1–20.8 xPts
  • W11 OctH · FC Schalke 042–12.0 xPts
  • D19 SepA · Eintracht Frankfurt2–21.5 xPts
  • W12 SepH · Borussia Mönchengladbach5–02.1 xPts
  • W5 SepA · SC Paderborn 071–01.5 xPts
VfB Stuttgart
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel131 km321 km in 14d
Schedule load15%Low
Form 46 · 6 pts vs 6.4 for an average club · -2.0 vs expected
  • L17 OctA · Hamburger SV0–11.8 xPts
  • W14 OctA · Slovan Bratislava3–02.1 xPts
  • W10 OctA · SC Paderborn 072–01.6 xPts
  • L19 SepH · Borussia Dortmund0–11.2 xPts
  • L12 SepA · 1899 Hoffenheim1–21.4 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
SC Freiburg VfB Stuttgart
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 15
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match7Bundesliga 2026-2027, 12 Dec7Bundesliga 2026-2027, 12 Dec
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km131 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways446 km321 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 2 / 41 / 3 / 6
Next matchdays after this one2121

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

SC Freiburg Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Bayer Leverkusen (A) 1–2, 18 Oct
1M. Backhaus(G)
33J. Makengo 3P. Lienhart 28M. Ginter 29P. Treu
16Y. Engelhardt 8M. Eggestein
7D. Scherhant 42Keisuke Goto 19J. Beste
31I. Matanović
VfB Stuttgart Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Hamburger SV (A) 0–1, 17 Oct
41D. Seimen(G)
3R. Hendriks 24J. Chabot 29Finn Jeltsch 4J. Vagnoman
6A. Stiller 16A. Karazor
18J. Leweling 26D. Undav 11B. El Khannouss
9E. Demirović

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
SC Freiburg Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
VfB Stuttgart Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

SC Freiburg · Home 3.00points per game · 3 home games
W-D-L
3-0-0
Scored
3.67
Conceded
0.67
VfB Stuttgart · Away 0.75points per game · 4 away games
W-D-L
1-0-3
Scored
1.00
Conceded
2.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 1 this season

OpponentSC FreiburgVfB Stuttgart
SC Paderborn 07 W 1–0 A W 2–0 A
Points3 of 3 · 3.00 per game3 of 3 · 3.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings

6 SC Freiburg wins0 draws4 VfB Stuttgart wins
Goals per game1.50 – 1.80 Over 2.570% Both scored50% Clean sheets20% · 30%
  • 1 Feb 2026VfB Stuttgart1–0SC Freiburg
  • 13 Sep 2025SC Freiburg3–1VfB Stuttgart
  • 18 Jan 2025VfB Stuttgart4–0SC Freiburg
  • 24 Aug 2024SC Freiburg3–1VfB Stuttgart
  • 3 Feb 2024SC Freiburg1–3VfB Stuttgart
  • 2 Sep 2023VfB Stuttgart5–0SC Freiburg

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

SC FreiburgVfB StuttgartForecast
Scored per game 2.501.33
Conceded per game 1.001.67
Match goals 3.503.00
Over 1.5 83%67%
Over 2.5 83%50%
Over 3.5 50%33%
Both teams scored 67%50%
Clean sheets 33%17%
Failed to score 0%33%
Games66
SC FreiburgVfB StuttgartForecast
Scored per game 2.401.90
Conceded per game 1.401.40
Match goals 3.803.30
Over 1.5 90%80%
Over 2.5 90%70%
Over 3.5 60%50%
Both teams scored 70%60%
Clean sheets 20%20%
Failed to score 10%20%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

SC FreiburgVfB StuttgartLeague
Corners
Corners won5.176.67
Corners conceded3.506.00
Match total8.6712.6710.72
Over 8.550% 3/683% 5/6
Over 9.517% 1/683% 5/6
Over 10.517% 1/683% 5/6
Cards
Cards1.831.00
Opponent cards1.832.33
Match total3.663.333.51
Over 3.567% 4/650% 3/6
Over 4.533% 2/617% 1/6
SC FreiburgVfB StuttgartLeague
Corners
Corners won4.106.30
Corners conceded4.005.40
Match total8.1011.7010.72
Over 8.550% 5/1090% 9/10
Over 9.520% 2/1070% 7/10
Over 10.520% 2/1070% 7/10
Cards
Cards1.401.40
Opponent cards2.202.10
Match total3.603.503.51
Over 3.570% 7/1050% 5/10
Over 4.530% 3/1020% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

SC Freiburg6 games · scored 15 · conceded 6
2 1 0-15
4 2 16-30
2 1 31-45
3 46-60
61-75
4 2 76-90
VfB Stuttgart6 games · scored 8 · conceded 10
1 0-15
1 1 16-30
1 31-45
3 2 46-60
1 2 61-75
2 4 76-90
SC Freiburg10 games · scored 24 · conceded 14
2 2 0-15
8 2 16-30
3 4 31-45
4 1 46-60
2 2 61-75
5 3 76-90
VfB Stuttgart10 games · scored 19 · conceded 14
2 2 0-15
4 2 16-30
4 31-45
4 2 46-60
2 3 61-75
3 5 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures Bundesliga

View all fixtures →
Bayern München Werder Bremen Dec 1914:30 SC Freiburg VfB Stuttgart Dec 1914:30 FSV Mainz 05 1.FC Köln Dec 1914:30 Bayer Leverkusen Eintracht Frankfurt Dec 1914:30 FC Augsburg SC Paderborn 07 Dec 1914:30 RB Leipzig Borussia Dortmund Dec 1914:30 FC Schalke 04 Borussia Mönchengladbach Dec 1914:30 Union Berlin 1899 Hoffenheim Dec 1914:30 SV Elversberg Hamburger SV Dec 1914:30