Bayern München
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Bayern München
1st · 67 pts · 26 played
WWWWD
4–0Full time
Union Berlin
9th · 31 pts · 26 played
LWLLW
Bayern München90.5%fair odds 1.10
Draw6.4%fair odds 15.57
Union Berlin3.0%fair odds 32.95
Expected goals4.11 – 0.82total 4.93
Likeliest score4–08.7%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Union Berlin
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Bayern München ↓ · Union Berlin → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 2.9 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 8.4 | 6.9 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 8.7 | 7.1 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 7.1 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 10.2 | 8.3 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Bayern München goals, columns Union Berlin goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 4–08.7%11.56
- 3–08.4%11.88
- 5–07.1%14.06
- 4–17.1%14.16
- 3–16.9%14.55
- 2–06.1%16.28
- 5–15.8%17.22
- 2–15.0%19.94
- 6–04.9%20.52
- 6–14.0%25.13
Winning margin
62.3%
Bayern München by 3+
fair 1.61
16.6%
Bayern München by 2
fair 6.01
11.6%
Bayern München by 1
fair 8.61
6.4%
Draw
fair 15.57
2.2%
Union Berlin by 1
fair 45.38
0.7%
Union Berlin by 2
fair 152.22
0.2%
Union Berlin by 3+
fair 575.68
Goal distribution
Total goals
1%0
3%1
9%2
14%3
18%4
55%5+
Bayern München goals
2%0
7%1
14%2
19%3
59%4+
Union Berlin goals
44%0
36%1
15%2
4%3
1%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern München win | 90.5% | 88.1% | +2.5 pp |
| Draw | 6.4% | 8.1% | -1.7 pp |
| Union Berlin win | 3.0% | 3.8% | -0.8 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 86.9% | 82.0% | +4.9 pp |
| Both teams score | 55.0% | 52.6% | +2.4 pp |
| Expected goals Bayern München | 4.11 | 3.67 | +0.44 |
| Expected goals Union Berlin | 0.82 | 0.77 | +0.04 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Bayern München win90.5%1.10
- Draw6.4%15.57
- Union Berlin win3.0%32.95
- Double chance Bayern München or draw97.0%1.03
- Double chance Bayern München or Union Berlin93.6%1.07
- Double chance Union Berlin or draw9.5%10.57
- Draw no bet Bayern München96.8%1.03
- Draw no bet Union Berlin3.2%30.84
Goals
- Over 0.599.1%1.01
- Over 1.595.8%1.04
- Over 2.586.9%1.15
- Over 3.572.4%1.38
- Over 4.554.5%1.83
- Under 1.54.2%23.93
- Under 2.513.1%7.61
- Under 3.527.6%3.62
Both teams to score
- Yes55.0%1.82
- No45.0%2.22
- Yes and over 2.552.5%1.91
- Bayern München win and yes47.2%2.12
- Draw and yes5.6%17.97
- Union Berlin win and yes2.2%44.53
Team goals
- Bayern München over 0.598.4%1.02
- Bayern München over 1.591.6%1.09
- Bayern München over 2.577.7%1.29
- Union Berlin over 0.555.8%1.79
- Union Berlin over 1.519.7%5.07
- Union Berlin over 2.55.0%20.06
- Bayern München clean sheet44.2%2.26
- Union Berlin clean sheet1.6%60.80
- Bayern München win to nil43.3%2.31
- Union Berlin win to nil0.8%126.79
Handicap
- Bayern München −1.578.9%1.27
- Bayern München −2.562.3%1.61
- Union Berlin +1.521.1%4.75
- Union Berlin +2.537.7%2.65
- Union Berlin −1.50.8%120.39
- Bayern München +1.599.2%1.01
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Bundesliga 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored235
Favourite won56.6%
Avg chance given to result43.2%
1X2 Brier0.560
Over 2.5 called right60.4%
BTTS called right56.2%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 31 | 38.3% | 38.7% |
| 40–50% | 71 | 45.0% | 43.7% |
| 50–60% | 66 | 55.2% | 62.1% |
| 60–70% | 38 | 64.5% | 71.1% |
| 70–80% | 19 | 74.2% | 73.7% |
| 80%+ | 10 | 85.9% | 80.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 188 of 235 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5517 | 0.5466 |
| Avg chance given to result | 43.6% | 43.3% |
| Favourite won | 58.0% | 58.5% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 188 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
Latest results
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 235 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.