Bournemouth
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Aston Villa were the stronger side on L90 Strength (87 vs 73). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Bournemouth. Bournemouth had 7 days of rest, Aston Villa 6 and had to travel 196 km.
Away travel196 kmRest days7 · 6Matches / 14d2 · 3
Bournemouth36%
Draw25%
Aston Villa39%
Bournemouth31%
Draw27%
Aston Villa42%
Bournemouth35%
Draw25%
Aston Villa40%
Bournemouth29%
Draw25%
Aston Villa47%
Bournemouth36%
Draw26%
Aston Villa38%
Over 2.5 58%
Both score 61%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Bournemouth, Dorset)
No weather data yet
RefereeAnthony Taylor
- Cards per match 3.9
- Penalties per match 0.25
- Matches 200
Team strength
Bournemouth
Aston Villa
73
L90 StrengthIn forecast
87
75
Current StrengthIn forecast
82
83
AttackIn forecast
83
82
DefenceIn forecast
78
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAston Villa
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
BournemouthAston Villa
1.67
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.46
1.79
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.08
1.58
xGVia Att/Def
1.29
1.45
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.41
+0.09
Goals minus xGContext
+0.17
83%
Scored inContext
67%
25%
Clean sheetsContext
29%
13.38
ShotsContext
12.67
4.79
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.50
36%
On target shareContext
36%
8.52
Shots in the boxContext
8.39
61%
Box shareContext
62%
13%
ConversionContext
12%
2.17
OffsidesContext
1.67
12.83
Shots allowedContext
12.63
4.75
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.08
3.92
BlocksContext
4.08
3.27
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.96
65%
Save rateContext
71%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
403
PassesContext
450
322
Accurate passesContext
382
80%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.82
Team ratingContext
6.90
12.42
FoulsContext
9.79
10.29
Fouls sufferedContext
13.42
2.42
Yellow cardsContext
1.46
0.04
Red cardsContext
0.04
2.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
2.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.10
1.99
xGVia Att/Def
1.67
1.84
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.50
+0.11
Goals minus xGContext
-0.27
100%
Scored inContext
70%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
14.70
ShotsContext
14.80
5.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.60
38%
On target shareContext
38%
9.20
Shots in the boxContext
9.40
63%
Box shareContext
64%
14%
ConversionContext
10%
1.78
OffsidesContext
1.00
16.00
Shots allowedContext
12.70
5.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.00
5.20
BlocksContext
4.10
3.56
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.11
63%
Save rateContext
77%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
56%
357
PassesContext
482
271
Accurate passesContext
415
76%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.82
Team ratingContext
6.91
12.40
FoulsContext
9.40
9.00
Fouls sufferedContext
12.90
2.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Bournemouth
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km416 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Aston Villa
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel196 km555 km in 14d
Schedule load15%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Bournemouth |
Aston Villa |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 15 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Premier League 2025-2026, 31 Jan | 6Premier League 2025-2026, 1 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 196 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 416 km | 555 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 3 / 5 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 3.2 | 4.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Bournemouth
Confirmed XI
1Đ. Petrović(G)
3A. Truffert
5M. Senesi
23J. Hill
20Álex Jiménez
8A. Scott
4L. Cook
21A. Adli
22E. Kroupi
37Rayan
9Evanilson
Aston Villa
Confirmed XI
23E. Martínez(G)
12L. Digne
5T. Mings
4E. Konsa
2M. Cash
21Douglas Luiz
24A. Onana
10E. Buendía
27M. Rogers
19J. Sancho
11O. Watkins
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Bournemouth
Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Aston Villa
Scores -0.06 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Bournemouth+0.5 pp
- Draw+0.1 pp
- Aston Villa-0.6 pp
Home / Away this season
Bournemouth · Home
1.83points per game · 12 home games
- W-D-L
- 6-4-2
- Scored
- 1.58
- Conceded
- 1.08
Aston Villa · Away
1.75points per game · 12 away games
- W-D-L
- 6-3-3
- Scored
- 1.42
- Conceded
- 1.33
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Bournemouth | Aston Villa |
|---|---|---|
| Wolves | W 2–0 AW 1–0 H | W 1–0 H |
| Liverpool | W 3–2 HL 2–4 A | L 0–2 A |
| Brighton | D 1–1 AW 2–1 H | W 4–3 A |
| Tottenham | W 3–2 HW 1–0 A | W 2–1 A |
| Arsenal | L 2–3 H | L 1–4 AW 2–1 H |
| Chelsea | D 2–2 AD 0–0 H | W 2–1 A |
| Brentford | L 1–4 A | L 0–1 HL 0–1 A |
| Burnley | D 1–1 H | W 2–1 H |
| Manchester United | D 4–4 A | W 2–1 H |
| Everton | L 0–1 H | L 0–1 HD 0–0 A |
| Sunderland | L 2–3 A | D 1–1 A |
| West Ham | D 2–2 H | W 3–2 A |
| Manchester City | L 1–3 A | W 1–0 H |
| Nottingham Forest | W 2–0 H | W 3–1 H |
| Crystal Palace | D 3–3 A | D 0–0 AL 0–3 H |
| Fulham | W 3–1 H | W 3–1 H |
| Leeds | D 2–2 A | W 2–1 A |
| Newcastle | D 0–0 H | W 2–0 AD 0–0 H |
| Points | 33 of 69 · 1.43 per game | 43 of 69 · 1.87 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings
1 Bournemouth wins2 draws4 Aston Villa wins
Goals per game0.86 – 2.00
Over 2.557%
Both scored43%
Clean sheets14% · 43%
- 9 Nov 2025Aston Villa4–0Bournemouth
- 10 May 2025Bournemouth0–1Aston Villa
- 26 Oct 2024Aston Villa1–1Bournemouth
- 21 Apr 2024Aston Villa3–1Bournemouth
- 3 Dec 2023Bournemouth2–2Aston Villa
- 18 Mar 2023Aston Villa3–0Bournemouth
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Bournemouth | Aston Villa | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.67 | 1.46 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.79 | 1.08 | |
| Match goals | 3.46 | 2.54 | 3.01 |
| Over 1.5 | 79% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 63% | 54% | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | 58% | 25% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 50% | 61% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 29% | |
| Failed to score | 17% | 33% | |
| Games | 24 | 24 |
| Bournemouth | Aston Villa | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.90 | 1.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.90 | 1.10 | |
| Match goals | 3.80 | 2.50 | 3.01 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 50% | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | 60% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 50% | 61% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Bournemouth | Aston Villa | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.50 | 5.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.68 | 4.58 | |
| Match total | 11.18 | 9.91 | 10.00 |
| Over 8.5 | 77% 17/22 | 71% 17/24 | |
| Over 9.5 | 68% 15/22 | 67% 16/24 | |
| Over 10.5 | 59% 13/22 | 46% 11/24 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.46 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.08 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 4.54 | 4.00 | 3.86 |
| Over 3.5 | 71% 17/24 | 58% 14/24 | |
| Over 4.5 | 46% 11/24 | 33% 8/24 | |
| Bournemouth | Aston Villa | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.70 | 5.70 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.80 | 3.80 | |
| Match total | 12.50 | 9.50 | 10.00 |
| Over 8.5 | 90% 9/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 80% 8/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 70% 7/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.50 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.70 | 2.60 | |
| Match total | 4.20 | 4.30 | 3.86 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Anthony Taylor 200 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.72league 3.71
Red cards0.15league 0.12
Cards 5+35%league 38%
Fouls20.9league 21.3
Penalties0.25league 0.20
Home wins36%league 45%
Bournemouth8 with this referee
Record0-2-6
Cards · opp.2.5 · 2.9
Pens for · against1 · 0
- L2 Nov 25A · Manchester City1–32
- L15 Aug 25A · Liverpool2–42
- L14 Sep 24H · Chelsea0–16
- L19 May 24A · Chelsea1–23
- D9 Mar 24H · Sheffield Utd2–23
Aston Villa10 with this referee
Record7-2-1
Cards · opp.2.6 · 2.9
Pens for · against2 · 0
Reds2
- W14 Dec 25A · West Ham3–22
- L26 Dec 24A · Newcastle0–32
- D22 Dec 23H · Sheffield Utd1–13
- W20 Aug 23H · Everton4–03
- W8 Apr 23H · Nottingham Forest2–03
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Bournemouth24 games · scored 40 · conceded 43
7
5
0-15
7
5
16-30
7
8
31-45
2
7
46-60
5
5
61-75
12
13
76-90
Aston Villa24 games · scored 35 · conceded 26
1
6
0-15
4
3
16-30
8
4
31-45
7
5
46-60
6
4
61-75
9
4
76-90
Bournemouth9 games · scored 19 · conceded 19
2
4
0-15
3
2
16-30
5
3
31-45
2
2
46-60
2
1
61-75
5
7
76-90
Aston Villa10 games · scored 14 · conceded 11
0-15
3
16-30
2
3
31-45
1
5
46-60
3
2
61-75
5
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
