FC Augsburg vs SC Paderborn 07

Bundesliga Gameweek 14 Sat, Dec 19 · 14:30 WWK Arena, Augsburg

FC Augsburg 10th · 8 pts · 6 played WDLDL

VS— Compare

SC Paderborn 07 16th · 5 pts · 6 played LLWLD

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel402 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2

Real contextStrength only

FC Augsburg—%

Draw—%

SC Paderborn 07—%

Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.

Weather (Augsburg)

Forecast from 4 Dec

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Defence

Streaks

Streak FC Augsburg 6 Scoring in a row Last 6 recorded matches · all competitions Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Scoring in a row

Team strength

FC Augsburg

SC Paderborn 07

— L90 StrengthIn forecast —

50 Current StrengthIn forecast 38

72 AttackIn forecast 34

23 DefenceIn forecast 33

46 Form indexContext 33

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

FC Augsburg

Attack—

Defense risk—

SC Paderborn 07

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

FC Augsburg

SC Paderborn 07

2.67 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.83

2.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50

2.15 xGVia Att/Def 0.90

2.95 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.84

+0.52 Goals minus xGContext -0.07

100% Scored inContext 33%

17% Clean sheetsContext 17%

15.67 ShotsContext 13.50

7.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.25

45% On target shareContext 21%

11.67 Shots in the boxContext 7.67

72% Box shareContext 58%

17% ConversionContext 6%

1.75 OffsidesContext 1.20

21.83 Shots allowedContext 18.17

7.83 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.33

6.17 BlocksContext 6.33

5.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.67

70% Save rateContext 74%

42% PossessionIn forecast 46%

372 PassesContext 443

288 Accurate passesContext 357

77% Pass accuracyContext 81%

7.01 Team ratingContext 6.88

9.83 FoulsContext 10.50

10.00 Fouls sufferedContext 10.83

1.83 Yellow cardsContext 1.33

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 6 and 6 games

2.30 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.10

1.90 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20

2.02 xGVia Att/Def 1.16

2.25 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.69

+0.28 Goals minus xGContext -0.06

90% Scored inContext 50%

10% Clean sheetsContext 30%

15.10 ShotsContext 14.50

6.30 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.75

42% On target shareContext 26%

11.10 Shots in the boxContext 10.38

72% Box shareContext 60%

15% ConversionContext 8%

1.88 OffsidesContext 1.33

19.20 Shots allowedContext 16.00

6.80 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.80

5.50 BlocksContext 5.11

4.80 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.60

71% Save rateContext 79%

41% PossessionIn forecast 48%

356 PassesContext 451

274 Accurate passesContext 366

77% Pass accuracyContext 81%

6.95 Team ratingContext 6.94

9.20 FoulsContext 10.80

9.70 Fouls sufferedContext 10.60

1.60 Yellow cardsContext 1.60

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

FC Augsburg WDLDL

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km854 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 46 · 5 pts vs 5.4 for an average club · -0.9 vs expected

L17 OctA · SV Elversberg3–41.4 xPts
D10 OctH · Bayern München2–20.5 xPts
L19 SepA · Werder Bremen2–31.5 xPts
D12 SepH · Bayer Leverkusen2–21.3 xPts
W6 SepA · Eintracht Frankfurt4–11.3 xPts

SC Paderborn 07 LLWLD

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel402 km893 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

Form 33 · 4 pts vs 6.0 for an average club · -1.3 vs expected

D17 OctA · Werder Bremen2–21.1 xPts
L10 OctH · VfB Stuttgart0–21.2 xPts
W20 SepH · 1899 Hoffenheim3–11.3 xPts
L12 SepA · Borussia Dortmund0–30.5 xPts
L5 SepH · SC Freiburg0–11.2 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	FC Augsburg	SC Paderborn 07
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7Bundesliga 2026-2027, 12 Dec	7Bundesliga 2026-2027, 12 Dec
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	402 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	854 km	893 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 4	1 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	21	21

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

FC Augsburg Last XI · not confirmed

3-4-2-1 · vs SV Elversberg (A) 3–4, 17 Oct

1F. Dahmen(G)

2C. Brackelmann 5C. Matsima 35A. Bah

16Hennes Behrens 32F. Rieder 4H. Massengo 27M. Wolf

21A. Ibrahimović 19Robin Fellhauer

9Rodrigo Ribeiro

SC Paderborn 07 Last XI · not confirmed

3-1-4-2 · vs Werder Bremen (A) 2–2, 17 Oct

15N. Noll(G)

22M. Hansen 25T. Scheller 21J. ter Horst

5S. Castañeda

23R. Obermair 40G. Vidović 28L. Ulrich 17L. Curda

27S. Tigges 30S. Marino

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

FC Augsburg Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh

SC Paderborn 07 Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh

Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

FC Augsburg · Home 1.67points per game · 3 home games

W-D-L: 1-2-0
Scored: 2.33
Conceded: 1.33

SC Paderborn 07 · Away 0.67points per game · 3 away games

W-D-L: 0-2-1
Scored: 0.67
Conceded: 1.67

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 1 this season

Opponent	FC Augsburg	SC Paderborn 07
Werder Bremen	L 2–3 A	D 2–2 A
Points	0 of 3 · 0.00 per game	1 of 3 · 1.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

	FC Augsburg	SC Paderborn 07
Scored per game	2.67	0.83
Conceded per game	2.00	1.50
Match goals	4.67	2.33
Over 1.5	100%	67%
Over 2.5	100%	50%
Over 3.5	83%	33%
Both teams scored	83%	33%
Clean sheets	17%	17%
Failed to score	0%	67%
Games	6	6

	FC Augsburg	SC Paderborn 07
Scored per game	2.30	0.83
Conceded per game	1.90	1.50
Match goals	4.20	2.33
Over 1.5	100%	67%
Over 2.5	90%	50%
Over 3.5	80%	33%
Both teams scored	80%	33%
Clean sheets	10%	17%
Failed to score	10%	67%
Games	10	6

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	FC Augsburg	SC Paderborn 07	League
Corners
Corners won	6.00	4.33
Corners conceded	6.83	6.17
Match total	12.83	10.50	10.72
Over 8.5	83% 5/6	83% 5/6
Over 9.5	83% 5/6	67% 4/6
Over 10.5	83% 5/6	50% 3/6
Cards
Cards	1.83	1.33
Opponent cards	1.50	1.17
Match total	3.33	2.50	3.51
Over 3.5	33% 2/6	17% 1/6
Over 4.5	17% 1/6	17% 1/6

	FC Augsburg	SC Paderborn 07	League
Corners
Corners won	5.80	5.10
Corners conceded	6.10	4.70
Match total	11.90	9.80	10.72
Over 8.5	80% 8/10	60% 6/10
Over 9.5	80% 8/10	50% 5/10
Over 10.5	70% 7/10	40% 4/10
Cards
Cards	1.60	1.70
Opponent cards	1.70	2.00
Match total	3.30	3.70	3.51
Over 3.5	40% 4/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	10% 1/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.