Bayern München
Attack—
Defense risk—
Bayern München
1st · 67 pts · 26 played
WWWWD
4–0Full time
Union Berlin
9th · 31 pts · 26 played
LWLLW
Our take
Bayern München were clear favourites.
Bayern München were the stronger side on L90 Strength (94 vs 42). Bayern München usually keep the ball (65% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Bayern München had 7 days of rest, Union Berlin 5.9 and had to travel 505 km.
Away travel505 kmRest days7 · 5.9Matches / 14d1 · 2
Bayern München91%
Draw6%
Union Berlin3%
Bayern München85%
Draw11%
Union Berlin4%
Bayern München91%
Draw6%
Union Berlin3%
Bayern München86%
Draw9%
Union Berlin5%
Bayern München88%
Draw8%
Union Berlin4%
Over 2.5 87%
Both score 55%
Likeliest score 4–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (München)
No weather data yet
RefereePatrick Ittrich
- Cards per match 3.8
- Penalties per match 0.36
- Matches 45
Team strength
Bayern MünchenUnion Berlin
94
L90 StrengthIn forecast
42
93
Current StrengthIn forecast
39
96
AttackIn forecast
42
90
DefenceIn forecast
41
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisUnion Berlin
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Bayern MünchenUnion Berlin
3.58
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.19
0.96
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.62
2.61
xGVia Att/Def
1.22
1.06
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.29
+0.97
Goals minus xGContext
-0.03
100%
Scored inContext
73%
35%
Clean sheetsContext
23%
18.04
ShotsContext
11.85
8.31
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.42
46%
On target shareContext
29%
12.42
Shots in the boxContext
9.04
70%
Box shareContext
74%
20%
ConversionContext
10%
2.44
OffsidesContext
1.90
9.88
Shots allowedContext
12.35
2.72
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.19
3.32
BlocksContext
3.73
2.10
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.04
70%
Save rateContext
67%
66%
PossessionIn forecast
38%
683
PassesContext
310
616
Accurate passesContext
222
90%
Pass accuracyContext
72%
7.18
Team ratingContext
6.73
9.15
FoulsContext
12.54
8.77
Fouls sufferedContext
9.92
1.73
Yellow cardsContext
2.31
0.04
Red cardsContext
0.12
3.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.90
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.70
2.88
xGVia Att/Def
1.20
1.57
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.36
+0.42
Goals minus xGContext
-0.30
100%
Scored inContext
80%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
18.40
ShotsContext
11.40
8.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.10
48%
On target shareContext
27%
12.10
Shots in the boxContext
9.33
67%
Box shareContext
75%
18%
ConversionContext
8%
1.60
OffsidesContext
2.00
12.10
Shots allowedContext
12.60
4.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
3.10
BlocksContext
3.63
3.44
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.78
74%
Save rateContext
64%
63%
PossessionIn forecast
39%
642
PassesContext
309
580
Accurate passesContext
218
90%
Pass accuracyContext
71%
7.23
Team ratingContext
6.66
9.70
FoulsContext
12.70
10.00
Fouls sufferedContext
9.20
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Bayern München
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km923 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Union Berlin
Rest5.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel505 km1,279 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Bayern München |
Union Berlin |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Bundesliga 2025-2026, 14 Mar | 5.9Bundesliga 2025-2026, 15 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 505 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 923 km | 1,279 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 14 | 15 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Bayern München
Confirmed XI
40J. Urbig(G)
27K. Laimer
3M. Kim
2D. Upamecano
44J. Stanišić
8L. Goretzka
6J. Kimmich
7S. Gnabry
42Lennart Karl
17M. Olise
9H. Kane
Union Berlin
Confirmed XI
1F. Rønnow(G)
34S. Nsoki
14L. Querfeld
5D. Doekhi
39D. Köhn
8R. Khedira
6A. Kemlein
19J. Haberer
28C. Trimmel
9Livan Burcu
21T. Skarke
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Bayern München
Scores -0.10 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Union Berlin
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.10 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Bayern München-0.3 pp
- Draw+0.2 pp
- Union Berlin+0.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Bayern München · Home
2.62points per game · 13 home games
- W-D-L
- 11-1-1
- Scored
- 4.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Union Berlin · Away
1.08points per game · 13 away games
- W-D-L
- 4-2-7
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.62
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Bayern München | Union Berlin |
|---|---|---|
| Bayer Leverkusen | D 1–1 AW 3–0 H | W 1–0 HL 0–2 A |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | W 4–1 HW 3–0 A | L 0–1 AW 3–1 H |
| Borussia Dortmund | W 3–2 AW 2–1 H | L 0–3 HL 0–3 A |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | W 3–2 HW 3–0 A | D 1–1 HW 4–3 A |
| Werder Bremen | W 3–0 AW 4–0 H | L 1–4 HL 0–1 A |
| 1899 Hoffenheim | W 5–1 HW 4–1 A | L 1–3 AL 2–4 H |
| Hamburger SV | D 2–2 AW 5–0 H | L 2–3 AD 0–0 H |
| FC Augsburg | L 1–2 HW 3–2 A | D 1–1 A |
| RB Leipzig | W 5–1 AW 6–0 H | W 3–1 H |
| 1.FC Köln | W 3–1 A | W 1–0 A |
| VfL Wolfsburg | W 8–1 H | L 1–3 A |
| 1. FC Heidenheim | W 4–0 A | L 1–2 H |
| FSV Mainz 05 | D 2–2 H | D 2–2 H |
| VfB Stuttgart | W 5–0 A | D 1–1 AW 2–1 H |
| FC St. Pauli | W 3–1 H | W 1–0 A |
| SC Freiburg | W 6–2 H | W 1–0 AD 0–0 H |
| Points | 66 of 75 · 2.64 per game | 30 of 75 · 1.20 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings
6 Bayern München wins3 draws0 Union Berlin wins
Goals per game2.78 – 0.78
Over 2.567%
Both scored56%
Clean sheets44% · 0%
- 8 Nov 2025Union Berlin2–2Bayern München
- 15 Mar 2025Union Berlin1–1Bayern München
- 2 Nov 2024Bayern München3–0Union Berlin
- 20 Apr 2024Union Berlin1–5Bayern München
- 24 Jan 2024Bayern München1–0Union Berlin
- 26 Feb 2023Bayern München3–0Union Berlin
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Bayern München | Union Berlin | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 3.58 | 1.19 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.96 | 1.62 | |
| Match goals | 4.54 | 2.81 | 4.93 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 69% | |
| Over 2.5 | 96% | 54% | 87% |
| Over 3.5 | 73% | 38% | |
| Both teams scored | 65% | 58% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 35% | 23% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 27% | |
| Games | 26 | 26 |
| Bayern München | Union Berlin | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 3.00 | 0.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 1.70 | |
| Match goals | 4.30 | 2.60 | 4.93 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 90% | 40% | 87% |
| Over 3.5 | 70% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 90% | 60% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Bayern München | Union Berlin | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.71 | 4.48 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.50 | 4.32 | |
| Match total | 9.21 | 8.80 | 9.57 |
| Over 8.5 | 54% 13/24 | 64% 16/25 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 12/24 | 40% 10/25 | |
| Over 10.5 | 29% 7/24 | 20% 5/25 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.81 | 2.46 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.73 | 2.12 | |
| Match total | 3.54 | 4.58 | 3.85 |
| Over 3.5 | 46% 12/26 | 65% 17/26 | |
| Over 4.5 | 35% 9/26 | 50% 13/26 | |
| Bayern München | Union Berlin | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.60 | 4.30 | |
| Corners conceded | 2.80 | 3.80 | |
| Match total | 8.40 | 8.10 | 9.57 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 2.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.60 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 4.60 | 4.10 | 3.85 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Patrick Ittrich 45 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.71league 3.70
Red cards0.07league 0.17
Cards 5+36%league 37%
Fouls25.0league 20.5
Penalties0.36league 0.36
Home wins49%league 46%
Bayern München4 with this referee
Record4-0-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 0.8
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W14 Jan 26A · 1.FC Köln3–10
- W9 Mar 24H · FSV Mainz 058–11
- W30 Apr 23H · Hertha BSC2–02
- W9 Apr 22H · FC Augsburg1–01
Union Berlin6 with this referee
Record2-1-3
Cards · opp.1.7 · 1.7
Pens for · against1 · 0
Reds1
- L29 Nov 25H · 1. FC Heidenheim1–23
- L7 Oct 23A · Borussia Dortmund2–41
- W26 Aug 23A · SV Darmstadt 984–12
- W27 May 23H · Werder Bremen1–01
- D29 Apr 22H · SpVgg Greuther Fürth1–12
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Bayern München26 games · scored 93 · conceded 25
6
4
0-15
17
4
16-30
17
4
31-45
10
2
46-60
16
2
61-75
27
9
76-90
Union Berlin26 games · scored 31 · conceded 42
2
2
0-15
6
2
16-30
4
14
31-45
4
8
46-60
4
3
61-75
11
13
76-90
Bayern München10 games · scored 33 · conceded 12
1
1
0-15
8
1
16-30
5
2
31-45
7
1
46-60
8
61-75
4
7
76-90
Union Berlin10 games · scored 9 · conceded 17
1
0-15
3
16-30
7
31-45
3
46-60
1
1
61-75
5
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
