Bournemouth vs Liverpool – 24 Jan 2026

Premier League Gameweek 23 Sat, Jan 24 · 17:30 Vitality Stadium, Bournemouth, Dorset

Bournemouth 15th · 27 pts · 22 played LDLWD

3–2Full time

Liverpool 4th · 36 pts · 22 played WDDDD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Liverpool were slight favourites.

Liverpool were the stronger side on L90 Strength (88 vs 70). Absences weigh more on Bournemouth. Bournemouth had 4.9 days of rest, Liverpool 7.1 and had to travel 308 km.

Away travel308 kmRest days4.9 · 7.1Matches / 14d1 · 1

Bournemouth26%

Draw25%

Liverpool49%

Expected goals 1.23 – 1.74

Bournemouth28%

Draw26%

Liverpool46%

Expected goals 1.15 – 1.55

Bournemouth27%

Draw25%

Liverpool48%

Expected goals 1.24 – 1.71

Bournemouth20%

Draw23%

Liverpool57%

Expected goals 1.10 – 1.95

Bournemouth27%

Draw26%

Liverpool47%

Expected goals 1.15 – 1.58

Over 2.5 57% Both score 59% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Bournemouth, Dorset)

No weather data yet

RefereeMichael Salisbury

Cards per match 3.9
Penalties per match 0.31
Matches 81

Team strength

Bournemouth

Liverpool

70 L90 StrengthIn forecast 88

77 Current StrengthIn forecast 84

83 AttackIn forecast 85

82 DefenceIn forecast 84

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Bournemouth

Attack—

Defense risk—

Liverpool

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Bournemouth

Liverpool

1.59 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.50

1.86 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.32

1.56 xGVia Att/Def 1.61

1.48 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.10

+0.03 Goals minus xGContext -0.11

82% Scored inContext 82%

23% Clean sheetsContext 32%

13.64 ShotsContext 15.50

4.82 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.52

35% On target shareContext 28%

8.57 Shots in the boxContext 10.00

59% Box shareContext 64%

12% ConversionContext 10%

2.18 OffsidesContext 2.63

12.59 Shots allowedContext 10.59

4.68 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.95

3.86 BlocksContext 3.24

3.15 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.68

63% Save rateContext 66%

50% PossessionIn forecast 62%

405 PassesContext 558

323 Accurate passesContext 482

80% Pass accuracyContext 86%

6.79 Team ratingContext 6.94

12.55 FoulsContext 9.36

10.41 Fouls sufferedContext 10.64

2.45 Yellow cardsContext 1.68

0.05 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 22 and 22 games

1.60 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.70

2.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.60

1.81 xGVia Att/Def 1.58

1.84 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.89

-0.21 Goals minus xGContext +0.12

80% Scored inContext 80%

10% Clean sheetsContext 50%

14.40 ShotsContext 15.30

5.40 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.89

38% On target shareContext 29%

9.33 Shots in the boxContext 9.60

60% Box shareContext 63%

11% ConversionContext 11%

1.90 OffsidesContext 2.78

15.30 Shots allowedContext 9.90

4.80 On target allowedVia Att/Def 2.80

4.90 BlocksContext 3.10

3.22 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.56

62% Save rateContext 89%

44% PossessionIn forecast 60%

361 PassesContext 594

272 Accurate passesContext 523

75% Pass accuracyContext 88%

6.76 Team ratingContext 7.08

13.10 FoulsContext 7.50

9.90 Fouls sufferedContext 10.20

2.40 Yellow cardsContext 1.10

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Bournemouth

Rest4.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km255 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Liverpool

Rest7.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel308 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Bournemouth	Liverpool
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	4.9Premier League 2025-2026, 19 Jan	7.1Premier League 2025-2026, 17 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	308 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	255 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 4	0 / 1 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	6.9	7.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Bournemouth Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1Đ. Petrović(G)

3A. Truffert 5M. Senesi 23J. Hill 15A. Smith

4L. Cook 8A. Scott

21A. Adli 22E. Kroupi 20Álex Jiménez

9Evanilson

+9 more reported missing outside this XI

Liverpool Confirmed XI

4-2-2-2

1A. Becker(G)

6M. Kerkez 4V. van Dijk 2J. Gomez 30J. Frimpong

10A. Mac Allister 38R. Gravenberch

7F. Wirtz 8D. Szoboszlai

18C. Gakpo 11Mohamed Salah

+7 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Bournemouth Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Liverpool Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Bournemouth-0.7 pp
Draw-0.3 pp
Liverpool+1.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Bournemouth · Home 1.73points per game · 11 home games

W-D-L: 5-4-2
Scored: 1.45
Conceded: 1.00

Liverpool · Away 1.36points per game · 11 away games

W-D-L: 4-3-4
Scored: 1.55
Conceded: 1.64

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

Opponent	Bournemouth	Liverpool
Brighton	D 1–1 AW 2–1 H	W 2–0 H
Tottenham	W 3–2 HW 1–0 A	W 2–1 A
Arsenal	L 2–3 H	D 0–0 AW 1–0 H
Chelsea	D 2–2 AD 0–0 H	L 1–2 A
Brentford	L 1–4 A	L 2–3 A
Burnley	D 1–1 H	D 1–1 HW 1–0 A
Manchester United	D 4–4 A	L 1–2 H
Everton	L 0–1 H	W 2–1 H
Sunderland	L 2–3 A	D 1–1 H
West Ham	D 2–2 H	W 2–0 A
Aston Villa	L 0–4 A	W 2–0 H
Manchester City	L 1–3 A	L 0–3 A
Nottingham Forest	W 2–0 H	L 0–3 H
Crystal Palace	D 3–3 A	L 1–2 A
Fulham	W 3–1 H	D 2–2 A
Leeds	D 2–2 A	D 0–0 HD 3–3 A
Newcastle	D 0–0 H	W 3–2 A
Wolves	W 1–0 H	W 2–1 H
Points	27 of 63 · 1.29 per game	33 of 63 · 1.57 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings

1 Bournemouth wins0 draws6 Liverpool wins

Goals per game0.57 – 3.57 Over 2.571% Both scored29% Clean sheets14% · 57%

15 Aug 2025Liverpool4–2Bournemouth
1 Feb 2025Bournemouth0–2Liverpool
21 Sep 2024Liverpool3–0Bournemouth
21 Jan 2024Bournemouth0–4Liverpool
19 Aug 2023Liverpool3–1Bournemouth
11 Mar 2023Bournemouth1–0Liverpool

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Bournemouth	Liverpool	Forecast
Scored per game	1.59	1.50
Conceded per game	1.86	1.32
Match goals	3.45	2.82	2.97
Over 1.5	77%	82%
Over 2.5	64%	59%	57%
Over 3.5	59%	23%
Both teams scored	68%	59%	59%
Clean sheets	23%	32%
Failed to score	18%	18%
Games	22	22

	Bournemouth	Liverpool	Forecast
Scored per game	1.60	1.50
Conceded per game	2.10	0.90
Match goals	3.70	2.40	2.97
Over 1.5	80%	80%
Over 2.5	60%	40%	57%
Over 3.5	60%	20%
Both teams scored	80%	60%	59%
Clean sheets	10%	40%
Failed to score	20%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Bournemouth	Liverpool	League
Corners
Corners won	5.60	5.57
Corners conceded	5.45	4.38
Match total	11.05	9.95	9.92
Over 8.5	75% 15/20	76% 16/21
Over 9.5	65% 13/20	52% 11/21
Over 10.5	55% 11/20	38% 8/21
Cards
Cards	2.50	1.68
Opponent cards	2.09	2.09
Match total	4.59	3.77	3.87
Over 3.5	73% 16/22	50% 11/22
Over 4.5	45% 10/22	32% 7/22

	Bournemouth	Liverpool	League
Corners
Corners won	5.44	6.33
Corners conceded	6.44	3.67
Match total	11.88	10.00	9.92
Over 8.5	78% 7/9	78% 7/9
Over 9.5	67% 6/9	67% 6/9
Over 10.5	56% 5/9	44% 4/9
Cards
Cards	2.40	1.10
Opponent cards	1.80	2.00
Match total	4.20	3.10	3.87
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	30% 3/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Michael Salisbury 81 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.65league 3.74

Red cards0.21league 0.10

Cards 5+38%league 38%

Fouls22.4league 21.3

Penalties0.31league 0.21

Home wins49%league 46%

Bournemouth8 with this referee

Record2-1-5 Cards · opp.2.4 · 1.6 Pens for · against0 · 3 Reds1

L2 Dec 25H · Everton0–13
L22 Feb 25H · Wolves0–14
D17 Feb 24A · Newcastle2–23
L30 Sep 23H · Arsenal0–40
L13 May 23A · Crystal Palace0–22

Liverpool

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.